snowman19 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 7 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: IMHO that kind of speculation is very premature. As mentioned it can be deceiving in both directions. Smart people were calling HTHH a 3-4 a day after it happened thinking the entire column was steam (it wasn’t, 1.9 cubic kilometers of ash in it which is already well into VEI 5 territory). And hidden underwater was another 6-8 cubic kilometers of ignimbrite (massive pyroclastic flows from caldera collapse). Just IMO and I’m not caught up on this one yet. To answer your question it would be rare but not even historically without precedent. Six years before Tambora’s VEI 7 in 1815, there was a mystery eruption from a not fully identified volcano that was at least a VEI 6 in 1809. A six and a seven that close together is pretty mind boggling. And remember a 6 could be 10 cubic kilometers like Pinatubo or 99 cubic kilometers, basically a near 7. At VEI 6 level is when the scale sort of breaks in terms of perception. Things just start getting really ridiculous massive. Reading on twitter now that the ash plume has reached over 70,000 ft. This is going to be an interesting one to follow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 48 and showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Cloudy and a high of 50 today, 56 in Philly and sunny and 80 in DC, heck of a back door! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: Cloudy and a high of 50 today, 56 in Philly and sunny and 80 in DC, heck of a back door! From magnificent to misery. Also I doubt it hits 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 Looks we have a shot at near the coldest 850mb temperatures on record near James Bay next week for late April. A -28C cold core at 850mb is pretty ridiculous this late in the season. Will be interesting to see how close this gets to the Northeast day 6-10. It’s possible that interior regions could see a hard freeze with 30s all the way to the coast. We probably won’t know for sure until we get under 120 hrs since pinning down exact polar vortex positions day 6-10 can be tricky. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 10 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: This rain event really fizzled Yup…what happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Drizzle fest here. 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 47 cloudy and misty NE wind. Raw day and cloudy cool 60 hours through Sat morning. This weekend looks to clear out and dry up but still be a bit below normal (60s). A bit of a drier pattern ensuing this week overall but still below normal the next 7 - 9 days. Next 70s/80s not till April 30 open next month as ridging builds east. Warmth to close the month but nothing sustained yet on any pf the longer range forecasting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Records: Highs: EWR: 93 (2002) NYC: 96 (1976) LGA: 91 (1976) JFK: 86 (2002) Lows: EWR: 34 (1943) NYC: 25 (1875) LGA: 35 (2014) JFK: 35 (2003) Historical: 1880 - More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65 persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum) 1906 - A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum) 1944 - California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel) 1957 - A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air, and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it moved westward. (The Weather Channel) 1970 - Rapid City, SD, received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th) (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thirty-one cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including International Falls MN with a reading of 88 degrees, and Bismarck ND with a high of 92 degrees. A sharp cold front produced high winds in the western U.S. Winds in Utah gusted to 99 mph at the Park City Angle Station, and capsized a boat on Utah Lake drowning four persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the southeastern U.S. A strong (F-2) tornado severely damaged seventeen mobile homes near Bainbridge GA injuring three persons. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. A thunderstorm in Pecos County of southwest Texas produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Imperial. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Heavy snow blanketed the west central valleys and southwest mountains of Colorado with up to 18 inches of snow. Nine cities from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region reported record low temperatures for the date, including Fort Wayne IND with a reading of 23 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks we have a shot at near the coldest 850mb temperatures on record near James Bay next week for late April. A -28C cold core at 850mb is pretty ridiculous this late in the season. Will be interesting to see how close this gets to the Northeast day 6-10. It’s possible that interior regions could see a hard freeze with 30s all the way to the coast. We probably won’t know for sure until we get under 120 hrs since pinning down exact polar vortex positions day 6-10 can be tricky. currently looks like the chill shives south 4/25 - 4/27 in /out with some ridging pushing heights up behind it 4/29. Perhaos -10 below normal to a +10 in 48 hours - way out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 43 minutes ago, SACRUS said: currently looks like the chill shives south 4/25 - 4/27 in /out with some ridging pushing heights up behind it 4/29. Perhaos -10 below normal to a +10 in 48 hours - way out there. Awful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 what a beautiful day for mid april one of my ten best days of the year 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 47 minutes ago, SACRUS said: currently looks like the chill shives south 4/25 - 4/27 in /out with some ridging pushing heights up behind it 4/29. Perhaos -10 below normal to a +10 in 48 hours - way out there. The forecast beyond day 10 will probably come down to how strong the 50/50 low remains. The OP Euro maintains a stronger 50/50 with continued backdoor potential. We would want something closer to EPS to have a shot at more than a day or two warm up before getting backdoored again. The original day 10+ EPS underestimated the backdoor influence this week. So would want to see improvement show up under 168 hrs to have confidence that this pattern was going to relax. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 24 minutes ago, psv88 said: Awful And right on cue. We get teased with the warmth and the back door/drizzle garbage surges right in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: The forecast beyond day 10 will probably come down to how strong the 50/50 low remains. The OP Euro maintains a stronger 50/50 with continued backdoor potential. We would want something closer to EPS to have a shot at more than a day or two warm up before getting backdoored again. The original day 10+ EPS underestimated the backdoor influence this week. So would want to see improvement show up under 168 hrs to have confidence that this pattern was going to relax. Get that ridge more east of Hawaii . This April similar to '19 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Just raw and miserable out here. Adventureland is open, I see people on rides, they’re nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 11 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Get that ridge more east of Hawaii . This April similar to '19 It’s really impressive how persistent the Canadian blocking has been since last spring. Figures it would mainly wait until the winter to link up the Southest ridge. The degree to which the blocking holds on will probably help to refine some of our summer weather details. While we usually have been very warm during El Niño to La Niña summer transitions, a continued wet pattern and more high pressure to the north could work to temper the heat potential somewhat. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: Yup…what happened? I was wondering the same thing. Only 0.01 here. So much for the rain event, but this is still miserable weather with temps barely hitting 50 today. Looking forward to breaking out of this on Saturday with temps well up into the 60s. Monday and Tuesday look nice too with temps well up into the 60s and possibly near 70. Too bad another significant cooldown will likely be coming mid to late next week though, as Bluewave has been pointing out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 46 here Loving it 2 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 28 minutes ago, SACRUS said: 1012 is seriously weak sauce. No wonder the rain didn’t materialize… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: And right on cue. We get teased with the warmth and the back door/drizzle garbage surges right in. Always happens. We just can't break this back and forth pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 4 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: Always happens. We just can't break this back and forth pattern. Pretty typical for April. We won't break out of this for at least a month 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty typical for April. We won't break out of this for at least a month At which point we go right to summer. Might actually be a decent enough stretch coming up starting on Sat for a few days before the next back door gunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Pretty typical for April. We won't break out of this for at least a month But I'm even talking about the pattern in general since last summer. We get a couple nice days, then pay for it with crap for several days. Barely used the pool last year because almost every weekend had storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 18 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: But I'm even talking about the pattern in general since last summer. We get a couple nice days, then pay for it with crap for several days. Barely used the pool last year because almost every weekend had storms. Last summer was horrid once past about June 20th-last May-June were dry then the spigots opened for 9 months plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 57 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: But I'm even talking about the pattern in general since last summer. We get a couple nice days, then pay for it with crap for several days. Barely used the pool last year because almost every weekend had storms. Well yeah its been a pretty unprecedented wet year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 i would be happy having a cool spring early summer well into june 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: 46 here Loving it Ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 6 hours ago, nycwinter said: what a beautiful day for mid april one of my ten best days of the year God I hope this summer roasts just so we can taunt you all season long 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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