LibertyBell Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: it's the old brush from last fall that's a threat and the weeds and other ground cover have not come up yet so there's alot of fuel ready to go...which is why you see most fire statements in April/May vs June or July why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff? it's an eyesore anyway 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall. the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Just about or less than an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks back to 4/4 for a large part of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff? it's an eyesore anyway fires get rid of that stuff 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: fires get rid of that stuff Good point! Burn on! I actually don't mind fires unless they burn down someone's house or hurt someone. Brush fires are natural and should occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 13 minutes ago, SACRUS said: Just about or less than an inch of rain in the last 3 weeks back to 4/4 for a large part of the region. Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: why doesn't someone get rid of this stuff? it's an eyesore anyway Grab a rake and some long handled loppers and have at it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: the problem with late season freezes and frosts is also about perennials that bloom early because of unseasonal warm weather that happened earlier and then they get damaged by the out of season freezes and frosts One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen. Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers. In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph. To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. “We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.” The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be. “I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said. The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Good riddance to the rain-- it should only rain every 10 days I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 23 Author Share Posted April 23 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet. Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 110 0 2 2009 104 0 - 1981 104 0 4 1994 102 0 5 2006 101 0 6 2023 100 2 - 1998 100 0 - 1978 100 0 - 1961 100 0 - 1960 100 0 - 1956 100 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 58 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I hope we go into a legit drought from here on out to be honest. Would be the 1st one in the region since 2002, we’re due anyway Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 On 4/22/2024 at 3:42 PM, nycwinter said: nws forecast as of this morning does not call for 70 tomorrow... It hit 72 here today. I knew today would overperform for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Will be tough given the warm Atlantic SST's and likely tropical systems affecting the eastern states-would need a heat dome with west winds...I don't see that personally. I doubt it too but stranger things have happened. I’m actually rooting for it. A major drought would not bother me in the least right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 Tomorrow will be a warm day, though there will be a risk of a shower or even thundershower. Overall, generally cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through most of the week. It will likely turn noticeablywarmer as April concludes with May starting with warmer to much warmer than normal temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.03°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring. The SOI was -14.06 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.022 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April (1991-2020 normal). April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 55.0° (1.3° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 what was the high for the city today? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 20 minutes ago, nycwinter said: what was the high for the city today? 65 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 49 minutes ago, nycwinter said: what was the high for the city today? Let me guess…you were disappointed that you couldn’t be in a winter parka, long john’s, a scarf, a wool hat, mittens and galoshes? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact vegan_edible gets covid you can't make this stuff up you all better be outside enjoying it for me! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 61 my high. Now down to 49 with the chilly sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 1 hour ago, vegan_edible said: weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact vegan_edible gets covid you can't make this stuff up you all better be outside enjoying it for me! Still making the rounds-at least you don't have to isolate for 5 days anymore....feel better! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Was a beautiful 71 here in Asheville, NC. Spectacular city with incredible views and outstanding food. Highly recommended to all. tomorrow we drive the blue ridge up to Roanoke. Weather looks to cooperate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The lack of an extreme drought since 2002 has been the only reason we haven’t made it to 110°+ yet. Places like Olympia, Washington did it back in 2021 with the extreme drought out West. Notice that they beat their previous record high by 6°. That would be something like 114° at Newark and surrounding locations if we ever beat the 2010-2011 all-time highs by a similar margin. 2010-2011 before the August 2011 deluge was just a run of the mill dry pattern and we still put up such big numbers. Time Series Summary for Olympia Area, WA (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 110 0 2 2009 104 0 - 1981 104 0 4 1994 102 0 5 2006 101 0 6 2023 100 2 - 1998 100 0 - 1978 100 0 - 1961 100 0 - 1960 100 0 - 1956 100 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1953 105 0 - 1949 105 0 Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2011Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 108 NY MINEOLA COOP 108 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 107 NJ HARRISON COOP 107 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 107 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 106 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 105 Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with a sea breeze? If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 5 hours ago, bluewave said: One of the greatest challenges is that while spring is arriving earlier, we can still get these late season freezes especially in the interior Northeast. Warmer winters and and quicker starts to spring cause an earlier bloom. Then the earlier blooms are susceptible to very damaging hard freezes like last May. We had much earlier 80s and 90s than usual last April before the record hard freeze in the interior last May. https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2023/06/14/federal-assistance-sought-for-northeastern-vineyards-orchards-hit-by-late-frost SHELBURNE, Vt. (AP) — Vineyards and apple orchards across the Northeast are still gauging damage from a late-season frost in May that wiped out a third to most