April 2024 Disco- SNE’s favorite month

[Damage In Tolland]

Mainly dry , Stein week. Maybe a few showers late week / weekend 

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Mainly dry , Stein week. Maybe a few showers late week / weekend 

COC although Wed is down the shitter 

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Should be near 70 today.

MAV is 73 at BDL and 70 at ASH

Mid April sun, forcing an air mass such as this, should bust machine numbers somewhat on the cool side.  That's typical of spring transition season - MOS/machine products tend to cap the T  ~ 1 to 3 F lower than actual.  

I've always wondered why that is.  It seems it's always been that way.

Anyway, light d-slope under 850s around +5C and ceiling coverage going to nil is a bud buster on April 15

 

[Typhoon Tip]

We green up this week... Some of that is already obvious, with shrubbery leaf out and flowers.  Lawn/fields are green.  But by this time next week I would expect larger stemmed species to at least be sitting on the edge of their bed. The Norway buds will be swollen if not cracked.  Red maple were hinting their spring hues last week but have since fully flushed.

Closing the book on the mud season chapter.

Big motivator in green up is that first week's worth of days keeping the night above trigger temperatures.  Can't be car top frosting every morning, or the sun powered afternoon nape days are fake and the foliage knows it. It will slow things down.

[Typhoon Tip]

The global models seem to be caving to seasonal forcing. The earlier synoptic complexion from a few days ago drove the 18th - 24th into orchard failure cold wave but so much of that has eased since then that what's implicated now may only be marginally damaging if at all, spanning fewer days as well.  I still expect some cool anomalies to pervade S-SE Canada, draped perpaps as far down as IND-DAY-PHL type latitude ( more N of course...) but the scale and degree of the -EPO driven interlude cutting into spring vibe as though back to early March is all but gone at this point. 

Look at the 00z operational Euro's 850 mb layout at 12z on the 22nd, and compare it to 12 hours later

- sun is embarrassing that air mass with that modulation at 850, a classic seasonal forcing ending winter whether winter wants to end or not.   The original outlook from a few days back was not doing this, either. It's interesting that the models suddenly do so now.    

 

 

[CoastalWx]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

MAV is 73 at BDL and 70 at ASH

Mid April sun, forcing an air mass such as this, should bust machine numbers somewhat on the cool side.  That's typical of spring transition season - MOS/machine products tend to cap the T  ~ 1 to 3 F lower than actual.  

I've always wondered why that is.  It seems it's always been that way.

Anyway, light d-slope under 850s around +5C and ceiling coverage going to nil is a bud buster on April 15

 

Yep just looked. 75 for sure attainable 

[Damage In Tolland]

Pollen season has begun. All over the vehicles with the showers yesterday . Yellow spots and pollen everywhere 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Pollen season has begun. All over the vehicles with the showers yesterday . Yellow spots and pollen everywhere 

Pine is yellow.  That yellow resin on exposed surfaces in mid spring is typically pine.  Y'allz living up in dem dar wooded hills with dem other bango twangers, you probably already know that but just sayn'

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Pine is yellow.  That yellow resin on exposed surfaces in mid spring is typically pine.  Y'allz living up in dem dar wooded hills of with the other bango twangers, you probably already know that but just sayn'

This is from the grass and maples and underbrush that has already leafed out . Some of the flowering annuals like forsythia and azaleas. It will get thicker and heavier each day. I know what you’re talking about with the white pine. This big yellow bombs of pollen you see blowing off. 

[Typhoon Tip]

In fact, any day this week that ends up more sun than clouds ...with winds light while the deep, life-heat suckin Labrador death air doesn't invade inland, probably goes a 1-3 ticks above machine numbers. 

Also, that cold raw rain with east drill wind scenario on Thursday has been attenuating.  The GGEM fails its arrival altogether at this point.  Attenuating systems happens in the guidance anyway ( for unrelated whatever reason - ) but combining that tendency with the sun homogenizing the ambient hemisphere ... those larger scaled wave events are all suspect.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is from the grass and maples and underbrush that has already leafed out . Some of the flowering annuals like forsythia and azaleas. It will get thicker and heavier each day. I know what you’re talking about with the white pine. This big yellow bombs of pollen you see blowing off. 

