April 2024

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats right we had a small accumulation of snow on 4/16/14!

I'm shocked it wasn't either 4/19 or 4/20 in 1983.... didn't JFK have about 2 inches of snow on that very late date? Tony, can you please check 4/19-4/20 in 1983 and see what the temperature was when it was snowing on those days?  Thanks!

 

JFK had 1.5" on April 19, 1983. The low temperature was 35°.

[nycwinter]

another lovely day of wearing a hoodie and a winter coat...

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

JFK had 1.5" on April 19, 1983. The low temperature was 35°.

wow I wonder if that was the warmest low temperature at JFK at which 1" of snow has fallen?

 

[JetsPens87]

8 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

another lovely day of wearing a hoodie and a winter coat...

Wonder if you have Raynauds syndrome

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and also the clouds, which were pretty low here this morning.

Chris, what's the latest that we've seen 32 degrees at the park or city airports over the past 50 years or so? I'm curious about how we're seeing mid to upper 30s occurring later now than they used to, but our last freeze always seems to be in late March now.

 

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

 

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

 

[TheClimateChanger]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

 

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

 

Lows have warmed dramatically at New York. No doubt freezes used to be much more common in the past.

In the past, it was much colder. As low as 12 degrees in April 1923.

Many years had average minima less than the coldest minimum temperature readings in recent years.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

 

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

 

But why is last freeze for Central Park being listed as March 30th? When I was growing up it was listed as April 10th....

 

[JerseyWx]

4 hours ago, MANDA said:

Cold upstate NY this morning.  Looks like KSLK bottomed out at 13.

Wow that's crazy for late April in the teens.

[TheClimateChanger]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The main challenge for the area is that the last freeze date is similar to 1951-1980 but first 70s and 80s of spring are arriving much earlier. So this has lead to the damaging spring freezes across the northeast especially in the interior. The historic damaging freeze last May to our north matched the pattern of early season warmth causing blooms which were followed by a damaging hard freeze. We can understand that as the climate continues to warm spring will arrive earlier with the quicker blooms. But the last freeze date has not changed as much and needs some further investigation. My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking from the EPO to NAO regions recently is allowing the last freeze date to remain more constant relative to earlier eras.    
 

I will use Newark as an example of this pattern that shows up to varying degrees across the region.

 

Newark

2010-2023

Last 32°…. 04-04…last 30s…04-21

First 70°…..03-07…first 80°….03-31

1951-1980

Last 32°…..04-04…..last 30s…04-22

First 70°.….03-26….first 80°…..04-22

 

I think the increase in frosts/freeze is just one of perception. If you look at NWS Pittsburgh, for an example, you can see freeze warnings used to be very rare in the spring prior to 2012. And it wasn't because it was warmer at that time. To the contrary, it was because they were not issued until May 1 in the south and May 15 in the mountains and north, because that's when the growing season used to begin. Now the growing season begins in April (or even March, as in 2012) and voila! --- Suddenly there's numerous freeze warnings each and every spring.

It is true that 2020 had a lot of freeze warnings in May, but a good chunk of those were relegated to the mountains and north country and would not have been issued pre-2012.

If you look at the actual data, you will see in the 19th century and early 20th century, it was common for low temperatures for the ENTIRE month of April to average below freezing in many of these areas, which means the majority of nights dropped below freezing in those months. Now in the same areas, there's a big hullabaloo with the rogue night dropping to 30F in mid to late April.

[donsutherland1]

It will be another chilly night with the temperature falling into the lower 40s in New York City. Readings near or below freezing are possible well north and west of New York City tonight where some frost is likely tomorrow morning. After a cold start, the temperature will rise into the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region.

It will likely turn noticeably warmer on Sunday as April nears an end. Monday could be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -14.28 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.550 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

 

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I wonder if that was the warmest low temperature at JFK at which 1" of snow has fallen?

 

No. JFK's record is 1.9" on March 14, 1972 with a low temperature of 36°.

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Wow that's crazy for late April in the teens.

NYC never radiates well 

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I think the increase in frosts/freeze is just one of perception. If you look at NWS Pittsburgh, for an example, you can see freeze warnings used to be very rare in the spring prior to 2012. And it wasn't because it was warmer at that time. To the contrary, it was because they were not issued until May 1 in the south and May 15 in the mountains and north, because that's when the growing season used to begin. Now the growing season begins in April (or even March, as in 2012) and voila! --- Suddenly there's numerous freeze warnings each and every spring.

It is true that 2020 had a lot of freeze warnings in May, but a good chunk of those were relegated to the mountains and north country and would not have been issued pre-2012.

If you look at the actual data, you will see in the 19th century and early 20th century, it was common for low temperatures for the ENTIRE month of April to average below freezing in many of these areas, which means the majority of nights dropped below freezing in those months. Now in the same areas, there's a big hullabaloo with the rogue night dropping to 30F in mid to late April.

You are missing the point that I made. The first 70° and 80° degree days of the season are becoming earlier at a faster rate than the last freeze is becoming earlier. So this creates more damaging freeze potential in the spring due to the increasing overlap. This is why the most damaging interior Northeast freeze on record for the spring occurred in May 2023. This works for many stations across the Northeast where the spring bloom is becoming earlier faster than the last freeze is becoming earlier.  Some spots have a 3 week to one month faster start to spring while the last freeze is still within a week of where it was during the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Now if you go back to the late 1800s off course the last freeze was later. But that really isn’t relevant to the current day agricultural interests which have been sustaining spring freeze losses. We have also seen this is the Southeast with earlier starts to spring in February only to be subject to damaging freezes in March. 

