April 2024

[brooklynwx99]

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm. and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

someone is going to get crushed. I would feel a lot better if I was in Boston

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Clearly a south trend right now. GFS could give us some snow showers at least. Cold aloft and surface in the 30s

We haven’t seen a “south trend” all winter long. Good luck lol 

 

@Brian5671 Agree 100% with you, the comparisons being made by some on X to 4/6/82 are wishcasting at its finest. We had a very anomalous true arctic outbreak back then. It is apples and oranges, not even remotely close

[JetsPens87]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a “south trend” all winter long. Good luck lol 

One must acknowledge that this threat is real. As it stands...its a NNE threat. I'm not sold on the southern solutions despite the NAO jibber jabber. Persistence forecasting says otherwise. 

 

Also...keep an eye on the WAR out ahead...that's only going to allow it to come so far S When you have the primary being forced into the Great Lakes.

[Typhoon Tip]

Brooklyn' or Drag      perhaps consider a thread for this for early awareness.

pushing -3 ( perhaps - 4! ) SD anomaly ... trending under Long Island in recent guidance; this is historic/inference quite significant, and here there is enough cold.

Primarily this is an interior CT and points NE emerging threat, but the wholesale manifold of synoptic metrics are not excluding this reaching back SW as a major blue snow player, either.

Super synoptic considerations have shown remarkable continuity ( -NAO over the western limb) with apparent highly coupled trough.  These REX couplets tend to operate within themselves and often disconnected from the telecon tapestry of the surrounding hemisphere where they set up this coherently.

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

*not a forecast*
 

But I bet between now and Wednesday you will see a run that buries NYC under a CCB. It’s obviously not going to happen but it will get the usual suspects excited 

yep we'll get NAM'd 

[Jersey Andrew]

April 6, 1982 shows it can be done but in this climate I have my doubts.

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

April 6, 1982 shows it can be done but in this climate I have my doubts.

IF it were early March I'd be more excited.   Airmasses have been problematic all year....April 82 had awesome arctic cold unload that would have done January proud.

[Allsnow]

Euro at 12z run the primary up into the lakes. Transfer is late which keeps snow confined to NNE. It’s still a impactful event with rain/wind 

[jm1220]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

IF it were early March I'd be more excited.   Airmasses have been problematic all year....April 82 had awesome arctic cold unload that would have done January proud.

Any time of year would be a problem with a primary driving up to Buffalo. We would need the closed ULL a lot further south to force the redevelopment and CCB in a prime position for us. As JetsPens said, the ridging out ahead of it will try to force the upper low further north. From Boston on N I would keep a closer eye on it. The best area to be would be the high elevations like Adirondacks to Green/White Mountains and Berkshires. Even if lower elevations like Boston do get heavy snow they’d probably need to fight off marginal surface temps for a while. And again forget about any 10-1 map in this kind of marginal airmass setup unless you’re in the mountains. Down here the max potential I think is some heavier snow/table scraps precip that rots around the CCB that’s nailing New England. 

[Rtd208]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro at 12z run the primary up into the lakes. Transfer is late which keeps snow confined to NNE. It’s still a impactful event with rain/wind 

Yeah for us (the NYC metro region) heavy rain and strong winds will be the big story IMO. Still a very impactful storm like you mentioned regardless of precipitation type.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Any time of year would be a problem with a primary driving up to Buffalo. We would need the closed ULL a lot further south to force the redevelopment and CCB in a prime position for us. As JetsPens said, the ridging out ahead of it will try to force the upper low further north. From Boston on N I would keep a closer eye on it. The best area to be would be the high elevations like Adirondacks to Green/White Mountains and Berkshires. Even if lower elevations like Boston do get heavy snow they’d probably need to fight off marginal surface temps for a while. And again forget about any 10-1 map in this kind of marginal airmass setup unless you’re in the mountains. Down here the max potential I think is some heavier snow/table scraps precip that rots around the CCB that’s nailing New England. 

Yeah this isn't even good enough to be an Aprils Fools 1997 repeat for us.

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Any time of year would be a problem with a primary driving up to Buffalo. We would need the closed ULL a lot further south to force the redevelopment and CCB in a prime position for us. As JetsPens said, the ridging out ahead of it will try to force the upper low further north. From Boston on N I would keep a closer eye on it. The best area to be would be the high elevations like Adirondacks to Green/White Mountains and Berkshires. Even if lower elevations like Boston do get heavy snow they’d probably need to fight off marginal surface temps for a while. And again forget about any 10-1 map in this kind of marginal airmass setup unless you’re in the mountains. Down here the max potential I think is some heavier snow/table scraps precip that rots around the CCB that’s nailing New England. 

True-even in our best setups you need the primary to die out no further north than Pittsburgh

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

April 6, 1982 shows it can be done but in this climate I have my doubts.

There were numerous other early April snowstorms that happened after that but this isn't any of them either.

Maybe April Fools 1997 could be an analog but this isn't good enough to do what that did down here (which wasn't much.... 1-2 inches of snow, but a lot more in the mountains and in New England.)

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Brooklyn' or Drag      perhaps consider a thread for this for early awareness.

pushing -3 ( perhaps - 4! ) SD anomaly ... trending under Long Island in recent guidance; this is historic/inference quite significant, and here there is enough cold.

Primarily this is an interior CT and points NE emerging threat, but the wholesale manifold of synoptic metrics are not excluding this reaching back SW as a major blue snow player, either.