of the crop for some growers who say it’s the worst frost damage they have ever seen. Some states are seeking federal disaster declarations, which would make low-interest loans and other programs available to affected growers, while agriculture officials across the region are contemplating together asking the U.S. Department of Agriculture for direct aid to farmers. In southern Vermont, Scott Farm Orchard lost up to 90% of its apple crop when the temperature dipped to 25 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 3 degrees Celsius) for five hours on May 18. At the northern end of the state, Shelburne Vineyards in Shelburne, Vermont, lost about 50% of its grape crop, which is potentially a half-million dollar revenue loss, according to head wine grower and vineyard manager Ethan Joseph. To make up for lost production, Shelburne Vineyards plans to buy additional grapes at a time when its overall costs this year will be higher due to the frost, Joseph told The Associated Press. The vineyard has wine in stock to sell and it's not off the table that it could raise prices, he said. “We’ve never seen this kind of freeze event, certainly in the history of the vineyard,” Joseph said. “I’ve been here for 16 years. We’ve never seen anything like it.” The widespread frost hit the large wine-producing region of the Finger Lakes in upstate New York where it's estimated about half of the grape crop was lost regionwide, according to Kyle Anne Pallischeck, executive director of the Finger Lakes Wine Alliance. Depending on their location, some vineyards were hit hard and others had little to no damage. Vineyard owners say it's still too early to tell what the final financial impact will be. “I’ve been in this almost 40 years, doing it full-time and this is by far and away the worst,” said David Stamp, vineyard manager of Lakewood Vineyards, in Watkins Glen, New York, of the frost damage. He estimated their total crop loss at about 30% to 40% though it's tough to tell since the damage is scattered throughout the vineyards. “I mean, if you put all the years together that we’ve had any damage it’s not even a quarter of what this is,” he said. The losses will mean shorter supplies of certain wines next year and higher prices for apples this year. Some vineyards and orchards are having to reduce staff. Keuka Lake Vineyards, in Hammondsport, New York, estimates it lost between 50% and 65% of its crop, said Mel Goldman, owner and vineyard manager. “We lost a lot,” Goldman said, adding it will take a few weeks before a final verdict as the vines produce secondary buds and shoots that could bear fruit. wow how cold did it get down here last May? we've been having a lot of these since 2020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Still making the rounds-at least you don't have to isolate for 5 days anymore....feel better! thank you, so far just a headache and a low grade fever that advil wiped away, hoping those are my only symptoms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wouldn't it be funny if it was so hot that JFK even hit 100 with a sea breeze? If Newark got to 114 JFK would definitely hit 100 even on a southerly breeze. The heat index makes it feel just as bad if not worse on LI now with the southerly winds in the summer and regular 75+ dews. In Aug if anything the seabreeze just makes it feel worse here. 92F with a 76 dewpoint is 105 heat index, 96/71 is 104 heat index. So both in terms of actual heat are just as bad. The worst places in a heat wave now are probably the north shore of LI/much of NYC that still heat up before the seabreeze kicks in and still terrible humidity, and less chance of the T-storms that often fire inland and die before reaching the coast. Like Bluewave says though it's only a matter of time before we get a big heat dome here like the rest of the country's seen where we all likely get well over 100 and some places like EWR reach 110. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 12 hours ago, vegan_edible said: weather gets absolutely perfect, california-esque in fact vegan_edible gets covid you can't make this stuff up you all better be outside enjoying it for me! Get well soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow how cold did it get down here last May? we've been having a lot of these since 2020. The 18th was the 5th latest freeze on record for FOK. Data for May 18, 2023 through May 18, 2023Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 28 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 29 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 29 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 30 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 30 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 31 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 31 CT GUILFORD COOP 31 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 33 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 33 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 33 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 34 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 34 NY ST. JAMES COOP 35 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 35 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 35 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 36 NY WEST POINT COOP 36 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37 NY SYOSSET COOP 37 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 37 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 38 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 38 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 39 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 39 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 40 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 40 NY CENTERPORT COOP 40 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 41 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 42 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 42 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 43 NJ HARRISON COOP 43 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 44 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 46 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 There's definitely warm days ahead but with cold ssts in the northwest Atlantic and residual blocking, wouldn't be surprised to see backdooring well into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's definitely warm days ahead but with cold ssts in the northwest Atlantic and residual blocking, wouldn't be surprised to see backdooring well into JUNE Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted April 24 Share Posted April 24 Warmer low of 46 now to 51 clouds some drizzle and light showers scattered. Clouds clearing into EPA/NW NJ and should push east over the next 3 hours. 48 hour chill with 30s over night into Thu AM and again Thu night/ Fri morning. Warmup Saturday but looks cloudy before back to 70s / some 80s Sunday and Mon looks to be the warmest day of the year so far since Sep 12. Some onshore but extent it cools us beyond Monday and into the start of next month to be determined. Overall drier and warmer once to Saturday and beyond with some strong warmth 4/27 - 4/29-30th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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