Brian5671 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 9 minutes ago, jm1220 said: I don’t remember that storm at all and I would’ve cursed it to no end seeing Boston and I-90 get buried while I maybe got my 1-2” table scraps. Upton went all in here with blizzard conditions and big totals....most of the storm was heavy rain during the day...then we got a dryslot of sorts with some light garbage snows...we did get accumulating snow overnight mainly on the grass, ended up with 3-4 inches of slop. Hunter Mtn had 3 feet from what I remember Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Upton went all in here with blizzard conditions and big totals....most of the storm was heavy rain during the day...then we got a dryslot of sorts with some light garbage snows...we did get accumulating snow overnight mainly on the grass, ended up with 3-4 inches of slop The upper low probably trended north at the very end like these tend to and I’m sure especially then with lousier computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Would be interesting to have this trend south and impact us but we know that'll never happen. Instead it's going to be a dreary, cool and miserable few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 hours ago, MJO812 said: This needed to happen in February - This 3/29 0Z GEFS run’s mean NAO prediction of ~-1.75 for 3/31 is ~tied for the daily record low NAO for all of March (records go back to 1950)! The current March record is -1.75 (3/22/1980). It will also easily beat the current record low for March 31 of -1.3 (1975). - This run is predicting the lowest NAO to be ~-1.95 to -2.00 (on 4/1). Should that verify closely, it would be a record low NAO (back to 1950) for the entire period covering Feb 15th through April 7th! It will also obliterate the current record low for April 1 of -1.2 (1975). - This run implies there will be daily record low NAOs March 31-April 2nd and possible daily record lows April 3rd-5th. - The progged very strong ~April 4th nor’easter is tied to this very strong -NAO. Daily NAO back to 1950: https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.cdas.z500.19500101_current.csv 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Upton went all in here with blizzard conditions and big totals....most of the storm was heavy rain during the day...then we got a dryslot of sorts with some light garbage snows...we did get accumulating snow overnight mainly on the grass, ended up with 3-4 inches of slop. Hunter Mtn had 3 feet from what I remember I was living in Armonk at the time and we got around 11 inches. But accumulations dropped rapidly southward as Westchester airport, only a few miles south was at 6-7 inches if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Brooklyn' or Drag perhaps consider a thread for this for early awareness. pushing -3 ( perhaps - 4! ) SD anomaly ... trending under Long Island in recent guidance; this is historic/inference quite significant, and here there is enough cold. Primarily this is an interior CT and points NE emerging threat, but the wholesale manifold of synoptic metrics are not excluding this reaching back SW as a major blue snow player, either. Super synoptic considerations have shown remarkable continuity ( -NAO over the western limb) with apparent highly coupled trough. These REX couplets tend to operate within themselves and often disconnected from the telecon tapestry of the surrounding hemisphere where they set up this coherently. how does this setup compare to April 6, 1982 ? - similarities and or differences ...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how does this setup compare to April 6, 1982 ? - similarities and or differences ...... Not close since that had a 100 year Arctic outbreak in April which was the last time NYC set 3 consecutive low temperatures. It was also the last time NYC had afternoon temperatures in April in the 20s. That was the tail end of the mini ice age we had in the late 70s before our temperatures really began to take off. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, bluewave said: Not close since that had a 100 year Arctic outbreak in April which was the last time NYC set 3 consecutive low temperatures. no similarities ? is a 100 year Arctic outbreak needed this time around ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 41 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that tracked right over the area and set our new record lowest pressure in April. This one looks like the lowest pressure will be closer to Cape Cod from the model forecasts. That storm was so intense that the model forecasts from 8 days out actually did a pretty good job. We should switch to a much warmer and drier pattern for the 2nd week of April. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html I wonder if the switch to a much warmer pattern is a precursor to a very hot summer. Are you aware that our three rainiest Marches (all with 10 inches or more of rain) resulted in three of our hottest summers -- 2010, 1983 and 1980! We're at number 4 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Not close since that had a 100 year Arctic outbreak in April which was the last time NYC set 3 consecutive low temperatures. It was also the last time NYC had afternoon temperatures in April in the 20s. That was the tail end of the mini ice age we had in the late 70s before our temperatures really began to take off. it was very cold that entire week and we had a second mini snowstorm the following weekend! JFK got an inch of snow in that during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how does this setup compare to April 6, 1982 ? - similarities and or differences ...... There was also a strong -NAO then but not as strong as what’s coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no similarities ? is a 100 year Arctic outbreak needed this time around ? Our climate is much too warm now to ever see Arctic cold like that again in April. