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April 2024 Disco- SNE’s favorite month


HoarfrostHubb
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22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

StonedWx

32⁰ Why so personal ? Jealous of success and knowledge? Life is too short to negatively obsess over another human. Acknowledge their success and your failure and move on. As we called it in early April.  Here's another one for ya. NAO drops to -4/5 territory, don't expect any 80s anytime soon. Enjoy spring for its warm sunny days and chilly nights. Cloudy rainy days will suck in May. As always 

 

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1 hour ago, kdxken said:

I thought we were done with this nonsense. 

* Periodic rain chances through the week, first Tue/Wed then again on Friday

Yea Ole Stein back in the closet ending the week. Euro is a soaker. Want these warm sunny days so bad but NAO tanking so far spells some  doom and gloom. At least the calendar is in our favor.

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

32⁰ Why so personal ? Jealous of success and knowledge? Life is too short to negatively obsess over another human. Acknowledge their success and your failure and move on. As we called it in early April.  Here's another one for ya. NAO drops to -4/5 territory, don't expect any 80s anytime soon. Enjoy spring for its warm sunny days and chilly nights. Cloudy rainy days will suck in May. As always 

 

Screenshot_20240427_055043_Chrome.jpg

You were wildly wrong and worse, you won't admit it.

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It looks at 500 mb like a warm ( relative to season..) time of it Mon-Wed but nuanced details in the flow are teaming up to crumble and compact it S such that it won't get NE of NYC.  Hasn't verified yet of course but being April .. heh.   Just pick a 2-m temp product and loop it and you can see this walling off is persistent right through the period.  

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Obviously ...being 70 at all isn't terrible, no .. .but we're not part of the cool kids. Lol. Plus, some models like the GFS have a day in the 40s into NE zones while it's over 70 at EWR. 

The basal pattern is coherently different in the models beyond that though.  We're not likely to see these deep radiator nights in that look.  Cool will come from back packing E Canada/Maritime air, with lows actually modestly above normal after afternoons around 55 ...should BD air mass violation occur.  But when the sun shines and the wind were ever to turn around ... you're 70 pretty fast.   The 850 mb general thermal layout has seen the last of sub 0C S of border latitudes ( in general) without any means to really bring that back, both in what's left of telecon statistics ( fading for the season ) and in the ensemble mean spatial synoptics. 

It should be seasonal to modestly AN for 10 days beginning tomorrow.  Which frankly is a relative win for those of us that truly hate and despise 29 F mornings after probationary afternoon "warmth"'s  phony sense of liberation from winter.

On a personal note... on  Nov 3 I'm gung ho for any symbolic gesture the weather can muster to signify the impending season.  Diametrically opposed to that now.   But no one ask. 

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3rd day in a row dropped into the 20s...seems like that's hard to do this time of year. Ready for some real warmth but may have to wait until the solstice. Maybe if we can get into +NAO springs for a while we'll have a better chance of returning to "normal" winters.

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Key Points...

* Warm on Mon with 70s/near 80...but much cooler immediate coast
* Cooler Tue & especially Wed with 50s & 60s...coolest coast
* Milder again by Thu & Fri with 70s away from the coast
* Greatest risk for a period showers later Tue/Wed.

I'll take it!

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A great Saturday.

An earned lap up Mansfield, with phenomenal corn snow (granular kernels of melting surface snow on top of a frozen base) thanks to 4-5 nights of freezing temps.  The warm days are softening the top inch of the snowpack into the smoothest ski surface you can get in the spring.

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After skiing, we hiked into the Notch on RT 108.  It’ll still be a bit before the road opens.  Found some evidence of wet avalanches and ice fall reaching the road elevations. Such a cool topography.

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