April 2024

[JetsPens87]

52 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I agree except that if you look back at the very hot summers you usually find some heat beginning in April or May. Not that it's mandatory. But I agree with your point and some here have mentioned a likelihood or possibility of a scary  hot summer.

WX/PT

It really depends on what it looks like coming out of this MJO Wave and blocking episode IMO. I still don't see any big sustained heat on the horizon though ensembles keep hinting at waves of well AN temps so if there's a strong correlation to Apr May temps I think we're on track.

[JetsPens87]

32 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Meanwhile the Euro having onshore winds would be 10-15 degrees cooler.

WX/PT

I think it's (correlation from Apr heat to summer temps) more about heat build then actual 2m temps in April in the tri state. And the ensembles continue to show the SE ridge building.

[JetsPens87]

50 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. 

WX/PT

What does "some heat" mean though?

Anomaly wise? 80 plus? And how long? Can we see the data set please? I'd imagine there's more to the story.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

What does "some heat" mean though?

Anomaly wise? 80 plus? And how long? Can we see the data set please? I'd imagine there's more to the story.

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. 

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I often refer to the 90+ Central Park page.

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/90DegreeDays.pdf

WX/PT

 

[Allsnow]

Not this argument again….

[JetsPens87]

20 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

A day or more of 90+ at Central Park. I always use Central Park just to keep the statistics even. 

WX/PT

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

15 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will.

WX/PT

 

[snowman19]

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

[JetsPens87]

7 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

There were 11 30+ 90 degree day summers for Central Park. 2 of them had no 90+ days prior to June. Make of that what you will.

WX/PT

 

2 out of 11... yea I mean it's hard to say whether that's statistically significant without really looking at other variables.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

Hope not

[Stormlover74]

Nice day. 60

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, WX-PA said:

Great winter with a Christmas eve snowstorm. The year I got into weather.

I've always wanted to go back and experience that winter, that was the winter I thought about during the 80s snow drought.  Also an amazing extended winter February and March were absolutely phenomenal.

The winter that reminds me the most of that one is 1995-96

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

1966 and 1983 are the only 30+ 90 degree day summers without at least some heat in April or May. 

WX/PT

What did we have in 1980?

I know that was a very hot summer, but I thought the heat began in late June.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

It really depends on what it looks like coming out of this MJO Wave and blocking episode IMO. I still don't see any big sustained heat on the horizon though ensembles keep hinting at waves of well AN temps so if there's a strong correlation to Apr May temps I think we're on track.

1993 had 1 90 degree day in May so it really doesn't take a big early season heatwave to have a record hot summer.

 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice day. 60

if tomorrow is just like this then we're golden for the eclipse!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

2 out of 11... yea I mean it's hard to say whether that's statistically significant without really looking at other variables.

1993 had only 1 and it was in May and it was a record summer for 90 degree days, this early season thing may not mean much.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

There's many more than 2 years that had 30 plus 90 degree days without a 90 degree day in April. I'd say extending that to April or May is really a stretch as you're over extending the statistic at that point.

 

Edit: by that I mean you really only have a handful of total 30 plus 90 days in recorded history so it's hard to make a conclusion that since only 2 didn't have a 90 degree day in Apr or May that the summer wouldn't have 30 plus 90 degree days.

It seems there's little statistical significance at that point. And it would only take 1 day in Apr OR May of 90 plus to blow any correlation out of the water. 

I think it's really important to analyze those years

1. 1966 had our hottest summer on record up to that point with a record number of 100 degree days too.

2. 1983 set the new record for highest number of 90 degree days to that point (at both NYC and JFK.)

3. 1993 which I'll also reference only had 1 90 degree day in that period (and it was in May) and tied the new record of most 90 degree days set in 1991 (which broke the record of 1983).

4. as 1983 as shown, late season heat can often substitute for early season heat-- check out the number of 90 degree days 1983 had in September!

 

[psv88]

54 and sunny. A bit warmer than forecast 

[JustinRP37]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

Tuesday honestly could be a sneaky just barely 80 if we get enough sun. We always seem to over perform this time of year if the winds are low and the sun is out longer before any clouds roll in. 

[SACRUS]

 

Made it to a lovely 61 and sunny today after the last 7 days of clouds, rain and cool.

[JetsPens87]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1993 had only 1 and it was in May and it was a record summer for 90 degree days, this early season thing may not mean much.

 

Yea I'd also like to see how April or May 80 or 85 plus correlates if at all to summer 90s, just not sure that 90 is some magical threshold necessarily in early season.