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our climate is much too warm now to ever see Arctic cold like that again in April. So that means we will never see brutally cold air again ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Wrap around snow showers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: So that means we will never see brutally cold air again ? why do you want brutally cold air anyway? it's mostly cold and dry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our climate is much too warm now to ever see Arctic cold like that again in April. I wonder when's the last time we saw cold like that even in March? 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 36 minutes ago, GaWx said: There was also a strong -NAO then but not as strong as what’s coming. -NAO can only bring that kind of cold here if that kind of cold is around to be brought here.... I'd much rather compare it to more recent April snow events. April 1996, April 1997, April 2003 and April 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 Just now, MJO812 said: So that means we will never see brutally cold air again ? Our climate has warmed way too much to ever see April cold like that again. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1923 12 0 2 1874 20 0 3 1982 21 0 - 1881 21 0 4 1919 22 0 - 1875 22 1 5 1995 23 0 - 1954 23 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 30 0 - 1881 30 0 2 1879 32 0 - 1875 32 1 3 1938 33 0 4 1944 34 0 - 1943 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 5 1940 35 0 - 1918 35 0 - 1911 35 0 - 1870 35 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, bluewave said: Our climate has warmed way too much to ever see April cold like that again. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1923 12 0 2 1874 20 0 3 1982 21 0 - 1881 21 0 4 1919 22 0 - 1875 22 1 5 1995 23 0 - 1954 23 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 30 0 - 1881 30 0 2 1879 32 0 - 1875 32 1 3 1938 33 0 4 1944 34 0 - 1943 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 5 1940 35 0 - 1918 35 0 - 1911 35 0 - 1870 35 1 I think it was in the teens in Newark in 1982. Hey Chris, can you go back to 1995, didn't we have an arctic shot in April that year with clear skies? The high was around 37 and the low was around 23 (average mid January temps), and it was windy and sunny. Maybe the temps would have stayed in the 20s that day if we had snow that day. The other cold April day I remember was in 2016 when we had temps in the 30s with snow to our east near Cape Cod. Very windy that day too. In 2003 we had three straight days in the 30s after the snowstorm. I think we warmed up quickly in 1996 and 2018 after those snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our climate has warmed way too much to ever see April cold like that again. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1923 12 0 2 1874 20 0 3 1982 21 0 - 1881 21 0 4 1919 22 0 - 1875 22 1 5 1995 23 0 - 1954 23 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of AprClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1982 30 0 - 1881 30 0 2 1879 32 0 - 1875 32 1 3 1938 33 0 4 1944 34 0 - 1943 34 0 - 1896 34 0 - 1874 34 0 5 1940 35 0 - 1918 35 0 - 1911 35 0 - 1870 35 1 that low of 12 in 1923 is pretty amazing! how come it's not on the lowest max list-- did it get that warm that day that it wasn't among the coldest April highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder when's the last time we saw cold like that even in March? 1993? March 2007 had temps in the mid teens and snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 Just now, Stormlover74 said: March 2007 had temps in the mid teens and snow that's right-- I remember it, but it was mostly sleet here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 29 Author Share Posted March 29 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: that low of 12 in 1923 is pretty amazing! how come it's not on the lowest max list-- did it get that warm that day that it wasn't among the coldest April highs? It got to 36° for a high. 1923-04-01 36 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It got to 36° for a high. 1923-04-01 36 12 I wonder if there was any snow the day before that low or on that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 It's hard to get a 30 high in winter let alone April nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So that means we will never see brutally cold air again ? You obviously didn’t read what he posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: You obviously didn’t read what he posted I did but it seems like he doesn't think so. Things go in cycles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Would be interesting to have this trend south and impact us but we know that'll never happen. Instead it's going to be a dreary, cool and miserable few days 40s and rain, talk about a horrendous weather week. Looking forward to the 2nd week of April when we'll see a big warmup to the 70s. Anyway I hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I did but it seems like he doesn't think so. Things go in cycles. He said we won’t see 21 degrees in April again like in 1982. That’s a fair assessment given how warm the planet is now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 @MJO812 you will see 95+ degrees in April before you see 30 in Brooklyn ever again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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