40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/29/2024 at 10:27 PM, Damage In Tolland said: This time of year unless the column is cold like Napril 82.. you’ll need elevation for big amounts . Especially spread out over 3 days Expand Not necessarily...interior valleys are worse than the interior CP....especially north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/29/2024 at 10:54 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Unless it trends south .. south of ORH won’t see anything significant . And I fully expect to wake up tomorrow to moves north . Of course I hope that’s not the case, but these don’t typically trend south as you get closer in Expand It may not trend as far south as everyone in SNE would like, but I don't expect this to march northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:04 AM, ORH_wxman said: Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. Expand I think significant threat is from around my area and northward on the CP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:04 AM, ORH_wxman said: Tonight and tomorrow will be pretty big for the confidence of this storm track. Typically if you’re gonna see a big move, it’s that period from 120ish to getting inside of 100 hours. The biggest threat zone right now is prob something like western Maine foothills (like Bridgton and lakes regions there) down through dendrite-land into Monads, N ORH hills and Berks/S VT. Expand Agreed. Basically the climo normal zone for coastal storms with marginal thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 As much as i don't want anymore of it, Were in the prime spot for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2024 Author Share Posted March 30, 2024 It’s a coarse model that probably isn’t very good… but the JMA’s 12z took 24 hrs to get to this arrangement below, a time span in which everyone remains below 0C at 850mb the whole way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 The EURO AI continues to be waaaaay north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:23 AM, dryslot said: As much as i don't want anymore of it, Were in the prime spot for it. Expand I could see your area cleaning up, I remember the 97 storm I didn't snow blow, I let the April sun melt it and just plowed through it with my 4 wheel drive truck for two days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 Even at 7-8:1, Do the math 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 No math needed for many in sne on that AI run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No math needed for many in sne on that AI run. Expand Warm here too, Foothills mtns get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 Still snowing too... 18z EPS hr144 (2pm Thursday)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:36 AM, DavisStraight said: I could see your area cleaning up, I remember the 97 storm I didn't snow blow, I let the April sun melt it and just plowed through it with my 4 wheel drive truck for two days. Expand Correctamundo. That is exactly my plan. Already took the plow off the yard donkey and she ain't going back on. But hopefully tree and utility line damage far and wide for all to enjoy and remember, with no risk of dangerous cold after the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not necessarily...interior valleys are worse than the interior CP....especially north. Expand @NoCORH4LWhat I mean is that often times in marginal Spring snow storms, the interior valleys struggle more than the coastal plain of interior NE MA....largely due to the fact that there is no element of downslope on the coastal plain during these storms, which can be fatal when thermals are borderline. Additionally, if there is a cold source north of ME, then it can funnel into this area. Take a look at some of the snow maps from historic spring storms.....there is often an appendage of somewhat higher amounts arching from the ORH hills into interior ne MA. This is especially relevant here since the primary may be gaining quite bit of latitude prior to the transfer. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 2:16 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: @NoCORH4LWhat I mean is that often times in marginal Spring snow storms, the interior valleys struggle more than the coastal plain of interior NE MA....largely due to the fact that there is no element of downslope on the coastal plain during these storms, which can be fatal when thermals are borderline. Additionally, if there is a cold source north of ME, then it can funnel into this area. Take a look at some of the snow maps from historic spring storms.....there is often an appendage of somewhat higher amounts arching from the ORH hills into interior ne MA. This is especially relevant here since the primary may be gaining quite bit of latitude prior to the transfer. Expand Basically comparing the CT Valley with the coastal plain… the northern MA coastal plain historically does better on deep layer east flow than the CT Valley in MA/CT. Climo wise it favors Essex and Middlesex counties over CEF/BDL/HFD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 3:06 AM, powderfreak said: Basically comparing the CT Valley with the coastal plain… the northern MA coastal plain historically does better on deep layer east flow than the CT Valley in MA/CT. Climo wise it favors Essex and Middlesex counties over CEF/BDL/HFD. Expand Yep, exactly. My first post wasn't very clear, so I get the initial confusion. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:46 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: No math needed for many in sne on that AI run. Expand Are you excited? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 1:36 AM, DavisStraight said: I could see your area cleaning up, I remember the 97 storm I didn't snow blow, I let the April sun melt it and just plowed through it with my 4 wheel drive truck for two days. Expand That is the play, 16 inches fell here days ago, and it's all gone. In N VT, we've had so many mud seasons this year that the roads are fine too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 I knew there was a reason no one commented on the 00z GFS... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 4:06 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew there was a reason no one commented on the 00z GFS... Expand disjointed mess, less effective phasing, ss is more able to run ahead of ns 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 4:11 AM, SnowLover22 said: disjointed mess, less effective phasing, ss is more able to run ahead of ns Expand Like the AI. Just check the ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 0z Canadian might be the most absurd run I've ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 4:18 AM, ma blizzard said: 0z Canadian might be the most absurd run I've ever seen Expand What's it shooting out now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 4:17 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Like the AI. Just check the ens mean. Expand NS will eventually start acting destructively with the set up if it gets too far behind. The one time the AI model is right is to ruin SNE snow chances. All jokes aside, this storm will be a good test case to see how it does vs the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 GEM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 00z GEFS are a bit better than 18z...pretty similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 4:54 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: 00z GEFS are a bit better than 18z...pretty similar. Expand Weren’t the 18z pretty decent..or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 On 3/30/2024 at 5:07 AM, WinterWolf said: Weren’t the 18z pretty decent..or no? Expand Better NOP...precarious SOP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 Pretty significant move south on the GEPS....little. Less tenuous SOP and over the CP. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 30, 2024 Share Posted March 30, 2024 -NAO exerting some press maybe….? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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