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Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.
 

22233A40-E036-48B9-A88B-77B4390E3F79.thumb.png.a393c86dc3bee16d134e5c17d169f759.png
A10C7B55-A39C-4AAC-8558-20030BD21A2C.thumb.png.486b177624706974db6730a0789a6f77.png

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12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.
 

22233A40-E036-48B9-A88B-77B4390E3F79.thumb.png.a393c86dc3bee16d134e5c17d169f759.png
A10C7B55-A39C-4AAC-8558-20030BD21A2C.thumb.png.486b177624706974db6730a0789a6f77.png

Definitely possible if we trend drier. Also tend to be a little warmer than guidance once the sun's out. 

 

Nightfall, especially by me, the sugar sand loves to radiate off throughout the night. Could see mid 20s. Good shot at a 50 degrees temperature change. 

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17 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Definitely possible if we trend drier. Also tend to be a little warmer than guidance once the sun's out. 

 

Nightfall, especially by me, the sugar sand loves to radiate off throughout the night. Could see mid 20s. Good shot at a 50 degrees temperature change. 

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.


2E7E8F9F-7221-4607-B1B8-BB705F6DD80D.thumb.png.52c32fd6ba0be7aca78c12b0eda481d1.png

 

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.


2E7E8F9F-7221-4607-B1B8-BB705F6DD80D.thumb.png.52c32fd6ba0be7aca78c12b0eda481d1.png

 

I never like seeing that massive 500 low east of us like that. From that view maybe we’re safe for a couple days but it’s not far off. 

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Cue the "Its rained so much how could there be any brush fires?" posts. 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

NYZ067>070-240000-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD TODAY...

The combination of low relative humidity between 25 and 30 percent
and south winds gusting around 20 mph will result in an enhanced
risk of wildfire spread. If any fires were to start the weather
and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of
control and be difficult to contain.

The annual NY statewide burn ban is in effect until May 14th. No
burn permits are issued.
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16 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:
Cue the "Its rained so much how could there be any brush fires?" posts. 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

NYZ067>070-240000-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
822 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...ENHANCED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD TODAY...

The combination of low relative humidity between 25 and 30 percent
and south winds gusting around 20 mph will result in an enhanced
risk of wildfire spread. If any fires were to start the weather
and fuel conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of
control and be difficult to contain.

The annual NY statewide burn ban is in effect until May 14th. No
burn permits are issued.

Yeah, people don't get that low humidity, breezy conditions and lack of short term rainfall all dry the topsoil and fire fuel out real fast so fires are a legit threat coming up.

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1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Yeah, people don't get that low humidity, breezy conditions and lack of short term rainfall all dry the topsoil and fire fuel out real fast so fires are a legit threat coming up.

it's the old brush from last fall that's a threat and the weeds and other ground cover have not come up yet so there's alot of fuel ready to go...which is why you see most fire statements in April/May vs June or July

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27 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I never like seeing that massive 500 low east of us like that. From that view maybe we’re safe for a couple days but it’s not far off. 

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We can probably begin to plant the annuals after this weekend since the next couple of days will probably be the last freeze for the colder spots around the metro area until next fall.

yeah told my sons on the drive to school today that last night's frost might be it for the season....

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33 overnight and now to 61.  More mid/upper 60s.   Some clouds and showers overnight and into tomorrow as trough moves in,   48 hour chill down Wed PM - Fri Pm.   Last of the freeze inland  30s metro sites.  Similar warm up to the 4/14 - 4/16 coming 4/27 - 4/29.  Pending on clouds more 70s  this coming  Sat ,  70s to near 80s in the warm spots Sunday and 850s push >16c Sun into next Mon and the chance for the first 90s. Onshore / clouds to close the month 30th and open next.  Overall drier regime continues. Looks a bit back and forth as we go into the first week of next month.

 

https://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/img/vis_nj_anim.gif  

 

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Records:
 

Highs:

EWR: 88 (1996)
NYC: 86 (2007)
LGA: 85 (2007)
JFK: 87 (1973)


Lows:

EWR: 32 (1933)
NYC: 29 (1872)
LGA: 36 1986)
JFK: 34 (1986)


Historical:

 

1885 - The city of Denver, CO, was in the midst of a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 24 hours, and at Idaho Springs CO produced 32 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1910 - The temperature at the Civic Center in Los Angeles, CA, hit 100 degrees to establish an April record for the city. (The Weather Channel)

 

1948: A three block long section was devastated at the edge of Ionia, Iowa in Chickasaw County by an estimated F4 tornado. Six homes and a church were leveled, and nine other homes were severely damaged. Two deaths occurred in the collapse of the Huffman Implement Store. Overall, the tornado killed five people, injured 25, and caused $250,000 in damages. An F2 tornado touched down initially 5 miles northeast of Rochester. Barns, silos, windmills, and machinery were destroyed on four farms as this tornado tracked north.

