RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Beautiful thankfully there are no signs of sustained dews. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There is no winter anymore. Yep. Can't wait for another season of phantom pattern change calls, busted temps and snowfall forecasts 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep. Can't wait for another season of phantom pattern change calls, busted temps and snowfall forecasts You know the tide will eventually change. Hopefully rather sooner than later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You know the tide will eventually change. Hopefully rather sooner than later. It will but not likely next year-looks like the crap PAC pattern will continue for at least another year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Yep. Can't wait for another season of phantom pattern change calls, busted temps and snowfall forecasts The funny thing is ... of this list of malcontents you gave, the patterns actually did change from time to time. And were called ahead, successfully. That did not matter - that's the rub. Just sayn' 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 It would be nice if we could get a bit of a stretch with ENSO neutral conditions. It's been over decade with a persistent ENSO neutral look (at least based on ONI). I know we don't tend to stay in ENSO neutral for more than a few years at a time but it seems we're either going from one extreme to the next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Fwiw, it's 70 here already. 10 after 10 ...prooooobably doesn't apply today? heh. just a guess. Otherwise, we'd probably be 80 .. 82 degrees this afternoon. This is what the GFS was apparently designed for - to maximize the penetration misery of the 'back door' hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Mostly cloudy today ruining chances of 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 BDL 75 at 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Actually though ... being more practical for a moment: I can too clearly recall those old days of the 1990s and only having a vaguer pre-cognizant awareness that these obtrusive corrections were coming. The GFS may be right with that 44 F at BED at 18z on Wednesday - I've seen it happen in the past at this time of year. So assuming it does, I can coherently remember that was seldom seen ahead of time by the modeling 20 years ago. The resolution and improvements are outstanding - as much as we complain about the general winters, and unfairly ( probably ) scapegoat the models for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: The funny thing is ... of this list of malcontents you gave, the patterns actually did change from time to time. And were called ahead, successfully. That did not matter - that's the rub. Just sayn' Great point. This is going to get OT but I don't care. I was thinking alot about patterns, mostly when it comes to the AI crap. Obviously, understanding weather patterns is a very important part of weather forecasting, whether it be short-term, medium-range, or long-range. However, I think there is a big misconception within the field that there is a strong correlation between weather patterns and what results. For example, major severe weather outbreaks in the Great Plains typically have a deep trough digging into the West with ridging building across the East. However, not every trough digging into the West is going to produce a major severe weather outbreak. During the winter, not every ridge in the West/trough in the East is going to produce above-average snowfall here. But AI focuses on this...all about "identifying patterns" and then saving time because instead of calculating complex equations, a solution is just based on a slew of "historical patterns". BADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD Understanding the pattern and it's relevance is one thing, however, IMO what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which may not be directly related to the pattern at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mostly cloudy today ruining chances of 80 BDL is already 74/60. I think we see widespread 80+ up the CT River valley.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Getting hosed with cloud cover in Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 2 minutes ago, BrianW said: BDL is already 74/60. I think we see widespread 80+ up the CT River valley.. Not sure how . It’s been mainly cloudy . 65.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Got to 70 but wind east now. Still party sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Not sure how . It’s been mainly cloudy . 65.5 No clouds here.. Given current temperatures already running a few degrees warmerthan forecast and little in the way of clouds, bumped up forecast highs by a degree or 2 in most spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Got to 70 but wind east now. Still party sunny. It's kind of interesting ( ...sort of haha) but this isn't coming through as a BD technically. After days of bitching and and whining about it, no less. Seriously, the fronts a N-door oriented boundary. It's settling S, too - not blasting through. It's really more of a BD as it turns SW for NJ later tomorrow or whenever. But because of this aspect our winds here up along RT poopy are so far more variable N. CAA depth isn't there. In fact, at 850 mb, the thermal layout only barely dents as all this shallow misery cuts underneath this week...etc. It probably sucks for you down there given your proximity to the ocean - obviously - compared to metro west boston and out beyond 495 etc, early on. It also doesn't hurt that the band of clouds associated with the front has sliding S and we're getting a lot of sun. 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Plenty of sun here in KBED, clouds burned off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Got to 70 but wind east now. Still party sunny. yeah dropped 10 degrees already 56° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Maybe a few transient supercells across southern NY and northern PA tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Torching here-up to 76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Mostly cloudy today ruining chances of 80 You got the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 14 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It's gonna fill in up here in an hour. That stuff over VT is advecting SE pretty fast. We'll cap around 75 here and than slowly deteriorate under mostly cloudy here this afternoon. Which is fine all things considered. Like I was saying to Scott, this isn't coming through like a low level bulldozer of cold behind it like BDs of tragic lore. This will turn ugly when the wind turns east tonight and we start packing ocean smellin' low tide air and strata clear to the Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's gonna fill in up here in an hour. That stuff over VT is advecting SE pretty fast. We'll cap around 75 here and than slowly deteriorate under mostly cloudy here this afternoon. Which is fine all things considered. Like I was saying to Scott, this isn't coming through like a low level bulldozer of cold behind it like BDs of tragic lore. This will turn ugly when the wind turns east tonight and we start packing ocean smellin' low tide air and strata clear to the Berkshires. yeah the next few days are looking ugly. Hopefully we can those days out of the day now and don't have to deal with this at all moving through May but I don't think we'll get so lucky. We'll have some crap days to deal with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Only 60° here despite sun. We’ll have to wait until May to get our first 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Only 60° here despite sun. We’ll have to wait until May to get our first 70s. I bet your first 70+ day will be a high in the 80's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 46F here and thick stratus. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 30 minutes ago, dendrite said: Only 60° here despite sun. Better than our overcast 45° with a NW wind at 7 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Nice day fail 55° and pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now