Are your lilacs leafing out?   I've had the unfortunate reality of having lived at this address now 7 or 8 years longer than I had originally envisioned of my future life ... and over the course of the extended stay I have observed lilac bloom behavior as getting early and earlier every year.  Right now, the leafs are young but unfurling, and there are adolescence bouquets emerging too. This may be the earliest yet

What can I say ...I'm a nerd.  For some reason I notice things like that and they stick to my memory like Rain Man

[tamarack]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

The wettest last 2 years around NE in history. Hopefully Stein drops his sac right across Scooters face like a Roman helmet all summer. We need it 

SNE?  Wettest 2-year (calendar) period here was 122.15" in 2008-09.  The 2 years ending 3/31/24 is just over 114", more than 15" AN but still in 2nd place.  Without parsing all the data, I suspect NNE, especially Maine, would have similar peaks.

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Are your lilacs leafing out?   I've had the unfortunate reality of having lived at this address now 7 or 8 years longer than I had originally envisioned of my future life ... and over the course of the extended stay I have observed lilac bloom behavior as getting early and earlier every year.  Right now, the leafs are young but unfurling, and there are adolescence bouquets emerging too. This may be the earliest yet

What can I say ...I'm a nerd.  For some reason I notice things like that and they stick to my memory like Rain Man

There’s some mini leaves on the lilacs. Not fully out yet though. 

[tamarack]

20 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Just realizing we had a pretty big flood event the other night here.  Walking the dog from home I started noticing logs and trees out in the soccer fields.  The river here showing mud deposits like 4-8 feet above where the river is today.

We only got like an inch of rain but the river height looked like 4-6” of rain in major summer flows.  Shows how much the mountain snowpack can add to it.

The Dog Path goes through here but it’s now gone as like 40 feet of land disappeared from this field overnight two nights ago.

Sneaky flood - only 1.16" RA plus mountain snowmelt.  The Sandy River peaked at 20.9k cfs, which would rank 22nd of 96 water years but was a comparative nothingburger after the 42.7k last December.

[Typhoon Tip]

There could be early heat S of 45 N as far NE as Chicago later in the month after we get past/exhausted that -EPO cold load here in the foreground.   interesting.  

The telecon spread is beginning to enter the less statistically significant warm season ... but, the AO(epo/nao) appear to rapidly neutralize to N/S standard deviation really by the end of this week 1.   After that, the PNA is meandering meaninglessly above and/or below 0 SD itself which amounts to neutral. 

I see the zonal tendency to the field still hinted in the cinema out in time between the Date meridian and California over the Pacific...  I wouldn't be shocked if we see a low amplitude (spatial ) warm SW release in over the last 7 to 10 days of the month.  Zonal tendencies also tend to precede ridging and then sure enough, the long range does show a ridge between Hawaii and the WC ... concomitantly, heights fall over the Great Basin. 

[Torch Tiger]

63 in Brewster, MA.  Torch!!!!

[mreaves]

Overcast and 44.2°.  Yay

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Sneaky flood - only 1.16" RA plus mountain snowmelt.  The Sandy River peaked at 20.9k cfs, which would rank 22nd of 96 water years but was a comparative nothingburger after the 42.7k last December.

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. 

Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. 

It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence.  It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and thought, 'Well, what the hell else are we gonna to do with the land?'   Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs.

Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. 

Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2006. Mother's Day weekend, in short order a stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed.   Wow... arresting.  

The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below, that latter more typically dried out and exposed on a typical August afternoon.  It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point.  It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills.  

There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system.  The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam to such an astonishing altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top.   20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam.   After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed. 

[powderfreak]

7 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Overcast and 44.2°.  Yay

I still cannot believe we lucked out last Monday for the eclipse.  Feels like we’ve seen the sun for just a few hours since then.

Low clouds, cool, drizzle and showers.  Ceiling is like 1500-2000ft.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. 

Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. 

It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence.  It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and though, 'well what the hell else are we going to do with the land?'   Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs.

Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. 

Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2005. Mother's Day stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed.   Wow... arresting.  

The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below.  It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point.  It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills.  

There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of the that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system.  The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam and such an altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top.   20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam.   After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed. 

That was 2006. Epic floods.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. 

Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. 

It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence.  It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and thought, 'Well, what the hell else are we gonna to do with the land?'   Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs.

Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. 

Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2005. Mother's Day weekend, in short order a stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed.   Wow... arresting.  

The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below, that latter more typically dried out and exposed on a typical August afternoon.  It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point.  It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills.  

There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system.  The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam to such an astonishing altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top.   20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam.   After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed. 

The great New England-wide flood was in March, 1936.  The December flood on the Sandy pushed 1936 (38.6k cfs) down to 3rd greatest.
Perhaps the most striking debris left by the December event were the hay wraps - 500 pounds of hay wrapped in white plastic - that came floating down the river.  Along US Rt 2 there are dozens caught in the brush, and some wraps were ripped apart in the flow, leaving plastic "banners" waving from the trees.
 

[WxWatcher007]

My kind of wx. Approaching 70 here. 

[weatherwiz]

What a day...top 5 material...hell maybe even top 3. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Gorgeous sunny and 74.

Last year it was 96 at BDL on April 14th, low 90s here. 93 I believe 

[Weathernoob335]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I still cannot believe we lucked out last Monday for the eclipse.  Feels like we’ve seen the sun for just a few hours since then.

Low clouds, cool, drizzle and showers.  Ceiling is like 1500-2000ft.

You aint kidding 

[Damage In Tolland]

We tan 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Floods are interesting to observe first hand. 

Objects et al sticking out of water like they have no business being where they are. 

It's not unusual as your driving by, you look over your shoulder to see a playground swing set and its attached slide jutting out mid way up. A repurposed oil-drum painted green being used as a garbage can nearby. What is it about playgrounds and ball parks - they always seem to be laid out right next to some innocuous slow moving stream on the other side of a brambled row of shrubbery, just beyond the outfield's chain-link fence.  It's like the settlers might have surveyed the land back whence and realized a flood control issue and thought, 'Well, what the hell else are we gonna to do with the land?'   Typical white man ... instead of just leaving it be, they create a rec center out of the natural setting - 'cept... said Nature didn't get that memo during wet springs.

Scale that up and obviously we're talking about a whole different dimension of gawk affect. 

Like... the Merrimack River in May, 2006. Mother's Day weekend, in short order a stalled cut-off low pumped some 3 or 4 month's worth of rain into the head region up in the Whites after a respectably hefty snow year was still trying to unburden itself down the water shed.   Wow... arresting.  

The overflow at the Tyngsborough dam just up the way from UML has about a 20 ft draft over the crest to the crag rock below, that latter more typically dried out and exposed on a typical August afternoon.  It also demarcates the beginning of the aqueduct that runs immediately parallel to the original river basin from that point about a mile to a main gate that rejoins the river just east of the University Ave bridge - it's nearly 50 feet deep at that point.  It was originally used to power the Mill industry during the latter gilded era and early industrialization's invasion of the Merrimack Valley known as Lowell's Boote Cotton Mills.  

There was flood in ( I think 1937 ) ... The 2005 event may have come close to 90th percentile of that. I'm not sure... but both overwhelmed that control system.  The water in 2005 flowed over top the dam to such an astonishing altitude that it became nearly laminar over the top.   20 foot draft below that crest and the water above and below the dam became nearly not above nor below the dam.   After having been on or around the campus for 4 or 5 years through the late 1990s ... to then go back and see that sight was ... you just stood there wide eyed. 

I saw a body swirling around behind the hydro dam back in the early 1990s.  Maybe late 1980s. I forget. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I saw a body swirling around behind the hydro dam back in the early 1990s.  Maybe late 1980s. I forget. 

That's a local yokel favorite "hang out" for suicide ..there, and testing gravity through the 70 foot of draft under the university ave bridge.  The bladed rocks at the bottom make "absolution" a certainty.

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tan 

Weenie

[weatherwiz]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We tan 

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