April 2024

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I don't know.  I know in winter I love cloudy days with snow showers with the sun setting at 4:30.  If I can like that, I can see people liking cool damp days in Spring.  

I really enjoyed the 2009 summer since it was still warm enough to go to the beach and boardwalk and it kept the beach crowds down in Long Beach. I was willing to put up with extra rainfall especially early on in June. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31	Missing Count
1	1940-07-31	71.5	0
2	2009-07-31	71.6	0
3	1947-07-31	71.7	0
4	1936-07-31	72.0	0
5	1932-07-31	72.1	0

[SACRUS]

23 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It was nice to see the sun for an hour or so.  Now back to clouds.

 

All that cloud cover west of us will take through sat pm to clear east with more mist and showers and drizzle later tonight and sturday. Sunny Sunday fourth in a row.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:09 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. I don't see much evidence for this, but [assuming you are using data from first-order sites to draw this conclusion] it seems to coincide with the move to automated weather observing systems. 

Based on a study of 76 first-order sites from September 1, 1994 to August 31, 1995, ASOS averaged +0.79F COOLER* than the temperatures measured from conventional hygrothermometers - more specifically 0.90F COOLER for daytime maxima and 0.66F COOLER for overnight minima. Of the 76 sites studied, all but nine had a cooling bias with the installation of the ASOS. The study estimated +0.53F as a systemic bias, with an additional +0.37F bias due to improper solar shielding in the conventional hygrothermometer in the daytime, and an additional bias of +0.13F [but variable] for overnight temperatures resulting from the move of the station from sites close to airport buildings to more remote areas of the airport by the runways.

What's interesting to me if you look at the temperature traces from first order sites today, it's warmed so much that this step change of nearly 1F is not even detectable. Can't help but wonder if the change in instrumentation isn't at play here if the data truly shows a decrease in heatwave length. It's certainly WAY hotter nowadays than it used to be in the summertime.

Source: https://climate.colostate.edu/pdfs/climo_rpt_96_2.pdf

Edit: Sorry, originally had warmer here. Just got the comparison mixed up, should read cooler.

New York City mostly-- it's the one which lists the longest heatwaves and when they occurred (I'm chiefly concerned with heatwaves of 7 days and longer.)

Of course climate change is making the climate warmer, but the change is nonlinear.  It means higher lows but the highest temperatures are not as hot because we are also seeing an increase in water vapor, which makes the air more difficult to heat.  The energy of the sun then goes into drying the ground first before it can heat the air.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:22 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

As a follow-up, this looks to be something specific to NYC (Central Park) ASOS. In addition to switching to an automated system at Central Park, they've also allowed a veritable jungle to encroach on the site in contravention of standard siting rules. So I would say it probably reflects a more substantial warm-season daytime cooling bias at NYC.

9 of the 20 longest streaks of 90+ at EWR are from the 21st century.

And 10 of 20 at LGA.

Yes, indeed it's about New York City.  Here on Long Island we've seen the same thing with the rapid increase in rainfall and wet summers, which blunt the high temperatures but make the lows warmer.

JFK is what I use for that data, where it goes back to the 40s and 50s when we had some of our longest heatwaves on record.

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:22 PM, TheClimateChanger said:

As a follow-up, this looks to be something specific to NYC (Central Park) ASOS. In addition to switching to an automated system at Central Park, they've also allowed a veritable jungle to encroach on the site in contravention of standard siting rules. So I would say it probably reflects a more substantial warm-season daytime cooling bias at NYC.

9 of the 20 longest streaks of 90+ at EWR are from the 21st century.

And 10 of 20 at LGA.

excellent-- LGA is very similar to JFK-- the top heatwaves are from 1953 and 2002.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:01 PM, jm1220 said:

A few 80s in central Nassau and Queens. Sea breeze on radar looks like it’s around the Southern State. As you’d expect way cooler on the barrier islands. Absolutely perfect here-77. 

I enjoyed our 80 here, we were able to hold off the sea breeze until after 2 PM

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 12:57 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Ewr 81. First 80 of the year 

I thought it also hit 80 on April 9th?

[LibertyBell]

On 4/15/2024 at 1:59 PM, psv88 said:

80.6, no humidity and blue bird skies. 
 

 

 

even here the sea breeze held off until after 2 PM so we hit 80

On 4/15/2024 at 7:30 PM, jm1220 said:

Yup, was a pretty weak sauce seabreeze. Usually it drops fast and we get the full blown Ambrose Jet this time of year. 

