bluewave Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 24 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Good agreement with GEFS and EPS for that period before ridge goes away after the 20th. Hope the signal stays as we get closer to the period. Yeah, it’s a nice improvement on next weeks forecast from a week ago. New run Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it’s a nice improvement on next weeks forecast from a week ago. New run Old run Do you think we keep the very unusual +IOD/La Niña through the fall or do you think it goes at least neutral? Although it’s possible, my guess is that we go at least neutral IOD by fall and possibly -IOD during the fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10 Author Share Posted April 10 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Do you think we keep the very unusual +IOD/La Niña through the fall or do you think it goes at least neutral? Although it’s possible, my guess is that we go at least neutral IOD by fall and possibly -IOD during the fall Good question since we usually don’t see record SSTs in the NW Indian Ocean and a +IOD during developing La Ninas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Good question since we usually don’t see record SSTs in the NW Indian Ocean and a +IOD during developing La Ninas. Yea and I suspect the developing Nina only serves to reinforce the -PDO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yea and I suspect the developing Nina only serves to reinforce the -PDO Probably another winter of MJO 4-5-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Probably another winter of MJO 4-5-6 Yup. Mild and snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 I suspect areas of metro see 80’s next week. Very likely more than once too 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I suspect areas of metro see 80’s next week. Very likely more than once too Hopefully not Yesterday was disgusting 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 Rain will arrive toward morning. Tomorrow will see periods of rain but it will remain mild. Much of the region will pick up 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible. In the wake of the storm, a dry weekend will follow. It will turn briefly cooler on Saturday, but warmer air will quickly return starting on Sunday. Temperatures could again reach the 70s early next week. Even warmer temperatures are possible. Given the near-term warmth and extended guidance, New York City's Central Park is all but certain to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -1.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.290 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.2° (2.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yea and I suspect the developing Nina only serves to reinforce the -PDO This is likely a key point if one is looking far ahead to next winter. The balance of early odds seems to favor another warm winter with low snowfall, but skill this far out is essentially non-existent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 64 today, forecast was 58 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Rain will arrive toward morning. Tomorrow will see periods of rain but it will remain mild. Much of the region will pick up 0.50"-1.50" of rain with some locally higher amounts. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are possible. In the wake of the storm, a dry weekend will follow. It will turn briefly cooler on Saturday, but warmer air will quickly return starting on Sunday. Temperatures could again reach the 70s early next week. Even warmer temperatures are possible. Given the near-term warmth and extended guidance, New York City's Central Park is all but certain to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.2°C for the week centered around April 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.22°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -1.08 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.290 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March (1991-2020 normal). March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 56.2° (2.6° above normal). Hi Don Do you mean April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 7 minutes ago, psv88 said: 64 today, forecast was 58 67 at both my stations, forecast was for 59. Nice bust! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 10 Share Posted April 10 6 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Hi Don Do you mean April? Yes. Fixed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Hopefully not Yesterday was disgusting How in the heck was yesterday disgusting! It was downright beautiful! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 How much rain are we supposed to get yet again?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 45 minutes ago, TriPol said: How much rain are we supposed to get yet again?? Widespread 0.5 to 1.5 with localized higher amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: This is likely a key point if one is looking far ahead to next winter. The balance of early odds seems to favor another warm winter with low snowfall, but skill this far out is essentially non-existent. Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, TriPol said: How much rain are we supposed to get yet again?? hopefully alot, this drought is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 14 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Just a very, very early preliminary look (which means nothing at this point), would seemingly support a La Niña, orientation and strength to be determined, +QBO, -PDO, maybe neutral to negative IOD come fall?, +AMO, high solar/high geomag. Snow cover and ice cover to be determined in the fall The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together. Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 9 hours ago, allgame830 said: How in the heck was yesterday disgusting! It was downright beautiful! Tony is...... Different 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: The updated information incorporating a possible +IOD and La Niña with record Atlantic SSTs shows how active the hurricane season can be if all the pieces come together. Sounds like a 1950s type summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 20 hours ago, uofmiami said: Good agreement with GEFS and EPS for that period before ridge goes away after the 20th. Hope the signal stays as we get closer to the period. Hopefully that ridge doesn't go away after the 20th. In my experience once we hit 85, we usually don't go back to a cool pattern anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 20 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Tony is...... Different I always think that anyone who complains about heat is overweight. When you weigh 160 pounds heat doesn't bother you. The more you weigh the more you sweat. Time to stop consuming processed food and soda (including diet soda) and all that junk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hopefully that ridge doesn't go away after the 20th. In my experience once we hit 85, we usually don't go back to a cool pattern anymore i remember in 2002 we hit 90's in april it got cool after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Saw that. My question is does that rare +IOD/Nina combo continue through fall? My guess is no The current forecasts have it more neutral by fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Onshore flow keeping it between 48 and 54 around the area. Storms and rain later and overnighg upwards of 1.5 inches. Clouds and some isolated showers into Friday afternoon. Dry but cloudy Saturday. Sun (4/14) through Thu (4/18) looks dry and warm. Many areas look to get their first 80 degree readings of the season who missed it this past Tue (4/9). Beyond that another front and trough comes through later next week / weekend. Overall warmer second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 11 Share Posted April 11 Records: Highs: EWR: 87 (2011) NYC: 85 (1955) LGA: 82 (1955) Lows: EWR: 29 (1976) NYC: 24 (1909) LGA: 32 (1943) Historical: 1935: Severe dust storms across Iowa and Kansas closed schools and highways. Dodge City, Kansas experienced its worst dust storm of record, with dense dust reported from the morning of the 9th until after sunset on the 11th. The sky was almost as dark as night at times during the daylight hours. The thick dust suspended traffic on highways and railroads and also suspended most business in town. 1965 - Severe thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest spawned fifty-one tornadoes killing 256 persons and causing more than 200 million dollars damage. Indiana, Ohio and Michigan were hardest hit in the "Palm Sunday Tornado Outbreak". (David Ludlum) 1979: This day was known as "Terrible Tuesday" to the residents of Wichita Falls, Texas as a tornado rated F4 on the Fujita scale ripped through the city. A massive F4 tornado smashed into Wichita Falls killing 43 persons and causing 300 million dollars in damage. Another tornado struck Vernon, Texas killing eleven persons. 1987 - Ten days of flooding in the northeastern U.S. finally came to an end. Damage from flooding due to rain and snow melt ran into the billions of dollars. The collapse of the New York State Thruway Bridge over Schoharie Creek claimed ten lives. (Storm Data) 1988 - Sixteen cities in the western U.S., nine in California, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Afternoon highs of 95 degrees at Sacramento CA and 96 degrees at Bakersfield CA were the warmest of record for so early in the season. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Forty-four cities in the south central and eastern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 25 degrees at Conway AR, 29 degrees at Dallas/Fort Worth TX, and 22 degrees at Ozark AR, were April records. Lows of 26 degrees at Hot Springs AR and 31 degrees at Shreveport LA equalled April records. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - While showers produced heavy rain over much of the northeastern U.S., heavy snow blanketed northern Maine, with 13 inches reported at Telos Lake. Strong southwesterly winds accompanying the rain and snow gusted to 68 mph at the Blue Hill Observatory in Massachusetts. Rainfall totals of 1.04 inch at Pittsburgh PA and 1.52 inch at Buffalo NY on the 10th were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 11 Author Share Posted April 11 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Sounds like a 1950s type summer The Euro has a MJO 2,+IOD ,La Niña, record Atlantic SST summer with a ridge over the Rockies and Northeast undercut by a trough to our SW. So above average temperatures, dewpoints, and rainfall. The MJO 2 is also very active for tropical storms and hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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