April 2024

[IrishRob17]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

i hope i don't miss any larger aftershocks while i'm away for the eclipse 

No worries, that’s when the big one is gonna hit, we’ll all feel it. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i hope i don't miss any larger aftershocks while i'm away for the eclipse 

Earthquake > eclipse 

[RedSky]

Kind of unusual for a 4 aftershock several hours after a 2

 

[forkyfork]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Earthquake > eclipse 

i hope a big one delays my flight

[kat5hurricane]

I don't know if it's been mentioned but...4.8 earthquake and the eclipse is on....4/8 

 

[JetsPens87]

11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Kind of unusual for a 4 aftershock several hours after a 2

 

Any implications on the future shake forecast?

[RedSky]

3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Any implications on the future shake forecast?

Hopefully not an 8.8 

[HailMan06]

2 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hopefully not an 8.8 

Go big or go home

[USCG RS]

16 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Hopefully not an 8.8 

[SnoSki14]

What's the strongest capable earthquake on the Ramapo fault. I can't imagine anything beyond a 5.5

[donsutherland1]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What's the strongest capable earthquake on the Ramapo fault. I can't imagine anything beyond a 5.5

There was a study that once suggested that it would be capable of a Magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake.

[donsutherland1]

The aftershock that was initially shown at M4.0 was reduced to M3.8.

[Dark Star]

13 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

Yea I understand the sea breeze. But that is largely overcome on that heat island in July at peak heat climo. 

It is a non factor once off the boardwalk anywhere else at that point.

Sometimes it's more orientation.  Nearer towards the Turnpike, Tremley Point Road in Linden is usually a windy place.  Not sure if the wind is drawn in from Raritan bay?

[Snowlover11]

missed the 3.8 on as i was in lala land but still impressive for here. gut feeling we will fell a few more in the coming hours.

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a study that once suggested that it would be capable of a Magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake.

That's terrifying if true.

[JetsPens87]

6 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Sometimes it's more orientation.  Nearer towards the Turnpike, Tremley Point Road in Linden is usually a windy place.  Not sure if the wind is drawn in from Raritan bay?

Oh the Raritan Bay certainly plays an influence.

My point though really is that a place like ABE or TTN would absolutely crest 110 if we had the same drought conditions as the early 2000s. There's no sea breeze effect there.

[Snowlover11]

51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There was a study that once suggested that it would be capable of a Magnitude 6 or 7 earthquake.

yikes, can’t imagine the damage if that occurred here.  hopefully that never happens in our lifetime.

[Snowlover11]

20 aftershocks since the original quake.

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Updated list of 4.0 Earthquakes, assuming the current 4.0 rating holds. Today would be the first date on which there were two such earthquakes in the NYC area.

 

Thanks for this Don.  When I first read this I thought how in the world can anything close to an estimation as precise as 5.2 be made for an earthquake which took place nearly 300 years ago.  But then I was shocked to learn (yes, on Wikipedia)  that the first seismograph/seismometer was made in the 2nd century.

Don, just curious,  would you happen to know if those magnitude numbers from the 1700s above are based on measurements from devices measuring wave amplitude?  I get that Richter's scale came many years later, and I assume that if readings were actually taken at the time of the events, that they could be plugged into his formula later.  But is that the case here or are these estimates from the 1700s arrived at by other means?

 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

Looking at the maps tonight I'm not really seeing much of any change in the weather we've been having for the last 5 weeks over the next 2 weeks. In fact the latest model guidance gives one the feeling that a cool stormy pattern could last another 2-4 weeks as GEFS tends to feature some ridging out west. Looks like last year or maybe even a little worse.

WX/PT

[gravitylover]

5 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Looking at the maps tonight I'm not really seeing much of any change in the weather we've been having for the last 5 weeks over the next 2 weeks. In fact the latest model guidance gives one the feeling that a cool stormy pattern could last another 2-4 weeks as GEFS tends to feature some ridging out west. Looks like last year or maybe even a little worse.

WX/PT

Uggh. Can ya stir the tea leaves and try again?

[bluewave]

Tuesday looks like our next 70s day of the spring before we get backdoored on Wednesday. Then our next slow moving storm system with more heavy rains and high winds from Wednesday into Friday. That MJO 8 and -NAO combo last few weeks is really having a lasting influence. I guess if we keep finding ways to avoid the MJO 8 in the winter like recent years it will catch up with us in the spring.  