 

1961: Severe weather struck the south suburbs of Chicago, IL. Joliet, IL reported an inch of hail with some hailstones the size of golf balls. Heavy rain from these storms also resulted in some flooding. A tornado struck the town of Peotone resulting in damage to nearly every building with damage also reported in Lorenzo and Wilton Center, IL. Estimated damage was $9 million with about 30,000 structures affected. 

 

1983 - A mini-blizzard produced sixteen inches of snow at Laramie, WY, including a foot of snow in just eight hours during the night. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in the Atlantic Coast Region produced golf ball size hail and wind gusts to 67 mph at Anderson SC. The high winds destroyed two planes at the airport, and the large hail damaged fifty other planes, and severely damaged twenty-three greenhouses. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - An intense winter-like storm brought thunderstorms to southern California, and produced snow in some of the higher elevations. Nine girls at Tustin CA were injured when lightning struck the tree under which their softball team had taken shelter from the rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Salina, KS, was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 105 degrees. The high of 105 degrees established an April record for the state of Kansas. A total of eighteen cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather in West Texas and western Oklahoma. Thunderstorms produced tennis ball size hail at Lake McKenzie TX and at Garden City TX, and produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Gage OK. Thunderstorms drenched southeast Minnesota with heavy rain, with 6.6 inches reported northwest of Browndale. High temperatures were mostly in the 80s across the central U.S. The morning low of 67 degrees at Fargo ND and afternoon high of 91 degrees were both records for the date. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1999: On Friday, April 23, 1999, a horrific hailstorm moved southeast from Pennsylvania across Garrett County, Maryland and into the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia. It had weakened some as it crossed Garrett County and the Allegany Front, but as it passed east of Keyser, West Virginia, hail began to increase in size once again. By the time it reached Capon Bridge in eastern Hampshire County, West Virginia, the size of the hail had grown from golf balls to baseballs. As it moved into Frederick County, VA, the hail storm continued to grow dropping golf ball size hail in a swath now reaching from the north of Winchester, south to Stephen City (about 10 miles). Hailstones grew to the size of Grapefruit (4 inches in diameter) east of Winchester. The storm continued east through Clarke County, southern Loudoun, and northern Fauquier doing considerable damage to Middleburg, then across Fairfax County hitting Centreville, Chantilly, Fairfax, Burke, Springfield, and Lorton with golf ball size to baseball size hail. It crossed the Potomac River and weakened slightly. It moved across northern Charles, clipped southern Prince Georges and then into Calvert County with 1 inch to 1.5-inch diameter hail and onto the Chesapeake Bay continuing southeast to the ocean. The damage left behind was incredible. In Northern Virginia alone, it amounted to over $50 million in losses to public and private properties. Some communities saw a third of the homes with siding and roof damage. Some required total replacement. Windows were broken, cars dented, and windshields smashed. Piles of shredded plant debris were left on the ground in the storm path. In about 6 hours of time, this one thunderstorm, moving at about 50 mph, did $75 million in damage. There have been other severe hail storms to hit this area before, but none to cause this much damage to property.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.


2E7E8F9F-7221-4607-B1B8-BB705F6DD80D.thumb.png.52c32fd6ba0be7aca78c12b0eda481d1.png

 

Bring it! 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Near record late April temperature drop from Wednesday into Thursday for a little over 12 hours. Highs Wednesday afternoon in the mid 60s to around 70°. Then temperatures falling as much as 35° into the 30s by Thursday morning. The usual colder spots could see a freeze or even hard freeze the further north and west you go into the interior Northeast.
 

22233A40-E036-48B9-A88B-77B4390E3F79.thumb.png.a393c86dc3bee16d134e5c17d169f759.png
A10C7B55-A39C-4AAC-8558-20030BD21A2C.thumb.png.486b177624706974db6730a0789a6f77.png

I have a question that seems like it should have a simple answer but it probably doesn't.

Why is it that it's still relatively easy to get into the upper 30s and sometimes even mid 30s in mid to late April and once in awhile even early May, but our last freezing temperatures are still occurring in late March now? Talking about the airports and close in suburbs like western Long Island.  Why haven't we seen any freezing temperatures happen after 4/15 with all these late season cold outbreaks we've had since 2020?  When was the last time one of the city airports or the Park had a low of freezing or below after 4/15? After 4/20?

 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The 850 mb temperature forecast from the Euro next Monday would support highs near 90° for the usual warm spots in NJ. But the big wild card will be whether we can push the backdoor far enough northeast. So we’ll need to get into enough sun and SW flow for the higher temperatures to be realized. But we should still have a shot at 80s even if we can’t make it into the deep SW flow.


2E7E8F9F-7221-4607-B1B8-BB705F6DD80D.thumb.png.52c32fd6ba0be7aca78c12b0eda481d1.png

 

Chris is this it for the cold weather or will it come back again after this warmup?

 

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