Typhoon Tip Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ... A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada ...infiltrated throughout the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain. This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to a phenomenally exquisite expression of that. Given to the high correlation, notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up. Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season. As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ... strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away. Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending. But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact. What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm. This already has the look from all sources, and has been a recurrent theme over the past week. Dynamic height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk. It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has a 100 pages by the 5th of the month... I also am aware that interest in winter -related subject matter may be diminishing at this point. Seasonal awareness, along with just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it. It is noted that the 00z Euro CCB's the hell out of interior and eastern SNE out of this ordeal. It is also something that we haven't seen much of in recent years, a slower moving event. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Significant Miller B Nor'easter potential is signaled across Apr 3rd-4th ... A chilly 850 mb anomaly is in position over SE Canada ...infiltrated through the eastern GL and NE England regions, prior to a strong -NAO maxing over the western limb of the domain. This aspect is situated while there is an undercutting trough of significant amplitude. Any kind of emergent trough is highly statistically correlated with this particular kind of -NAO expression, but below we see what really amounts to an phenomenally exquisite expression of that. Given to the high correlation, notwithstanding the "stable look" to this synoptic evolution ... confidence is quite high for at least the general set up. Anomalously high baroclinic instability in situ despite the lateness of the date/spring season. As the above mid and upper level events unfold over top that lower level temperature gradient ( see the 850 mb charts from the operational Euro/GFS/GGEM further above) ... strong cyclogenesis is well within the realm of possibilities, and the only limitation on this as far as I can see given these rather elegantly, yet glaringly obvious precursor metrics is the fact that this above is about 144 to 156 hours away. Unfortunately ... confidence is only very high for an event. What that event's particulars will mean as far as specific impacts is still pending. But sufficed it is to say ...this is a classic leading layout for late season snow impact. What is also interesting about this - from a personal anecdotal/experience perspective, these spring storms tend to actually be modeled more marginal/warmer than this, at this sort of time range - only to tick colder as the time nears to a 'blue timber bender' storm. This already has a look. Dynamics height falls and just wholesale evolution of common winter metrics that are involved, snow would be a slam dunk. It's worth it to follow this ...lest the new April thread has a 100 pages by the 5th of the month... I also am aware that interest in winter is both diminishing at this point, for seasonal awareness and probably just issue fatigue for having been abused so mercilessly over the last 4 months ( LOL )... but it is what it. Unfortunately yes, This has huge negative implications up here verbatim if models end up correct, The grid would take another beating on a statewide level this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Thanks for the jinx 1 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 12z ICON gone wild for higher elevations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 most of SNE does flip to snow though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: most of SNE does flip to snow though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Even ern areas, pretty wild Wed night into Thurs morning on ICON. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Even ern areas, pretty wild Wed night into Thurs morning on ICON. Not bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Even ern areas, pretty wild Wed night into Thurs morning on ICON. Don't do it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Don't do it. I think he's done it. Feverishly hitting F5 on the GFS run as we speak 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, MaineJayhawk said: I think he's done it. Feverishly hitting F5 on the GFS run as we speak and if he isn't, I surely am! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 minutes ago, MaineJayhawk said: I think he's done it. Feverishly hitting F5 on the GFS run as we speak Liking the south shift and CAA at 925 from the east. I won't do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 GFS looks like it might be a fun run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, CoastalWx said: Liking the south shift and CAA at 925 from the east. I won't do it. lol just do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Liking the south shift and CAA at 925 from the east. I won't do it. Oh but you will, Its trending that way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 this run looks like it will be pretty sweet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 The GFS is not backing down one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Monster for NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: this run looks like it will be pretty sweet here Gradient shifted south Nice run incoming for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 This run is the definition of "days and days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 crushed here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Bumped north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, ma blizzard said: This run is the definition of "days and days" Of power outages. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Bumped north No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 just keeps regenerating precip awesome run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Wow monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 It’s so weird seeing the gfs with nukes every run and not a strung out wave 200 miles offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, dendrite said: It’s so weird seeing the gfs with nukes every run and not a strung out wave 200 miles offshore. Hasn't wavered very much for several cycles now, If anything, Its ticking colder for areas into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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