snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January Yep. Best of luck getting a snowstorm in the metro area with a very strong primary low cutting that far north before coastal redevelopment takes over. This is an all rain event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Basically a cutter with a late developing coastal-would have been rain even in January Things have really trended away from an earlier transfer and stronger costal storm. This is now just a week of miserable weather 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 20 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Things have really trended away from an earlier transfer and stronger costal storm. This is now just a week of miserable weather Soil moisture is over 120% of normal right now and all the rivers, lakes, streams and reservoirs are at capacity. The last thing we need is more rain but here it comes again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Euro still basically a non event tomorrow with the bulk coming Wednesday. Nam is wet all 3 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Interesting opinion. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Interesting opinion. Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context. I am well aware that dude. I don't need to be told that. But thank you. 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Keep in mind you're reading the New England forum and he's talking about positioning. Not emphatically endorsing the CMC Ptypes for NY Metro. Context. I would argue that even for interior central New England, this is not a snowstorm, not with a juiced up primary low cutting that far north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am well aware that dude. I don't need to be told that. But thank you. Whatever dude 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I would argue that even for interior central New England, this is not a snowstorm, not with a juiced up primary low cutting that far north If you're not under a potential CCB significant accumulations are going to be tough if not for higher elevations in NNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I suggested this analog a few days ago, this was another north of NYC snow event in a season when we saw very little snow. I remember this storm well. We got 8-9 inches. Incredibly cold and windy day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: I remember this storm well. We got 8-9 inches. Incredibly cold and windy day. Yup. I remember lots of sleet at my location in Monmouth county before a flip to snow. The days leading up to that were in the 60’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I suggested this analog a few days ago, this was another north of NYC snow event in a season when we saw very little snow. That storm gave me more than triple what I'd gotten the entire winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Nam is nice for the interior but likely too cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nam is nice for the interior but likely too cold The NAM at 84 hours is like looking at the Famer’s Almanac for a forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Those clinging to the CMC... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Those clinging to the CMC... This was obvious 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 Just now, MJO812 said: This was obvious Yup. That's why I said toss it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was obvious No one here should have been tracking this storm for snow. It was always for heavy rain and strong winds. Not even sure how that will play out now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was obvious it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup..... 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup..... A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. Real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip also said he likes CMC in Neg NAO and AO episodes but in this instance an ensemble blend is best to use. CMC is erroneously seeing something (but trending away from) the earlier transfer idea. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 31 Author Share Posted March 31 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A storm with a primary that tracks to Buffalo or Lake Huron will never be good for anything here other than heavy rain and a dry slot. Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, these -NAO patterns have been changing in recent years. They have tended to link up with the Southeast ridge more. My guess is that it’s related to the record Atlantic SSTs and possibly other marine heatwaves across the planet. We have seen how models have been underestimating this factor longer range. So storm systems start out days 6-10 more suppressed and colder only to correct more north or northwest and warmer under 5 days. I know people follow the model headline scores for the Northern Hemisphere. But this issue near the East Coast isn’t something that shows up in these model forecast statistics. So we have to take this model bias into account when looking at longer range forecasts. I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now? What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms? I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: No one here should have been tracking this storm for snow. It was always for heavy rain and strong winds. Not even sure how that will play out now. The storm bombs out further north now on the models. Expect a dreary week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 3 hours ago, winterwarlock said: I remember this storm well. We got 8-9 inches. Incredibly cold and windy day. I think you guys southwest of us got more snow than we did. Farmartin's page indicates the same thing. 6-8 inches of snow for central NJ and 1-2 inches here. You also got 6-8 inches of snow in April 1996. We did okay on Long Island with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: I was just going to ask you this, why are these primary storms with lows going to Buffalo becoming more common now? What happened to our Miller A's the real coastal snowstorms? I hate Miller B's..... even in winter we usually get the backside from them. A stronger WAR in recent history hasn't helped. Bluewave is likely right about it being fueled by ever warmer SSTs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: it wasn't obvious but shows it has been showing this for several days now.........and a real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip likes how the model is handling this setup..... The CMC kept showing the primary further south than the other models which showed a favorable transfer and a solution for our area while the other models were showing the opposite. I thought we had a small chance with the strong blocking but nothing has been working out for us. This is a NNE snowstorm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 2 hours ago, gravitylover said: That storm gave me more than triple what I'd gotten the entire winter. Yea, winter 1996-97 was a pretty bad winter for us. The only two storms I remember were both for areas north of here-- December 1996 and April 1997. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 31 Share Posted March 31 21 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Real Meteorologist Typhoon Tip also said he likes CMC in Neg NAO and AO episodes but in this instance an ensemble blend is best to use. CMC is erroneously seeing something (but trending away from) the earlier transfer idea. Walt Dragg also uses the CMC for his forecasting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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