This has been getting more attention from the literature in Europe recently but the same thing happened in the Northeast last May.

 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear.

The last freeze at Newark hasn’t changed since 1950 but the first 70° and 80° days of the season are arriving much earlier.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

NYC never radiates well 

They will once we get rid of this polluted concrete.  NYC has plans to make the city 30% green by 2030.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You are missing the point that I made. The first 70° and 80° degree days of the season are becoming earlier at a faster rate than the last freeze is becoming earlier. So this creates more damaging freeze potential in the spring due to the increasing overlap. This is why the most damaging interior Northeast freeze on record for the spring occurred in May 2023. This works for many stations across the Northeast where the spring bloom is becoming earlier faster than the last freeze is becoming earlier.  Some spots have a 3 week to one month faster start to spring while the last freeze is still within a week of where it was during the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Now if you go back to the late 1800s off course the last freeze was later. But that really isn’t relevant to the current day agricultural interests which have been sustaining spring freeze losses. We have also seen this is the Southeast with earlier starts to spring in February only to be subject to damaging freezes in March. 

This has been getting more attention from the literature in Europe recently but the same thing happened in the Northeast last May.

 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear.

The last freeze at Newark hasn’t changed since 1950 but the first 70° and 80° days of the season are arriving much earlier.

The important thing to remember about climate change, as you stated, is more extremes.  That means both extremes in temperature as well as precipitation.

The motto should be to expect the unexpected.

 

[MJO812]

43 here

[STORMANLI]

30° Frost

33° Sunday

32° Monday

31° Tuesday

Down The Ladder

[tim]

29.3 * here in eastport 

24.0 @ KOFX

OUCH!

[TJW014]

Starting off at 24. Bird bath is frozen. 

[gravitylover]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

You are missing the point that I made. The first 70° and 80° degree days of the season are becoming earlier at a faster rate than the last freeze is becoming earlier. So this creates more damaging freeze potential in the spring due to the increasing overlap. This is why the most damaging interior Northeast freeze on record for the spring occurred in May 2023. This works for many stations across the Northeast where the spring bloom is becoming earlier faster than the last freeze is becoming earlier.  Some spots have a 3 week to one month faster start to spring while the last freeze is still within a week of where it was during the 1951-1980 climate normals period. Now if you go back to the late 1800s off course the last freeze was later. But that really isn’t relevant to the current day agricultural interests which have been sustaining spring freeze losses. We have also seen this is the Southeast with earlier starts to spring in February only to be subject to damaging freezes in March. 

This has been getting more attention from the literature in Europe recently but the same thing happened in the Northeast last May.

 

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/human-caused-climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-early-growing-period-frost-in-france/

In early April 2021 several days of severe frost affected central Europe following an anomalously warm March. This led to very severe damages in grapevine and fruit trees, particularly in France, where young leaves had already unfolded in the warm early spring. Using published peer-reviewed methods we analysed how human-induced climate change affected the temperatures as extreme as observed in spring 2021 over central France, where many vineyards are located. We found that although climate change made the temperatures of the observed event less cold than they would have been without the burning of fossil fuels over the last centuries, the fact that climate change has also led to an earlier start of the growing season means that frost damage in young leaves has become more likely due to human-induced climate change.

 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear.

The last freeze at Newark hasn’t changed since 1950 but the first 70° and 80° days of the season are arriving much earlier.

As there is less and less cold air available to tap wouldn't these late season freezes be less dramatic? 

[uofmiami]

31 in Muttontown & 32 in Syosset this morning. 80 in GCM currently! 

[jm1220]

28 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

31 in Muttontown & 32 in Syosset this morning. 80 in GCM currently! 

Should’ve at least been a frost advisory for N Nassau. 

[bluewave]

Figures the first record low of the year down to 33° at Islip would wait until late April.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

Islip

Low 33

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

43 here

it got down into the upper 30s last night!

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Figures the first record low of the year down to 33° at Islip would wait until late April.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp

Islip

Low 33

Gabreski also had a record low, 24 I think?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, TJW014 said:

Starting off at 24. Bird bath is frozen. 

Same low as Westhampton and a record there

[rclab]

1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

As there is less and less cold air available to tap wouldn't these late season freezes be less dramatic? 

Good morning gravity. From what I’ve learned, just reading on the sub forums, the drops in temperature, as you get close to the warm season, have a lot to do with radiational cooling. My postage stamp surrounded by brick, concrete and asphalt rarely has such drops. Today my state of the, half century ago, art thermometer registered close to 50 in the shade at 8:15. Central park was 48 at 07:51. The cooler mornings may well be a blessing in the months to come. Stay well, as always ….

[psv88]

30 back home in commack. In Hershey now looking forward to the 80s forecasted for Sunday 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

As there is less and less cold air available to tap wouldn't these late season freezes be less dramatic? 

My guess is that the much stronger spring blocking at times in recent years has been compensating to some extent. The hard freeze last May over the interior occurred with one of the strongest -EPO +PNA blocks on record for that time of year. But the stronger spring blocking at times can’t affect the earlier arrival of spring. So we get these overlaps leading to damaging freezes in susceptible arras. 

 

[lee59]

Low 30s here, light frost.