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3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's the old brush from last fall that's a threat and the weeds and other ground cover have not come up yet so there's alot of fuel ready to go...which is why you see most fire statements in April/May vs June or July

why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff?

it's an eyesore anyway

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts :(

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts :(

 

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. 
 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 110 0
2 2009 104 0
- 1981 104 0
4 1994 102 0
5 2006 101 0
6 2023 100 2
- 1998 100 0
- 1978 100 0
- 1961 100 0
- 1960 100 0
- 1956 100 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 108 0
2 2001 105 0
- 1993 105 0
- 1966 105 0
- 1953 105 0
- 1949 105 0


 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106
NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105
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58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway

Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally.

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24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally.

I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now

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Tomorrow will be a warm day, though there will be a risk of a shower or even thundershower. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of the week.

It will likely turn noticeablywarmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -14.06 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.022 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal).

 

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49 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

what was the high for the city today?

Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes? 

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1 hour ago, vegan_edible said:

weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact 

vegan_edible gets covid

you can't make this stuff up

 

you all better be outside enjoying it for me!

Still making the rounds-at least you don't have to isolate for 5 days anymore....feel better!

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Was a beautiful 71 here in Asheville, NC. Spectacular city with incredible views and outstanding food. Highly recommended to all. 
 

tomorrow we drive the blue ridge up to Roanoke. Weather looks to cooperate 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet.  Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. 

 

Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2021 110 0
2 2009 104 0
- 1981 104 0
4 1994 102 0
5 2006 101 0
6 2023 100 2
- 1998 100 0
- 1978 100 0
- 1961 100 0
- 1960 100 0
- 1956 100 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2011 108 0
2 2001 105 0
- 1993 105 0
- 1966 105 0
- 1953 105 0
- 1949 105 0


 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Highest Max Temperature 
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108
NY MINEOLA COOP 108
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107
NJ HARRISON COOP 107
NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107
NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106
NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105

Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with  a sea breeze?

If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. 
 

https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost

SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen.

Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers.

In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph.

To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.”

The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be.

“I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said.

The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. 

Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit.

 

 

 

wow how cold did it get down here last May?

we've been having a lot of these since 2020.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with  a sea breeze?

If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze.

The heat index makes it feel just as bad if not worse on LI now with the southerly winds in the summer and regular 75+ dews. In Aug if anything the seabreeze just makes it feel worse here. 92F with a 76 dewpoint is 105 heat index, 96/71 is 104 heat index. So both in terms of actual heat are just as bad. The worst places in a heat wave now are probably the north shore of LI/much of NYC that still heat up before the seabreeze kicks in and still terrible humidity, and less chance of the T-storms that often fire inland and die before reaching the coast. 

Like Bluewave says though it's only a matter of time before we get a big heat dome here like the rest of the country's seen where we all likely get well over 100 and some places like EWR reach 110. 

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

wow how cold did it get down here last May?

we've been having a lot of these since 2020.

The 18th was the 5th latest freeze on record for FOK.

Data for May 18, 2023 through May 18, 2023
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Lowest Min Temperature 
NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 28
NY PORT JERVIS COOP 29
NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 29
NY CARMEL 4N COOP 30
CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 30
NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 31
CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 31
CT GUILFORD COOP 31
NY SHRUB OAK COOP 33
CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 33
NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 33
NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 34
CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 34
NY ST. JAMES COOP 35
CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 35
NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 35
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 36
NY WEST POINT COOP 36
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37
NY SYOSSET COOP 37
NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 37
CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 38
NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 38
NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39
NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 39
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 40
NY CENTERPORT COOP 40
NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 41
NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 42
NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 42
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43
NJ HARRISON COOP 43
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44
NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 45
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 46
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Warmer low of 46 now to 51 clouds some drizzle and light showers scattered.  Clouds clearing into EPA/NW NJ and should push east over the next 3 hours.  48 hour chill with 30s over night into Thu AM and again Thu night/ Fri morning.   Warmup Saturday but looks cloudy before back to 70s / some 80s Sunday and Mon looks to be the warmest day of the year so far since Sep 12. Some onshore but extent it cools us beyond Monday and into the start of next month to be determined.  Overall drier and warmer once to Saturday and beyond with some strong warmth 4/27 - 4/29-30th.

 

GOES16-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif  

 

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