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Tuesday looks like our next 70s day of the spring before we get backdoored on Wednesday. Then our next slow moving storm system with more heavy rains and high winds from Wednesday into Friday. That MJO 8 and -NAO combo last few weeks is really having a lasting influence. I guess if we keep finding ways to avoid the MJO 8 in the winter like recent years it will catch up with us in the spring.  

 

This wet pattern we’ve been in since the end of the last drought in 2002 can’t continue forever. Law of averages, eventually this cycle has to end, it’s astonishing that its even lasted 22 years

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Thanks for this Don.  When I first read this I thought how in the world can anything close to an estimation as precise as 5.2 be made for an earthquake which took place nearly 300 years ago.  But then I was shocked to learn (yes, on Wikipedia)  that the first seismograph/seismometer was made in the 2nd century.

Don, just curious,  would you happen to know if those magnitude numbers from the 1700s above are based on measurements from devices measuring wave amplitude?  I get that Richter's scale came many years later, and I assume that if readings were actually taken at the time of the events, that they could be plugged into his formula later.  But is that the case here or are these estimates from the 1700s arrived at by other means?

 

Unfortunately, the paper from which I got the earlier figures didn't provide technical information about how the measurements were made.

[coastalplainsnowman]

21 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Unfortunately, the paper from which I got the earlier figures didn't provide technical information about how the measurements were made.

Thanks for checking.  I just found this usgs link.  It doesn't say too much on the specific topic, but it references other links that look interesting too that I'm going to check out.  Sharing here in case of interest to anyone..

https://www.usgs.gov/index.php/faqs/how-do-you-determine-magnitude-earthquake-occurred-prior-creation-magnitude-scale

[MJO812]

Light pingers here

[SACRUS]

 

Down to a chilly 38 post quakes now to a variably cloudy 45.    Ramp up warmer the next subsequent 3 days to reaching the 70s on Tue (4/9), then cooler and wetter Wed - Sat (4/13). Moderation again warmer / drier 4/14 - 4/16 before next period of wetter/cooler.  Overall cooler/wetter next 10 - 14 days.   

 

Spinning away slowly

 

[SACRUS]

Northern New England snow still adding to their totals

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 83 (2023)
NYC: 80 (2023)
LGA: 80 (1947)


Lows:

EWR:  17 (1982)
NYC: 21  (1982)
LGA:  22 (1982)


Historical:

 

1936 - A tornado outbreak in the Deep South resulted in a total of 446 deaths and eighteen million dollars damage. It was a "Tale of Two Cities". During the evening of the 5th a tornado hit Tupelo MS killing 216 persons, injuring 700 others, and causing three million dollars damage. The next morning the paths of two tornadoes met about 8:30 AM and cut a swath four blocks wide through Gainesville GA killing 203 persons, injuring 934, and causing thirteen million dollars damage. Eight to ten feet of debris filled the streets following the storm. At least 70 persons died in the Cooper Pants Factory, the greatest tornado toll of record for a single building. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1973: On this date through the 8th, a major spring snowstorm dumped 11.6 inches of snow across Denver, Colorado. Most of the heavy wet snow of 10.1 inches fell on the 7th when temperatures remained in the 20s. The low temperature of 5 degrees on the 8th was a new record low for the date and the lowest for so late in the season. 

1983 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to a record cold seven degrees above zero. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Rain and melting snow caused flooding from New England to Ohio. Flooding in the Merrimack Valley of Massacusetts was the worst in fifty years, causing forty-two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A powerful storm produced wind gusts to 75 mph around Chicago, IL, and wind gusts to 92 mph at Goshen IN. The high winds created twenty-five foot waves on Lake Michigan. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in California. Afternoon highs of 91 degrees in Downtown San Francisco, 93 degrees at San Jose, 98 degrees at San Diego, 103 degrees at Santa Maria, 104 degrees at Riverside, and 106 degrees in Downtown Los Angeles established records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Snow developed in the northeastern U.S. for the second time in the month. In Virginia, a heavy wet snow blanketed northern and central sections of the Shenandoah Valley, and eastern foothills, with up to 12 inches reported around Harrisonburg. Heavy snow also blanketed the high elevations of West Virginia, with 10 inches reported at Snowshoe. An inch of snow at Syracuse NY raised their total for the winter season to a record-tying 161.3 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Thunderstorms erupted and produced severe weather including 32 reports of tornadoes, most of which touched down in Mississippi and Louisiana. Between 20 and 25 homes were destroyed and 7 people were injured. Mississippi governor Haley Barbour declared a state of emergency (CNN).

[MJO812]

Next Wednesday Thursday and Friday looks wet.