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April 2024 Disco- SNE’s favorite month


HoarfrostHubb
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On 4/25/2024 at 2:04 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

2nd week in May looks troughy/blocky on some OP runs. let's hope they're on crack

So far no Ron Washington sighting. I guess there's still time for that projected pattern to become less pukey as we get closer - let's hope

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1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Its been hinted at the last several days, but many ignored. Looks troughy and relatively cool. The OPs have been showing it too

Ignored? Must be folks with an agenda. Do their initials begin with AHATT ?

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Just now, kdxken said:

Ignored? Must be folks with an agenda. Do their initials begin with AHATT ?

Yeah..I wish they were right tbh, but we need to cut through the bs. I'm sure there will be a fair share of nice days over the next 10, espcially inland, but it's always a bit harder to come by where I'm at. 

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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Looks fine, nice and cold . How's your earliest leaf out ever coming along?

sometimes you have to shoot for the moon, and maybe you'll land amongst the stars :wub:

In all seriousness, this quick cool-down aside it's been fairly mild.  But with average highs quickly coming up, another 50's-60's type week into early May is going solidly BN.  

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think it looks that terrible. I mean would we be seeing 80's and some early 90's? No climo is quickly becoming our friend so even if its a little troughy aloft, as long as the sfc isn't crap we will be fine. 

I also don't expect today's runs to verify verbatim. Just something to keep an eye on if some were expecting straight 60's and 70's from here on out. I think it was Jerry who said, we typically need to wait until Memorial Day or even June (Father's day?) to be in the clear in New England. Of course, helps being further west in CT. 

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Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

I also don't expect today's runs to verify verbatim. Just something to keep an eye on if some were expecting straight 60's and 70's from here on out. I think it was Jerry who said, we typically need to wait until Memorial Day or even June to be in the clear in New England. Of course, helps being further west in CT. 

Yup...sucks how this can often be the case. Maybe we can flip the switch sometime during the second half of May. 

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1 hour ago, ma blizzard said:

extended GFS OP is hideous .. May 05 Jr? 

Hypothesis of mine: the GFS has poor physics in it's make up during transitioning from winter into summer solar incidences. 

It seems to be doing this on this run. It seems unlikely those thicknesses will drape like that indefinitely like this run does that. The sun will obliterate that lower tropospheric thermal structure pretty fast there.  

The way it to make it cool and stay cool in May is to drive the east wind.  That's more of a COL medium as the GFS has that layout.

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think it looks that terrible. I mean would we be seeing 80's and some early 90's? No climo is quickly becoming our friend so even if its a little troughy aloft, as long as the sfc isn't crap we will be fine. 

Yeah of course the details will be worked out, and maybe we'll see some nice days. But this look is fairly static D8-14, not particularly exciting.

eps_z500a_namer_61 (1).png

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26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

sometimes you have to shoot for the moon, and maybe you'll land amongst the stars :wub:

In all seriousness, this quick cool-down aside it's been fairly mild.  But with average highs quickly coming up, another 50's-60's type week into early May is going solidly BN.  

 

Screenshot_20240426_070503_Chrome.jpg

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