While an interesting tidbit...I'm not sold on needing a 90 in Apr May to get that many 90s later. There's plenty of 20 plus 90 degree day summers in there too.

 

Edit: By 20 plus I mean 20 plus 90 days in summer without an Apr or May 90. Also worthy to note that there are a couple 29 90 degree day years without an Apr or May 90. 

[bluewave]

Areas north and east of NYC have had close to 70”of precipitation since last July. 
 

Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
CT	PROSPECT 1.9 ENE	CoCoRaHS	70.99
CT	NORWICH 2.5 NNE	CoCoRaHS	70.16
NY	STONY POINT 0.7 NW	CoCoRaHS	70.06
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	69.73
CT	NORTHFORD 0.8 SW	CoCoRaHS	68.28
CT	OAKDALE 2.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	67.53
CT	GRISWOLD 0.9 N	CoCoRaHS	67.47
NY	PEEKSKILL 0.4 N	CoCoRaHS	67.24

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
CT	BRISTOL 2.7 WNW	CoCoRaHS	73.82
CT	COLUMBIA 2.6 S	CoCoRaHS	73.55
CT	BRISTOL 2.8 NNE	CoCoRaHS	73.08
CT	NEWINGTON 1.9 SSW	CoCoRaHS	72.88
MA	CONWAY 3.4 WSW	CoCoRaHS	72.49
CT	SALMON BROOK 4.9 WSW	CoCoRaHS	71.88
CT	SOUTH WINDHAM 1.3 NNE	CoCoRaHS	70.86

 

Data for July 1, 2023 through April 8, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Total Precipitation
CT	BAKERSVILLE	COOP	68.48
CT	WINSTED 3.8 ESE	CoCoRaHS	68.38
CT	LITCHFIELD 5.3 ESE	CoCoRaHS	67.85
CT	WATERTOWN 3.4 N	CoCoRaHS	65.97

[gravitylover]

I'm just a hair over 73 a few minutes west of Danbury.

[bluewave]

17 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Very confident we see our 1st 80+ degree high temp in the metro area since October by the end of this month

It would be a rarity not to reach 80° by the end of April since we have done it every year since 2001.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Apr 30	Missing Count
2024-04-30	75	23
2023-04-30	93	0
2022-04-30	88	0
2021-04-30	89	0
2020-04-30	80	0
2019-04-30	80	0
2018-04-30	84	0
2017-04-30	87	0
2016-04-30	83	0
2015-04-30	82	0
2014-04-30	83	0
2013-04-30	85	0
2012-04-30	88	0
2011-04-30	87	0
2010-04-30	92	0
2009-04-30	93	0
2008-04-30	82	0
2007-04-30	86	0
2006-04-30	83	0
2005-04-30	88	0
2004-04-30	88	0
2003-04-30	88	0
2002-04-30	97	0
2001-04-30	87	0
2000-04-30	78	0

 

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I'm just a hair over 73 a few minutes west of Danbury.

insanity.   Some places could make a run at 100 if the wet stretch continues

[TWCCraig]

Something interesting I've noticed during the last solar eclipse in 2017 is how much the temperatures drop during the eclipse. I was in SC for that one, you were able to notice the temperature drop a couple degrees simply due to the lack of sun. I'm curious to see how the eclipse will effect high temps today, I can see temps peaking early. Most weather models do not take into account the loss of heating from a solar eclipse. 

[SACRUS]

 

Down to a chilled 32, now 46.   Eclipse, eclipsed by clouds in E/C - PA- will be close.   Otherwise mid/upper 60s.  Warmest day since March 14/15 perhaps bit more and since last fall, tomorrow with low- mid 70s.  Clouds, ran Wed - Sat before drying out. Sun 4/14 into next week warmer.

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, TWCCraig said:

Something interesting I've noticed during the last solar eclipse in 2017 is how much the temperatures drop during the eclipse. I was in SC for that one, you were able to notice the temperature drop a couple degrees simply due to the lack of sun. I'm curious to see how the eclipse will effect high temps today, I can see temps peaking early. Most weather models do not take into account the loss of heating from a solar eclipse. 

Looks like the HRRR has it factored in. 
 

 

[HailMan06]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Down to a chilled 32, now 46.   Eclipse, eclipsed by clouds in E/C - PA- will be close.   Otherwise mid/upper 60s.  Warmest day since March 14/15 perhaps bit more and since last fall, tomorrow with low- mid 70s.  Clouds, ran Wed - Sat before drying out. Sun 4/14 into next week warmer.

 

 

It’ll be cool looking at this map later with the eclipse.