Super synoptic considerations have shown remarkable continuity ( -NAO over the western limb) with apparent highly coupled trough.  These REX couplets tend to operate within themselves and often disconnected from the telecon tapestry of the surrounding hemisphere where they set up this coherently.

I wonder if this can get snow down to the Poconos like April 1997 did.  Obviously not much for us here at the coast, but the Poconos could get something like they did in that storm.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We haven’t seen a “south trend” all winter long. Good luck lol 

 

@Brian5671 Agree 100% with you, the comparisons being made by some on X to 4/6/82 are wishcasting at its finest. We had a very anomalous true arctic outbreak back then. It is apples and oranges, not even remotely close

where are they getting 4/6/82 from this?  That winter was much colder than this one we just had and no amount of -NAO is going to generate the amount of cold our entire continent had that winter!

Sheesh and I thought I was going out on a limb trying to see if April Fools 1997 was a proper analog for this....

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you have an anomalous -NAO breaking down over the Davis Strait and a 50/50 in place, it’s a really good pattern for a significant storm. and the trough is showing up as low as -3 to -4 sigma on OP runs. climo starts to mean less when you’re dealing with that level of deviation from the mean

someone is going to get crushed. I would feel a lot better if I was in Boston

Sounds like you're thinking that April 1997 is a decent analog, as opposed to any late season snowstorm that got NYC or Long Island.

 

[SnoSki14]

41 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Yeah for us (the NYC metro region) heavy rain and strong winds will be the big story IMO. Still a very impactful storm like you mentioned regardless of precipitation type.

It'll be fun to track. Hoping for something intense and historic

[Allsnow]

Snow mean 2 inches on the eps. I counted about 4-5 hits for nyc. 
 

lots of members crush sne 

[Allsnow]

[Allsnow]

Some members take the storm down to 969 

[Rtd208]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Wow quite a few of those are pretty far south.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wow quite a few of those are pretty far south.

Yes, faster transfer on the ones that far south 

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Impressive to see the Euro, GFS, and CMC all get down to 975 mb or lower near Cape Cod. The all-time record for April there is 970 mb. So this could be the first time in April since 2007 that we get such an intense storm. We set our April low pressure record in 2007 around NYC Metro. But the models are indicating that this will reach its lowest pressure further east than the record April Nor’easter in 2007 which tracked right over Western LI.

There was snow with that storm in S NJ and it occurred 11 days after this storm is supposed to.  Low pressure tracked near JFK didn't it?

It was the Tax Day noreaster.

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yes, faster transfer on the ones that far south 

Yeah I honestly was not expecting to see that.

[brooklynwx99]

trough on the EPS is deeper with stronger blocking

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Impressive to see the Euro, GFS, and CMC all get down to 975 mb or lower near Cape Cod. The all-time record for April there is 970 mb. So this could be the first time in April since 2007 that we get such an intense storm. We set our April low pressure record in 2007 around NYC Metro. But the models are indicating that this will reach its lowest pressure further east than the record April Nor’easter in 2007 which tracked right over Western LI.

this is more of the classic noreaster track while that was a coastal hugger.

[jm1220]

45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

There were numerous other early April snowstorms that happened after that but this isn't any of them either.

Maybe April Fools 1997 could be an analog but this isn't good enough to do what that did down here (which wasn't much.... 1-2 inches of snow, but a lot more in the mountains and in New England.)

I’d have to look up the specific examples but the April storms we got like 2003 and 2018 were southern sliders that went underneath our area, not big closed upper lows where we’re waiting for the primary to die off. That primary kills whatever marginal airmass we have anyway to start with, and also a huge dry slot. We need the whole upper low etc setup to depart well south of us, I’d say no further north than Ocean City MD/Cape May maybe. The CCB will set up north and eventually west of the upper low as it matures, that’s why maybe we’d get table scraps snow/white rain around the matured upper low. That’s what happened to us in the 4/1/97 storm-most of us got screwed because the upper low was too far north and it buried I-90.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’d have to look up the specific examples but the April storms we got like 2003 and 2018 were southern sliders that went underneath our area, not big closed upper lows where we’re waiting for the primary to die off. That primary kills whatever marginal airmass we have anyway to start with, and also a huge dry slot. We need the whole upper low etc setup to depart well south of us, I’d say no further north than Ocean City MD/Cape May maybe. The CCB will set up north and eventually west of the upper low as it matures, that’s why maybe we’d get table scraps snow/white rain around the matured upper low. That’s what happened to us in the 4/1/97 storm-most of us got screwed because the upper low was too far north and it buried I-90.

Right, sounds like April 1997 is top end potential for us.... and we got 1-2 inches in that which is amazing for April but far short of the 8-16 inch forecasts.

Do you remember those forecasts--- they were talking a full on blizzard, and it only happened in the mountains and then up at Boston, where they got 30 inches!

It's absolutely amazing that Boston could get such a huge snowstorm in April!

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Right, sounds like April 1997 is top end potential for us.... and we got 1-2 inches in that which is amazing for April but far short of the 8-16 inch forecasts.

Do you remember those forecasts--- they were talking a full on blizzard, and it only happened in the mountains and then up at Boston, where they got 30 inches!

It's absolutely amazing that Boston could get such a huge snowstorm in April!

I don’t remember that storm at all and I would’ve cursed it to no end seeing Boston and I-90 get buried while I maybe got my 1-2” table scraps. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t remember that storm at all and I would’ve cursed it to no end seeing Boston and I-90 get buried while I maybe got my 1-2” table scraps. 

and a busted forecast of 8-16 inches for us lol