uofmiami Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 12 minutes ago, psv88 said: May be a lot of people moving back north from Florida… They already are, there's been articles in the NYT & WSJ about it. Many are moving to GA & NC it seems. Some are moving back to the NYC area as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, Allsnow said: Happy the freak snow band in that one event got me to pretty much normal at 28.75" for the season and like 22 days of snowcover for the year. Snow normal, temps even close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 19 minutes ago, uofmiami said: They already are, there's been articles in the NYT & WSJ about it. Many are moving to GA & NC it seems. Some are moving back to the NYC area as well. It's still booming-my folks are in Naples in the winter and the construction there is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, psv88 said: Not sure why it matters that the warming may be largely from lows. Warmer is warmer. High lows means fewer mornings with frosts and freezes that kill bugs. One could argue that higher lows has more of an impact on that environment than higher highs Because "hot days" are defined by the number of times it hits 90 degrees. How hot a summer is, is tangibly defined that way. I'm done with the humidity driven overnight lows. Higher lows come from humidity, while actual heat determines how many times we hit 90 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It's still booming-my folks are in Naples in the winter and the construction there is crazy I don't doubt that one bit. The inflow of new residents is still outpacing those moving out, but some are moving out after having settled in FL for a year or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: @Bluewave Growing support for east-west tracks and not recurving hurricanes/tropical storms. Haven’t seen that in awhile This means a hotter summer too, and probably strong westerly flow at our latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 minute ago, uofmiami said: I don't doubt that one bit. The inflow of new residents is still outpacing those moving out, but some are moving out after having settled in FL for a year or so. Yeah I read that article too. Summers there would be brutal honestly. Even when I've been in mid April the sun beating down is tough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: An Insurance nightmare waiting to happen... Yup one more Andrew but shifted 25-40 miles north and it’s lights out for Florida’s economy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 9 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: Yup one more Andrew but shifted 25-40 miles north and it’s lights out for Florida’s economy. Andrew was small. The storms today are wider with more damage potential. Frankly, same threat in NYC. Florida is a little overheated right now and it cant continue like that. What was once cheap isnt as cheap anymore because of demand. Hence GA and the Carolinas. The SE will continue to grow at the expense of places like NY as they have the right combo of low taxes, low cost of living, newer housing stock, and better weather plus a ton of business opportunities. If you can afford to live in Westchester or on the north shore of Long Island and you work from home, you could have a nice suburban life here for an exorbitant cost. If you live in Queens like I used to, you are giving half your pay check to a landlord to live in an apartment that your grandparents grew up in and everything around you is old, broken, small and/ or dirty. Everything from food shopping to the Post Office to the gym is subpar to every other part of America. That is why SE wins and few if any move back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Periods of rain and some thunderstorms are likely tonight into tomorrow. Much of the region will pick up 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. The wind could gust past 40 mph tonight into tomorrow. In the wake of the storm, a dry weekend will follow. It will turn briefly cooler on Saturday, but warmer air will quickly return starting on Sunday. Temperatures could again reach the 70s early next week.Even warmer temperatures are possible. Given the near-term warmth and extended guidance, New York City's Central Park is all but certain to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -15.14 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.117 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.1° (2.5° above normal). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 53 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Andrew was small. The storms today are wider with more damage potential. Frankly, same threat in NYC. Florida is a little overheated right now and it cant continue like that. What was once cheap isnt as cheap anymore because of demand. Hence GA and the Carolinas. The SE will continue to grow at the expense of places like NY as they have the right combo of low taxes, low cost of living, newer housing stock, and better weather plus a ton of business opportunities. If you can afford to live in Westchester or on the north shore of Long Island and you work from home, you could have a nice suburban life here for an exorbitant cost. If you live in Queens like I used to, you are giving half your pay check to a landlord to live in an apartment that your grandparents grew up in and everything around you is old, broken, small and/ or dirty. Everything from food shopping to the Post Office to the gym is subpar to every other part of America. That is why SE wins and few if any move back A 1926-type hit on Miami would be far more damaging today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, psv88 