LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, JetsPens87 said: A stronger WAR in recent history hasn't helped. Bluewave is likely right about it being fueled by ever warmer SSTs It seems like a semi permanent feature now. The funny thing is, at the coast it's actually giving us a stronger southerly flow in the summer, so less 90 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, MJO812 said: The CMC kept showing the primary further south than the other models which showed a favorable transfer and a solution for our area while the other models were showing the opposite. I thought we had a small chance with the strong blocking but nothing has been working out for us. This is a NNE snowstorm The stronger blocking is only good when it doesn't link up with the WAR which has been forcing these systems further NW. This one is allowed to escape up the Wrn edge of the block all the way to Lale Huron before transferring. That's never going to work out for us down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: A stronger WAR in recent history hasn't helped. Bluewave is likely right about it being fueled by ever warmer SSTs Bingo The recent uptick in the water temps us making the SE ridge stronger. Usually with a strong block the primary will not go this far north and transfer further south . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: It seems like a semi permanent feature now. The funny thing is, at the coast it's actually giving us a stronger southerly flow in the summer, so less 90 degree days. Yes but much more humid days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, JetsPens87 said: The stronger blocking is only good when it doesn't link up with the WAR which has been forcing these systems further NW. This one is allowed to escape up the Wrn edge of the block all the way to Lale Huron before transferring. That's never going to work out for us down here. In the past 2 winters we have been screwed even with a negative nao because it has linked up with the WAR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Walt Dragg also uses the CMC for his forecasting. It's not the worst model but I don't see it as a leading tool. These days the only option is a blend of everything and especially favoring ensembles. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, JetsPens87 said: It's not the worst model but I don't see it as a leading tool. These days the only option is a blend of everything and especially favoring ensembles. Good way to go Every model has its days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Yes but much more humid days. yes-- so warmer nights and also more bugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: In the past 2 winters we have been screwed even with a negative nao because it has linked up with the WAR. this is the south based block Chris has been talking about 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Good way to go Every model has its days and also its patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: this is the south based block Chris has been talking about Chris has received alot of weenies this past winter but he did a great job when everyone including myself was hard on him for being a warnista. Same can be said for Allsnow. I think frustrations are setting in for many snow enthusiasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Tomorrow's rain is trending south-most likely due to the strong block? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Chris has received alot of weenies this past winter but he did a great job when everyone including myself was hard on him for being a warnista. Same can be said for Allsnow. I think frustrations are setting in for many snow enthusiasts. The warning signs were there early this year 1. December warmth was much more widespread that many predicted 2. The pattern change delay into mid Jan. And even at that, you could see modeling returning the warmth very quickly-so it was only 8-9 days 3. The Feb pattern change was more of the same-a couple days of cold then back to the torch. It was really over before it began this year and we were lucky to get the snow we got given a +5 Dec, +3 Jan +2 Feb and +5 March 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Chris has received alot of weenies this past winter but he did a great job when everyone including myself was hard on him for being a warnista. Same can be said for Allsnow. I think frustrations are setting in for many snow enthusiasts. and of course snowman19. He was actually more gungho about February and he ended up being right about the one decent snowfall we did get, which was in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: The warning signs were there early this year 1. December warmth was much more widespread that many predicted 2. The pattern change delay into mid Jan. And even at that, you could see modeling returning the warmth very quickly-so it was only 8-9 days 3. The Feb pattern change was more of the same-a couple days of cold then back to the torch. It was really over before it began this year and we were lucky to get the snow we got given a +5 Dec, +3 Jan +2 Feb and +5 March Many forecasts were for a warm and snowless winter but there were hope from the weeklies which never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and of course snowman19. He was actually more gungho about February and he ended up being right about the one decent snowfall we did get, which was in February. But snowman19 also forecasts no snow so is that a compliment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Tomorrow's rain is trending south-most likely due to the strong block? Yeah looks like a quarter inch or less. Maybe even under a tenth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, MJO812 said: But snowman19 also forecasts no snow so is that a compliment? But he's been right about that so I guess it is lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now? What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms? I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them. There is always a screw zone with Miller B's although the NYC metro usually does well but not in all cases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: But snowman19 also forecasts no snow in the middle of a blizzard. See underlined for correction. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: There is always a screw zone with Miller B's although the NYC metro usually does well but not in all cases. They're pretty good for Suffolk County and the north shore sometimes back to the city. The screw zone is usually us on the south shore, especially the western part back to central NJ. I think your climate is very similar to my climate, in that I see the same storms screw north central NJ that hurt me here in SW Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: They're pretty good for Suffolk County and the north shore sometimes back to the city. The screw zone is usually us on the south shore, especially the western part back to central NJ. I think your climate is very similar to my climate, in that I see the same storms screw north central NJ that hurt me here in SW Nassau County. In my experience the screw zone is usually south of Monmouth/Mercer Counties in NJ and especially Philly south but like I said not in all cases as there have been a more then one occasion where the NYC metro got "screwed" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But he's been right about that so I guess it is lol Sometimes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Many forecasts were for a warm and snowless winter but there were hope from the weeklies which never materialized. Weenies have been garbage for the last 4 yrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: In my experience the screw zone is usually south of Monmouth/Mercer Counties in NJ and especially Philly south but like I said not in all cases as there have been a more then one occasion where the NYC metro got "screwed" I recall December 2005 as one of the more infamous examples of this.... zero snow here and the LGA got 3" and NYC got 6" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Weenies have been garbage for the last 4 yrs Weenies or weeklies lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Weenies or weeklies lol I think both apply. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, Rtd208 said: I think both apply. Great minds-- I was thinking the same thing lol. I just didn't know if he did it on purpose or if it was some sort of Freudian slip lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now? What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms? I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them. The Southeast ridge has become a big player since the 15-16 super El Niño. New run Old run 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Southeast ridge has become a big player since the 15-16 super El Niño. New run Old run I hesitate to ask this-- but does this change the forecast for eclipse time on Monday? There's been so many changes in the last few days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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