April 2024

[forkyfork]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why don't we ever get a cutoff with 3 days of snow? In my life, I've never seen it-- only 3 days of rain (like December 1992).

 

early feb 2021

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said:

Persistent troughing in the SW near Baja has been a big thorn in the side of Ern snowlovers this winter.

Anytime you have that feature there you should expect a more potent SE ridge. The case is no different with this storm.

Ill also mention it's worth noting that since the EPO regime of years ago...another problem has been consistent energy coming into the PAC NW/swrn Canada which has consistently allowed the PNA ridge to rollover almost trapping the Baja trough underneath.

 

What it boils down to is that I've always been a believer of PAC over ATL. If your PAC is crap the ATL will respond in kind despite an anomalous NAO episode. 

Does the Pac dominate the Atl because the Pacific is much larger or is it because of weather moving west to east (or both?) I ask this because I don't think it's all about west to east, because for example the Atlantic never wrecks the big snow totals for Japan (like Sapporo or Aomori, which is the snowiest city on the planet-- they average 320 inches or 26 feet of snow every year!) So maybe it's because the Pacific is so huge that it controls the weather of the entire planet?

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I don’t think anyone up there gets that amount of sleet. 

NAM cold bias again. God awful model. It was way too cold all winter long. Outlier….tossed

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

early feb 2021

that was a mixed precip event here though.  They don't tend to be all snow here.

[Stormlover74]

Nam finally joined the other models for today's rainfall 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

NAM cold bias again. God awful model. It was way too cold all winter long. Outlier….tossed

NAM is best 0-24 hrs...outside of that it's garbage but gets way too much attention-how many posts start with "the NAM shows X" and it's at hour 72

[forkyfork]

we need to sand down the appalachians 

[JetsPens87]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Does the Pac dominate the Atl because the Pacific is much larger or is it because of weather moving west to east (or both?) I ask this because I don't think it's all about west to east, because for example the Atlantic never wrecks the big snow totals for Japan (like Sapporo or Aomori, which is the snowiest city on the planet-- they average 320 inches or 26 feet of snow every year!) So maybe it's because the Pacific is so huge that it controls the weather of the entire planet?

Great question but yes it's a combo of both.

The PAC directly influences CONUS because our primary airmasses come right off the PAC.

The ATL doesn't directly influence Japan because you have a whole continent in between but the ATL certainly influences European weather for instance.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

An interesting piece in why the CMC and GFS are so different...

 

Note the distinct lobe over Maine that exists on the CMC (and ironically the also Srn RGEM). 

This piece gets absorbed on the GFS and stays in tact on the CMC. Keeping that piece intact flattens the WAR a bit and consequential the block is allowed to act upon the primary driving it to a transfer quicker than the GFS which has a stronger WAR.

It's an interesting battle to watch as the model runs keep coming in. Its an anomalous blocking episode vs the pattern of a stronger WAR. I'd wager somewhere in between at this juncture. That's because even though yes the ensembles are smoothing this piece a bit by nature, it's noteworthy that the GEPS themselves aren't nearly as pronounced with that lobe of energy.

In that regard the GEPS and GEFS handle the Wrn Atlantic situation quite similarly so one must then reasonably come in with a surface prediction somewhere in between.

 

I had to do a doubletake when I saw those last two images, they look like a person having a really bad day....

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said:

Great question but yes it's a combo of both.

The PAC directly influences CONUS because our primary airmasses come right off the PAC.

The ATL doesn't directly influence Japan because you have a whole continent in between but the ATL certainly influences European weather for instance.

Thanks!  I was thinking that too.  North America is much narrower than Eurasia is (it's really one continent!)

Western Europe has a similar influence from the Atlantic like the West Coast of North America has from the Pacific, but with all that extra land mass before that air gets to eastern Asia, its influence is much diminished.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we need to sand down the appalachians 

I've been saying this for years!  The first step towards geoengineering.

[bluewave]

27 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

100% agreed. Until we see pac improvements it will be a struggle for eastern snow enthusiasts. We have witnessed so many of these strong blocks the past few years produce nothing because of a awful pacific configuration 
 

In the old days a hostile Pacific didn’t didn’t feature the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. This is more a feature of the 2020s -NAO patterns. My guess is that this is related to the record Atlantic SSTs. 

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

NAM is best 0-24 hrs...outside of that it's garbage but gets way too much attention-how many posts start with "the NAM shows X" and it's at hour 72

I think it's gotten worse actually-- I remember back in December 2009 it was good out to 48 hours.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

In the old days a hostile Pacific didn’t didn’t feature the -NAO linking up with the Southeast ridge. This is more a feature of the 2020s -NAO patterns. My guess is that this is related to the record Atlantic SSTs. 

 

This is probably why it'll be hard to get dry years anymore like we had during the 60s and even mid to late 80s to the early 90s.  Do you remember how different the Atlantic was back then?  We had a lack of tropical cyclones and some very dry years.

