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April 2024


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14 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Tomatoes do very well in the heat, but I've found that peppers don't like it too hot. They often slow down during very hot periods in the summer. I usually get my best crop of peppers during the early fall when it has cooled off. 

I'm looking through my pictures to see what year my garden did the best, it turns out it was 1993.  But I was also using cow manure back then..... lol

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First rumbles of thunder for 2024. Light rain, heavy rain missing me to the west. I noticed the clouds starting to look pretty cumulonimbus about an hour ago and I thought I was wrong.

It was just well into the 70’s and now this.

Edit: Close lightning strike, sounded like an explosion, car alarms going off.

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6 minutes ago, Cfa said:

First rumbles of thunder for 2024. Light rain, heavy rain missing me to the west. I noticed the clouds starting to look pretty cumulonimbus about an hour ago and I thought I was wrong.

It was just well into the 70’s and now this.

didn't we have thunderstorms last week? we had rain and then the sun came out....

I think it was two Saturdays ago?

 

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11 minutes ago, Cfa said:

First rumbles of thunder for 2024. Light rain, heavy rain missing me to the west. I noticed the clouds starting to look pretty cumulonimbus about an hour ago and I thought I was wrong.

It was just well into the 70’s and now this.

we need the front to fully pass through and push this junk offshore completely

 

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A strong shot of cold will overspread the region tonight. The temperature will fall into the lower 40s and perhaps even upper 30s in New York City tomorrow morning. Readings near or below freezing are possible well north and west of the City tonight and tomorrow night. The mercury will remain in the 50s throughout tomorrow.

It will likely turn noticeably warmer on Sunday as April nears an end. May will likely start out with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -15.50 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.523 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.2° (1.5° above normal).

 

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Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in the outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component and was weaker with some clouds which came in warmer than guidance. 

628D5D9C-8435-403E-A45E-049F05281B2E.thumb.jpeg.f715f258599764e5b5aa4df8845c7237.jpeg


 

 

A66C99A7-67D3-41BF-86CD-DF3FD838CF4D.thumb.png.71b29952453a428a6512ad09a93ed0ab.png

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component which came in warmer than guidance. 

628D5D9C-8435-403E-A45E-049F05281B2E.thumb.jpeg.f715f258599764e5b5aa4df8845c7237.jpeg


 

 

A66C99A7-67D3-41BF-86CD-DF3FD838CF4D.thumb.png.71b29952453a428a6512ad09a93ed0ab.png

 

and also the clouds, which were pretty low here this morning.

Chris, what's the latest that we've seen 32 degrees at the park or city airports over the past 50 years or so? I'm curious about how we're seeing mid to upper 30s occurring later now than they used to, but our last freeze always seems to be in late March now.

 

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Down to 42, now to 45 partly to mostly cloudy, clearing by early afternoon.  Chilly today mainly in the 50s - low 60s. 30s or lower inland and upper 30s metro/coastal for what should be the coldest night till the fall.   Warmer each day peaking Sun / Mon in the 80s to perhaps the first 90s in some spots.  Step down next week to open May but still overall dry / warm till about the 4th.  Then cooler beyond there for a period.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

and also the clouds, which were pretty low here this morning.

Chris, what's the latest that we've seen 32 degrees at the park or city airports over the past 50 years or so? I'm curious about how we're seeing mid to upper 30s occurring later now than they used to, but our last freeze always seems to be in late March now.

 

Looks like April 23rd at EWR (1933), NYC May 6 (1891)

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Tonight looks like it will be colder especially in the areas that radiate well. 20s possible in the Pine Barrens at FOK as the big high moves over the area. So a freeze is possible in the outlying areas. The CAA this morning had a bit of an easterly component and was weaker with some clouds which came in warmer than guidance. 

628D5D9C-8435-403E-A45E-049F05281B2E.thumb.jpeg.f715f258599764e5b5aa4df8845c7237.jpeg


 

 

A66C99A7-67D3-41BF-86CD-DF3FD838CF4D.thumb.png.71b29952453a428a6512ad09a93ed0ab.png

 

Good morning BW. Thank you for the warmer than forecast minimum temperature explanation. I initially thought the Park was working its magic again. Stay well, as always ….

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8 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Down to 42, now to 45 partly to mostly cloudy, clearing by early afternoon.  Chilly today mainly in the 50s - low 60s. 30s or lower inland and upper 30s metro/coastal for what should be the coldest night till the fall.   Warmer each day peaking Sun / Mon in the 80s to perhaps the first 90s in some spots.  Step down next week to open May but still overall dry / warm till about the 4th.  Then cooler beyond there for a period.

 

vis_nj_anim.gif

How much cooler are we talking about after May 4th, Tony? Not as cool as it is now or will be tonight?

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How much cooler are we talking about after May 4th, Tony? Not as cool as it is now or will be tonight?

Gfs is chilly next Friday. Similar to this morning but euro isn't nearly as cold. Family is coming in for the Yankee game Friday night. I expect to need a hoodie or light jacket

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15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

LGA : 4/17 : 32 (1980)
JFK:  4/16 : 32 (2014)

Thats right we had a small accumulation of snow on 4/16/14!

I'm shocked it wasn't either 4/19 or 4/20 in 1983.... didn't JFK have about 2 inches of snow on that very late date? Tony, can you please check 4/19-4/20 in 1983 and see what the temperature was when it was snowing on those days?  Thanks!

 

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Little if any prolonged warmth or heat prior to May 10th. Yes a day or two of 70s to perhaps near 80 the 29th-30th of April but the upper low over the nw Atlantic continues to dominate into mid May possibly beyond.

WX/PT

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