said: Not sure why it matters that the warming may be largely from lows. Warmer is warmer. High lows means fewer mornings with frosts and freezes that kill bugs. One could argue that higher lows has more of an impact on that environment than higher highs I'm not arguing at all against the fact it's warming. Just stating that the lows have been contributing to our AN departures recently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Radar is back up. Very muggy out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 8 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: I'm not arguing at all against the fact it's warming. Just stating that the lows have been contributing to our AN departures recently. it's why our summers don't have the length of heatwaves they used to. Look at the length of heatwaves from the 50s to the 90s vs what passes for heatwave now-- the differences are eyeopening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, HailMan06 said: Yup one more Andrew but shifted 25-40 miles north and it’s lights out for Florida’s economy. I find it weird how it didn't affect Miami more than it did. It must have been really small (maybe 5 miles wide?) because Miami is very close to the southern tip of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah I read that article too. Summers there would be brutal honestly. Even when I've been in mid April the sun beating down is tough. People will likely be moving away from Miami because of sea level rise. They already get sunny day flooding. Projections are that a lot of that coastal population will be moving to Orlando and other points inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I find it weird how it didn't affect Miami more than it did. It must have been really small (maybe 5 miles wide?) because Miami is very close to the southern tip of Florida. Downtown Miami is night and day difference compared to now with the amount of high rises. Also, the wind radius was so tight on the storm as it came ashore that 10 miles made all the difference between 80 mph winds and those gusting to 200 mph. Once N of Coral Gables the impacts lessened, while it got worse heading S to Homestead, which looked like a nuke went off. I know at RSMAS on Virginia Key the storm surge was only 5 feet compared to 17 feet down by Homestead. https://hurricanes.earth.miami.edu/stormtide/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: People will likely be moving away from Miami because of sea level rise. They already get sunny day flooding. Projections are that a lot of that coastal population will be moving to Orlando and other points inland. King Tides, which I don't recall being a thing when I was down there for college from 95-00. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Yeah I read that article too. Summers there would be brutal honestly. Even when I've been in mid April the sun beating down is tough. I was just in the PBI area. Still a huge amount of new construction and influx of residents, however many are on their way back up here after Easter. The Space Coast/Tampa are the biggest areas for incoming residents. The area from PBI to Miami is unfortunately way overdue for a major hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 WV and SW PA getting crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Hopefully that ridge doesn't go away after the 20th. In my experience once we hit 85, we usually don't go back to a cool pattern anymore Depends how you define "cool" at that point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Picked up 0.23" of rain for the day yesterday 0.05" so far today. Storm total so far 0.28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Yay power is out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Thunder overnight here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12 Author Share Posted April 12 While it still looks like generally warmer weather next week than we have seen recently, it may not get quite as warm as models were indicating a few days ago. As we can often see this time of year, back doors have a way of popping up the closer in we get to a forecast period. New run stronger backdoor nearby Old run weaker backdoor 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Nice thunderstorm around 3:30 AM. Serious wind gusts too. Island Beach State Park peak gust of 64 MPH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 Must have been very windy overnight. Items blown all around the yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 12 Author Share Posted April 12 16 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Because "hot days" are defined by the number of times it hits 90 degrees. How hot a summer is, is tangibly defined that way. I'm done with the humidity driven overnight lows. Higher lows come from humidity, while actual heat determines how many times we hit 90 degrees. 90° days have been on the increase with numerous top 10 years since 2010. But the higher dewpoints are allowing the 70° minimums to increase at a faster rate. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 .62 overnight. Radar says we make it to a inch this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 12 Share Posted April 12 65 and rain, heavier rain moving on from the SW, 0.75 in the bucket so far. Rain should end in the afternoon. Cooler dryer Sat , windy but still some lingering clouds. Warmer Sun - Tue before clouds and cooler NE flow. April 20th - April 24th looks cooler/unsettled from this far out before heights rise and warmer returns beyond there and to close the month on a warmer note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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