SACRUS Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 47 overnight with 0.17 in the bucket. Warmup upon us as low level clouds burn off. Should get most to near or low 80s today and add about 5 more to that Monday. Clouds and onshore pushes in Tue and Wedso pending on the extent of the push and clouds either upper 50s / low 60s or upper 60s / low 70s. Flow comes around more from the W on Thu and Friday and pushes us back to the 70s (pending on clouds) could be warmer near 80. The coming weekend looks cloudy with showers as we hover the boundary. 5/5 - 59 looks to cool down. Overall drier through 5/9 are we about to see a push back to much wetter around M's day. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Records: Highs: EWR: 90 (2009) NYC: 90 (2009) LGA: 89 (2009) JFK: 85 (2009) Lows: EWR: 33 (1934) NYC: 31 (1874) LGA: 36 (1947) JFK: 37 (1966) Historical: 1893: A half-mile wide estimated F4 tornado killed 23 people and injured 150 as it tore a path of devastation through Cisco, Texas. Every building in the town was either destroyed or severely damaged. 1921 - A severe hailstorm in Anson County, NC, produced hail the size of baseballs. Gardens, grain fields and trees were destroyed. Pine trees in the storm's path had to be cut for lumber because of the hail damage. (The Weather Channel) 1928 - A coastal storm produced tremendous late season snows in the Central Appalachians, including 35 inches at Bayard WV, 31 inches at Somerset PA, and 30 inches at Grantsville MD. High winds accompanying the heavy wet snow uprooted trees and unroofed a number of homes. The storm caused great damage to fruit trees and wild life. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1973: The record crest of the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri was registered at 43.23 feet on this day. This level exceeded the previous 1785 mark by 1.23 feet. This record was broken during the 1993 Flood when the Mississippi River crested at 49.58 feet on August 1st. At Memphis, Tennessee, the Mississippi was over flood stage for 63 days, more than that of the historic 1927 flood, and the river was above flood stage for an even longer 107 days at upstream Cairo, Illinois. Out of the seven largest floods on the Mississippi between 1927 and 1997, the 1973 event ranked third in both volume discharged and duration but only sixth in flood height. Over $250 million of damages were incurred mainly in the Mississippi Valley states of Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana. 1987 - Twenty cities in the western and central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 95 degrees at Houston TX, 95 degrees at Lake Charles LA, and 94 degrees at Port Arthur TX, were April records. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Miami, FL, hit 92 degrees, marking a record eight days of 90 degree heat in the month of April. Squalls produced snow in the Washington D.C. area. Belvoir VA reported a temperature reading of 57 degrees at the time the snow began. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Strong northerly winds and heavy snow ushered cold air into the north central U.S. Snowfall totals in Montana ranged up to 20 inches at Miles City. Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Texas to the Southern Appalachians and the southern Ohio Valley. Hail four and a half inches in diameter was reported at Keller TX and White Settlement TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. during the day. Severe thunderstorms spawned four tornadoes, including one which injured four persons at Inman SC. There were also more than one hundred reports of large hail and damaging winds, with better than half of those reports in Georgia. Strong thunderstorm winds injured four people at Sadler's Creek SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Twenty-nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the 80s and lower 90s. Highs of 88 degrees at Binghamton NY, 94 degrees at Buffalo NY, 89 degrees at Erie PA, 90 degrees at Newark NJ, 93 degrees at Rochester NY and 92 degrees at Syracuse NY, were records for the month of April. (The National Weather Summary) 1991: Memphis, Tennessee recorded their wettest April ever with 15.03 inches, breaking their previous record of 13.90 inches in 1872. 2002: During the evening hours, a violent F4 tornado carved a 64-mile path across southeast Maryland. The La Plata, Maryland tornado was part of a larger severe weather outbreak that began in the mid-Mississippi Valley early on that day and spread across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic States. In Maryland, three deaths and 122 injuries were a direct result of the storm. Property damage exceeded $100 million. Tornadoes along the Atlantic coast are not frequent, and tornadoes of this magnitude are extremely rare. Only six F4 tornadoes have occurred farther north and east of the La Plata storm: Worchester, Massachusetts - 1953; New York/Massachusetts - 1973; Windsor Locks, Connecticut - 1979; five counties in New York - 1989; New Haven, Connecticut - 1989; North Egremont, Massachusetts - 1995. None was as close to the coast. The tornado traveled across the Chesapeake Bay almost to the Atlantic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Daylight H:13 M:51 Roughly equivalent to August 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Ok JB lol No it doesn't mean next winter will be good, but the hot and dry summer call looks pretty good right now. It's already starting to dry out and heat is almost a given. You can put 1983 in this list too, so 1983, 1995 and 2010 analogs are good for the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 5 hours ago, ForestHillWx said: Curious to see how fast we warm up today; yesterday was raw. Never made it above 54 degrees and with occasional drizzle while mowing the yard. Though, it was a good day for the fire pit to start burning all of the downed sticks/limbs in the yard from the winter. Hi @ForestHillWx- I see Rutgers just installed a new obs. network site in Chester. Anywhere near your location. Kind of nice to have an official site in your home town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No it doesn't mean next winter will be good, but the hot and dry summer call looks pretty good right now. It's already starting to dry out and heat is almost a given. You can put 1983 in this list too, so 1983, 1995 and 2010 analogs are good for the summer. Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Way, way too early to think about winter, but just based on the current solar cycle, I would hedge very strongly against a -NAO winter right now. In the last 45 years (since 79-80), we have had 6 -NAO winters. All of them, without exception, occurred during a solar minimum, with a very low number of sunspots and low geomag activity. Definitely not a coincidence and HM wrote up a detailed explanation of why that is years ago. Wish I still had the link to it. But we have the exact 180 degree opposite of that solar setup this year I think for the winter we might be looking at 1973-74 and 1983-84, warmer version of course. Which means maybe a couple of minor/moderate 4-6 inch events, pac dominated and lack of blocking. But I'm gung ho on a hot and dry summer (at least dry June and July-- August could be wetter depending on TC affecting our region, but dry otherwise.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think for the winter we might be looking at 1973-74 and 1983-84, warmer version of course. Which means maybe a couple of minor/moderate 4-6 inch events, pac dominated and lack of blocking. But I'm gung ho on a hot and dry summer (at least dry June and July-- August could be wetter depending on TC affecting our region, but dry otherwise.) We are primed for a very strong La Niña event. If the IOD goes negative like the CFS monthly is suggesting, it’s really off to the races, i.e. 73-74, 88-89. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Received .05" rainfall overnight. Water in the gauge is greenish yellow in color. Pollen season is here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Starting to wonder if we will reach the forecasted high of around 80 today, temps seem to be struggling a bit. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Starting to wonder if we will reach the forecasted high of around 80 today, temps seem to be struggling a bit. We'll see. 64 now. If we do reach 80 it'll be late afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 2 hours ago, MANDA said: Hi @ForestHillWx- I see Rutgers just installed a new obs. network site in Chester. Anywhere near your location. Kind of nice to have an official site in your home town. Not far at all, maybe 3 miles as the crow flies. I recently saw it, didn’t know it was an official site. Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 33 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Not far at all, maybe 3 miles as the crow flies. I recently saw it, didn’t know it was an official site. Good to know. Yeah, one of the Rutgers network sites. You can view the data here: https://www.njweather.org/ Picture of the station for those interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 76 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Current temp up to 76 here. Picked up 0.16" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Up to 74 here and mainly sunny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Turtles were out in full force Up to 79 now 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Up to 80 clouds and showers along NJ-NY border 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May remains on course to start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -5.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.920 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Tomorrow will likely be the warmest day of the week with widespread readings in the upper 70s and lower 80s. The hottest spots could reach the middle or upper 80s with perhaps a few 90° highs. May remains on course to start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -5.12 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.920 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.6° (1.9° above normal). It was actually humid today and the sky was milky white instead of pristine blue. Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Showers here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Nice sprinkles for the plants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: It was actually humid today and the sky was milky white instead of pristine blue. Yuck! If you're saying yuck with dews in the mid 50s...you have a very long summer ahead of you my friend Though right now it's actually humid with ewr reporting a dew at 64. Yeah we have a long summer ahead of us haha 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Just now, SRRTA22 said: If you're saying yuck with dews in the mid 50s...you have a very long summer ahead of you my friend I know! I liked it much better with clear blue skies and low humidity lol. Although it's Sunday and I was cooking food for the entire week today so the whole house got hot from that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I know! I liked it much better with clear blue skies and low humidity lol. Although it's Sunday and I was cooking food for the entire week today so the whole house got hot from that. Oh man I know the feeling...cooking Sunday dinner tonight was brutal....dews in my kitchen must've reached 80+ from all the pasta I was cooking haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 2 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Oh man I know the feeling...cooking Sunday dinner tonight was brutal....dews in my kitchen must've reached 80+ from all the pasta I was cooking haha Same meal same feeling pizano 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 7 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: Oh man I know the feeling...cooking Sunday dinner tonight was brutal....dews in my kitchen must've reached 80+ from all the pasta I was cooking haha Yeah it definitely felt like a sauna lol, and then it just gets stuck inside the house even when you open the windows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 Looks like another round of heavier showers moving through 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 High for the day was 82 here. Picked up 0.22" of rain for the day. Current temp 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 29 Share Posted April 29 37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Looks like another round of heavier showers moving through Had a decent downpour here. Didn't last long but it delivered a quick quarter of an inch of rain. The soil was very dry, so I'm glad we got a watering. Had a high temp of 80. Looking for 87 or 88 tomorrow. We might get another little downpour with the backdoor cold front during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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