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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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Imagine if we'd had this forum in late March of 1997.

I remember funding a Boston Globe from March 28 a while after the storm and the forecast was for "partly sunny and in the 50s on March 31."

Yeah, well, no.

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

South trend continuing?

On that run/model? yeah...  Haven't seen anything but a glance at the GFS which appeared at to at least not argue. 

I noticed that the 500 mb in the leading time intervals on this GGEM run ends up some 3 deg latitude deeper along the M/A, before the cyclogenesis dynamic feedback repositions the whole structure to what amounts to the idealized position/climate reference for absolute maximization.  Yikes.  Very deep while at that location, too.

Cold is is NOT in short supply, either ... as I heavily demonstrated in the thread opener, there is a big sprawling cold lower tropospheric anomaly in situ, prior to all this unfolding.  Considering the seasonal warming signals is still alive and well S of NJ... that sets the domain table with am acutely explosive potential.  That's probably why we're seeing some upper 960s mb low results coming out ( 00z Euro and this ICON ..etc)

This goes form a significant season ending/blue bomb snow,  to a historic suggestion should this continue - won't pull that trigger yet at this range ahead.  But I will caution, big events in history almost always have an usually long lead with more coherent than normal actualized charting. 

I'd say this system has a lot of upshot potential in general though.  It has a ceiling that is very high.  It's anchored by the index mode rate of change, which is also  in constructive interference with the  wave mechanical movement through the field - we've observed good index signaling in the past but the flow itself being so fast detracts from realized physics.  The models have gone and set up a big one here at the time of the year when the speed of the flow is stepping off the accelerator - that means the physics can be tapped.  

So we'll see

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