 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is probably why it'll be hard to get dry years anymore like we had during the 60s and even mid to late 80s to the early 90s.  Do you remember how different the Atlantic was back then?  We had a lack of tropical cyclones and some very dry years.

 

That was a solid -AMO back then...since it flipped in 1995 to +AMO things have been wetter

[Dark Star]

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been saying this for years!  The first step towards geoengineering.

More recent coal mining removes the tops of the mountains...

[rclab]

19 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we need to sand down the appalachians 

 

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been saying this for years!  The first step towards geoengineering.

 

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

More recent coal mining removes the tops of the mountains...

Good morning all. Perhaps the visible and invisible powers would swiftly move to completely reverse  C C if they realized the $$ potential of dry continental shelves. The folks on the  40 N continental land masses might not be thrilled with the result. Stay well, as always ….

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

That was a solid -AMO back then...since it flipped in 1995 to +AMO things have been wetter

I wonder when we'll get this again.  That was back when we had a lot more below zero temperatures too.

[SnoSki14]

The SE ridging will basically help trap this cutoff for days. We'll probably get 2-3" easy out of this.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

More recent coal mining removes the tops of the mountains...

I saw a video of this, it's simply amazing how much power we have at our disposal!

 

[SACRUS]

 

46 cloudy and steady rain here in CNJ.  April 1 - 5 cloudy/ cool and wet.  The coming weekend could still be a bit unsettled as ULL pulls away.  Moderation by April 9 with ridging into the east beyond there.  

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR:  82 (1978)
NYC: 83 (1917)
LGA: 80 (1978)


Lows:

EWR: 28 (1969)
NYC: 12 (1923)
LGA: 27 (1969)

 

Historical:

1875: The London Times published the first daily newspaper weather map. The first American newspaper weather map would be issued on 5/12/1876 in the New York Herald. Weather maps would first appear on a regular basis beginning on 5/9/1879 in the New York Daily Graphic.

1912 - A tornado with incredible velocity ripped into downtown Houston, TX, breaking the water table and giving the city its first natural waterspout. (The Weather Channel)

1923 - Residents in the eastern U.S. awoke on "April Fool's Day" to bitterly cold temperatures. The mercury plunged to -34 degrees at Bergland MI and to 16 degrees in Georgia. (David Ludlum)

 

1960: The first weather satellite, TIROS 1 (Television and Infra-Red Observation Satellite) began sending pictures back to Earth. The TIROS series would have little benefit to operational weather forecasters because the image quality was low and inconsistent. The most critical understanding achieved from the new technology was the discovery of the high degree of organization of large-scale weather systems, a fact never apparent from ground and aircraft observations. 

 

1973: A tornado touches down near Brentsville, Virginia, then traveled to Fairfax hitting Woodson High School. This F2 tornado injured 37 and caused $14 million in damage.

1987 - Forty-five cities across the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 37 degrees at Apalachicola FL, 34 degrees at Jacksonville FL, 30 degrees at Macon GA, and 22 degrees at Knoxville TN, were records for April. (The National Weather Summary)

1987 - A tornado touched down briefly during a snow squall on the south shore of White Fish Bay (six miles northwest of Bay Mills WI). A mobile home was unroofed and insulation was sucked from its walls. (The Weather Channel)

1988 - A powerful spring storm produced 34 inches of snow at Rye CO, 22 inches at Timpas OK, 19 inches at Sharon Springs KS, and up to 35 inches in New Mexico. Severe thunderstorms associated with the same storm spawned a tornado which caused 2.5 million dollars damage at East Mountain TX. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Up to six inches of snow blanketed the Adirondacks of eastern New York State and the Saint Lawrence Valley of Vermont. Up to a foot of snow blanketed the Colorado Rockies. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in Texas, from southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to southern Georgia, and from northern South Carolina to the Upper Ohio Valley during the day and evening. Thunderstorms spawned a tornado at Evergreen AL, and there were more than eighty reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced baseball size hail north of Bastrop LA, and produced damaging winds which injured one person west of Meridian MS. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

[SACRUS]

 

5 days QPF

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

 

 

 

[Allsnow]

 

[Allsnow]

.10 so far as the week of rain starts 

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I think we easily see 3+ inches of rain between today and Friday morning 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

46 cloudy and steady rain here in CNJ.  April 1 - 5 cloudy/ cool and wet.  The coming weekend could still be a bit unsettled as ULL pulls away.  Moderation by April 9 with ridging into the east beyond there.  

Looks pretty good for the eclipse on the 8th as of now.

 

[JetsPens87]

31 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

5 days QPF

 

Good. The new river running through my backyard was getting a little low.

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks pretty good for the eclipse on the 8th as of now.

 

yeah this whole setup is good-the ULL pulls out over the weekend so could be decent come Monday