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April 2024 Disco- SNE’s favorite month


HoarfrostHubb
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20 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The only leaf blow out that matters these next few weeks are the ones from Toronto getting blown out of the playoffs.

It'll go 7 games because of the two 0Ts the B's lost to make that happen ;)    ...after giving up the tying goal with 30 sec left in regulation, too -

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Knew this was going to happen when looking at those charts a couple of days ago.   Three days of sun just has to mean three days of fecal skies and cold air. 

There's a convergence axis in the larger circulation medium, the axis of which is stalled right over New England. You gotta loop your hi res larger scale imagery to get a feel for how this ain't goin' nowhere quickly

image.png.a7b46d86193327bd1d92bd63f897545b.png

It's not well enough that we get to just have a fair time of it - there's apparently a butt -bang budget that afflicts this region.  Any sunny day in April is not allowed to just be a sunny day ... there has to be this misery 100% tax in the other direction.  Lol.  

Remarkable how accurately and precisely the models all were in depicting this circumstance above from week out in time - go wonder!

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is this big Arctic cold, asking for a friend

sfctapp-imp.us_ne.png

I hope not....but it has been happening every year recently. From extreme warm to cold in Spring, extreme enough to wipe out the fruit trees....unreal

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Spring won't be complete until we've significantly muted the orchard crop for a 3rd straight year ...

 

beat me to it....peaches are a week from dropping their flowers, apples are probably about a week from flowering

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We'll see what happens with that. I'd hold a bit of skepticism right now. It's not a typical frontal system dropping south and east across the northern Plains or upper-Midwest. 

But this is where the feature in question is currently located. 

image.png.6045d40fb4fa33a1ff5b868ddceda2c1.png

 

Becomes pretty vigorous and then a piece breaks off and is ejected across our northern areas.

image.png.2b11d22b829aebd59495640e0a062500.png

If this doesn't work out it will be much warmer than advertised.

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29 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is this big Arctic cold, asking for a friend

 

Has to be close to record territory for late April verbatim .. -12 to -16 at 850 is absurd so late. 

I'm sure it modifies but still that was an impressive run. 

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22 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

beat me to it....peaches are a week from dropping their flowers, apples are probably about a week from flowering

It's a race...

Folks are unaware/don't care/... tired of looking and don't wanna consider,  pick a negligence, but the -EPO taking place this week was a strong telecon signal dating back some 10 days.  

image.png.f774479aeea5573bf130bff28d7c8f12.png

We aren't likely getting out of that without some sort of cold profiled synoptic torment - how much so/amplitude TBD.  Could mean anything from a mere 3 or 4 days of glancing BL air with frosty mornings, to setting the table for a snow event event whether the dailies of the runs even show that at this time. 

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actually ... 3 or 4 days may be spinning that, too.   The ensembles, all three sources, really don't lift that formulating cold pattern out of the eastern continent until after D10! 

We'll just have to hope the models are - as usual - shorting the solar/seasonal forcing, whereby they end up over amplified out in time.  There is some possibility this corrects toward something less extreme.

 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually ... 3 or 4 days may be spinning that, too.   The ensembles, all three sources, really don't lift that formulating cold pattern out of the eastern continent until after D10! 

We'll just have to hope the models are - as usual - shorting the solar/seasonal forcing, whereby they end up over amplified out in time.  There is some possibility this corrects toward something less extreme.

 

EPS from 18z Wed until Saturday morning is BN. Then we warm after. 

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