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If it's any consolation...beyond this week the ensembles are in near unanimous agreement on a more seasonal and dry pattern evolving as blocking breaks down.

 

While this doesn't look like a torch signal...it is certainly warmer and drier.

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.a42547b326307094392c22ef8b143e1f.pngeps_z500a_namer_61.thumb.png.12fbbdc67e4cfb5da41c46c775b1be54.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.b8e05d2a039bca95343a3e0ea0bd5975.png

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is going to be one of the strongest closed lows that we have seen this time of year. 
 

35DDD50A-1137-4199-A092-1FE7B877E9CA.jpeg.b54c1144a1b6da705d6d8a780bcb4b2a.jpeg

 

Is there a big swing  just beyond this by the 11th with bg ridge and warmth / first 80s 11 - 14?

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The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM. 


B52CBF11-9339-4635-8C3E-A30EDD6C4126.thumb.png.20887c4085edcba2ae52b94a1a8370ac.png

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53 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

If it's any consolation...beyond this week the ensembles are in near unanimous agreement on a more seasonal and dry pattern evolving as blocking breaks down.

 

While this doesn't look like a torch signal...it is certainly warmer and drier.

 

gem-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.a42547b326307094392c22ef8b143e1f.pngeps_z500a_namer_61.thumb.png.12fbbdc67e4cfb5da41c46c775b1be54.pnggfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.thumb.png.b8e05d2a039bca95343a3e0ea0bd5975.png

I guarantee your post here is going to get more "likes" than any other post in this entire thread by anyone lol.

 

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The SPC HREF should be interesting next few days as this could be an unusually convective system near the secondary low. So rainfall totals and winds may exceed what the globals are showing. Plenty of MUCAPE showing up on hi res NAM. 


B52CBF11-9339-4635-8C3E-A30EDD6C4126.thumb.png.20887c4085edcba2ae52b94a1a8370ac.png

this could be really bad for the trees.

we have already seen some trees come down with previous windy rainy systems this year.

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15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

A location in WI will do better with snow then NNE now 

NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Is there a big swing  just beyond this by the 11th with bg ridge and warmth / first 80s 11 - 14?

Depends on how much we can dry out after this week and reduce the onshore flow. The first 80° of the season will be later than average since 2010 due to all the clouds and record rainfall and onshore flow. But we should at least be able to make it back to around 70° by the 2nd week of April. 

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-25 (2010) 167
Mean 03-31 10-12 193
Maximum 04-18 (2015) 11-07 (2022) 231
2023 04-06 (2023) 83 10-28 (2023) 84 204
2022 04-14 (2022) 88 11-07 (2022) 81 206
2021 03-26 (2021) 84 10-20 (2021) 80 207
2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191
2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231
2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223
2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173
2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167
2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180
2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172
2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205
2010 04-05 (2010) 81 09-25 (2010) 90 172
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44 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. 

Unfortunately this IS the storm to end this garbage and misery lol

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14 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Unfortunately this IS the storm to end this garbage and misery lol

Thankfully it looks like this week is the beginning of the end of this horrific pattern. My little cousin’s little league season starts on Saturday. Hoping for decent weather from here on out for them

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2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Thankfully it looks like this week is the beginning of the end of this horrific pattern. My little cousin’s little league season starts on Saturday. Hoping for decent weather from here on out for them

It won't be good weather for little league this weekend, too cool.  I have at least 3 games for my son's travel baseball from Friday evening to Sunday morning, with more depending on how they do in tournament.  Wish the warmer weather for April 8th onward would start sooner.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

NNE will probably be fine. The storm cutting north over MI allows that WAA to max out further west and the secondary to take over and lock in the cold. Might still be worth watching down to I-90, even in Boston I’d keep an eye open. Here of course it’s just another flavor of misery. Whatever can end this complete garbage pattern I’m down for. 

Euro is very warm for NNE. 987 primary over the lakes. Huge storm WI 

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Results pretty much the same but this system is nothing like what was modeled 4-6 days ago.  Only real difference in sensible weather will be much less wind and coastal effects around here.  Significant rainfall and coastal effects (minor to some moderate beach erosion and tidal flooding) from onshore flow will still occur albeit on a lesser scale that what was originally modeled.  Yet another 4-6 day long range fail.  I'm not suggesting a "snow fail" as that was never really in the cards for this sub forum.  More of a very deep, slow moving coastal low fail.

 

 

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It's waaaaaay out in la la land but some pretty good consensus and signals for a strongish mid lattitude cyclone mid month moving NE from the lower plains.

With the anticipated breakdown in blocking and a stronger SE ridge/War signal, it is possible that this is a significant severe weather setup for the central US and quite possibly the Ern seaboard. It's not worth putting details to paper yet but it's likely the first opportunity at a true Springtime severe weather cyclone.

As a severe weather enthusiast myself, I'm always looking for that first opprtunity of the season.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_43.png

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ec-aifs_mslp_pcpn_us_37.png

ec-aifs_mslp_pcpn_us_42.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_36.png

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

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