Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

April 2024 Disco- SNE’s favorite month


HoarfrostHubb
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully a wet, wild summer.  Grand-finale ending with a few bomb EC canes that power through FL/MA/?NE.

It’s going to be a boring summer with bursts of AN heat and humidity.  Hopefully less rain than last summer.

Personally, I’m wishing for warm and BN dry.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be a boring summer with bursts of AN heat and humidity.  Hopefully less rain than last summer.

Personally, I’m wishing for warm and BN dry.

Warm to hot with average precip would be great IMBY.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Easter Sunday was the 18th and remember being at my grandmother's house in Boston and the heat was intolerable inside. I remember talking about how the heat would affect the marathoners the next day. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z Euro (operational) threw out the bathwater on the cold p.o.s. useless pattern.   heh

The GGEM also tossed.   These models are both parting company with the GFS, which is holding onto the idea of plunking a -2.5 SD micro nuke at 500 mb down over NE at D6/7...   It's doing it over a seasonally neutered baroclinic ambient lower troposphere, though ...so all we get from that is a paltry 1002 mb surface response and bunch of grapply/pea hail low top convection below the summit snows up N. 

The GFS has cold/amplitude bias beyond D 5..6..7 -ish.  All troughs, closed or open, are consummately deeper than every other guidance in and beyond that time range in every run of the GFS, always (:blink:)  .   There are certainly times when deeper verified(s) better, and the GFS looks pretty good.  But every time?   I doubt it.   It's one aspect about the GFS I noticed around 2013 or so and has persisted since.   It tends to accumulate colder heights over the polar side of the best perceived latitude of the main jet.   Such that by the time a D10 roles around - when it doesn't matter LOL - it looks like the PV/arctic domain is in a state of regressing global warming...  (sarcasm).   

It's actually relatively subtle, and not the same amount.  But some 6 to 10 dm deeper in the nadirs of 500 mb across the hemisphere, relative to all other guidance, is too commonly observed for comfort.  That subtle deeper depth concomitantly increases the ambient gradient, which leads to increased basal flow rate of the polar jet. 

I suspect this is why we get so many top heavy ridges in spring in the GFS, where it looks at 500 mb like a big warm up is coming, but the GFS ends up with a 1045 mb high over western Ontario, directing an E wind everywhere. The faster consequential flow velocity meant that confluence ended up too strong --> bigger high.  Warmth excludes from the surface. The GFS has trouble getting SW lower troposphere flows under raising 500 mb to concurrently happen out in time.  The model is uniquely adept at hiding warm up potentials, right at time of year when that it preferential to do so - nice!

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully a wet, wild summer.  Grand-finale ending with a few bomb EC canes that power through FL/MA/?NE.

 

8 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s going to be a boring summer with bursts of AN heat and humidity.  Hopefully less rain than last summer.

Personally, I’m wishing for warm and BN dry.

Indications continue to suggest hyperactive tropics are favored. 

I think we’re pretty hot here this summer but hopefully we do get some long dry stretches so it’s enjoyable. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Angus said:

Easter Sunday was the 18th and remember being at my grandmother's house in Boston and the heat was intolerable inside. I remember talking about how the heat would affect the marathoners the next day. 

We were driving our 1971 Beetle from NNJ to northern Maine that day, stopping at my BIL's apartment in Boston for dinner (meat and potatoes - a salad would've been nice.)  and that little air-cooled engine was so hot that when we stopped, we could hear the pings as it tried to cool.  Outside the apartment a rat ran across in front of us and tried to go into a hole by the steps but was too fat and had to back out and go elsewhere.  (We were not impressed.)  When we arrived home in Fort Kent, it was 40° and cloudy.  After the sweaty marathon 16-hour trip, we loved it.
I'll be at Pittston Farm north of Moosehead next Thurs-Sat, in time for the cool down.  May see some flurries?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

It was 98⁰ April 19th 1976. Average temp for the week was 72⁰ now that was a torch. Spent the week of Freshman year URI in Misquamicut. Made a major mistake, worst Ice Cream headache ever diving in the 42⁰ Atlantic 

I remember Easter that year as being hot up here, like 90°.  I was 8 years old.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last flakes of the season?

 

However, as things are

winding down much colder air filters in late Wed into early Thu.

Would not be surprised if there are some snowflakes mixing in. At

this point total precip appearing to be generally between 0.1 and

0.5 inches. We`ve got mod to high (30-80+ percent) probs of totals

AOA 0.1 inches and low probs (10-30 percent) of 0.5 inches. For now

have just stuck with WPC.

 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s a stormy HHH cane look . Trough in center of country , WAR pumping heights and dews and heat 

Will you install or just sit sticking to an armchair muttering "this is more like it"?

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Confused 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A chilly April is now +2 to +3 in sne now 

Overall, April is more typically "chilly" for most of northeast NE, while SW areas can and will sometimes be markedly warmer. we've seen some sneaky backdoor situations pop into guidance, E /NE zones are never out of the woods""  jmo  But yeah west CT/NY/NJ, you all good.  

It's seasonably cool weather in April, nbd

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No surprise that forecasted by some folks record cold and freeze shot next week greatly modified today . Will end up a day of normal 

Some SN mix in the forecast for NW Maine, Wednesday night and Thursday.  No mention of accumulation and it's 5-6 days out.  However, a few late April flakes there isn't really news. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...