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I really enjoyed the 2009 summer since it was still warm enough to go to the beach and boardwalk and it kept the beach crowds down in Long Beach. I was willing to put up with extra rainfall especially early on in June. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31	Missing Count
1	1940-07-31	71.5	0
2	2009-07-31	71.6	0
3	1947-07-31	71.7	0
4	1936-07-31	72.0	0
5	1932-07-31	72.1	0

I don't know how you can enjoy that without any records weather gets boring lol

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought it also hit 80 on April 9th?

EWR only got to 77 then.

[LibertyBell]

45 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I don't know.  I know in winter I love cloudy days with snow showers with the sun setting at 4:30.  If I can like that, I can see people liking cool damp days in Spring.  

No, thats not it.  It's the endless days of cool rainy cloudy weather that sucks.  I love it when it's sunny for 7 days in a row and then it can be cool and rainy for a couple of days.  It's nice to see when it doesn't happen too often.

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

I really think that deep down, no one actually enjoys this 40 something degrees and damp weather for days on end.  I mean could understand the flip side, not liking 90 degree heat with humidity in summer, but it just seems some like to "troll" that we aren't seeing much nice weather.

It's this kind of weather that makes me wish we spent a trillion dollars on engineering the climate.

But since the sun has been out this morning here it's okay

 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I don't know how you can enjoy that without any records weather gets boring lol

It was the only June and July on record with the average high under 80° at Newark. Very unusual summer for the modern era. As soon as the pattern began to warm in August Central Park got that big microburst.

 

[SACRUS]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the only June and July on record with the average high under 80° at Newark. Very unusual summer for the modern era. As soon as the pattern began to warm in August Central Park got that big microburst.

 

 

96, 2000, 2003 also had to be close.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the only June and July on record with the average high under 80° at Newark. Very unusual summer for the modern era. As soon as the pattern began to warm in August Central Park got that big microburst.

 

I remember this, we had an amazing couple of years of severe weather in 2009 and 2010 and we had a lot of blocking in the winter which gave us our snowiest winter couplet in recorded history.  Is there a connection between the two?

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

96, 2000, 2003 also had to be close.

In the 1990s they were sandwiched between some super hot summers so that made a difference

1991-- extremely hot, record number of 90 degree days

1992-- extremely cool and rainy Pinatubo summer (?)

1993-- back to record heat and record number of 90 and 100 degree days

1995-- very dry and very hot, lots of fires

1996-- very humid but not a hot summer, we had a 2 day streak of heat in May and then didn't hit 90 again until for just one day on the last day of August.

1999-- back to record heat, record hot July (record broken in 2010)

2002-- very hot and dry 3 day heatwave in April matched 1977 but in complete opposition to that year we went to a very hot and dry summer, JFK's hottest since 1983 and hottest until 2010.

 

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It was the only June and July on record with the average high under 80° at Newark. Very unusual summer for the modern era. As soon as the pattern began to warm in August Central Park got that big microburst.

 

What was the year we had that big severe weather outbreak on my birthday (September 15th)?

 

[FPizz]

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No, thats not it.  It's the endless days of cool rainy cloudy weather that sucks.  I love it when it's sunny for 7 days in a row and then it can be cool and rainy for a couple of days.  It's nice to see when it doesn't happen too often.

 

I'm hoping this May is a repeat of last May.  I think we only had 1 total rainout.  Looking at my solar system, last May had its highest kWh output since the system was installed in 2012.  

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

96, 2000, 2003 also had to be close.

They were a few degrees warmer for the high temperatures.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31	Missing Count
1	2009-07-31	79.8	0
2	1969-07-31	80.8	0
3	1972-07-31	80.9	0
4	1985-07-31	81.0	0
-	1979-07-31	81.0	0
-	1958-07-31	81.0	0
5	1996-07-31	81.3	0
-	1947-07-31	81.3	0
6	2000-07-31	81.4	0
-	1945-07-31	81.4	0
7	2003-07-31	81.5	0
-	1936-07-31	81.5	0
8	1956-07-31	81.6	0
9	1967-07-31	81.7	0
10	1982-07-31	81.8	0

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Highest Max Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31	Missing Count
1	2009-07-31	91	0
2	1996-07-31	92	0
-	1979-07-31	92	0
-	1960-07-31	92	0
3	1976-07-31	93	0
-	1970-07-31	93	0
4	1985-07-31	94	0
-	1975-07-31	94	0
-	1939-07-31	94	0
-	1938-07-31	94	0
5	2003-07-31	95	0
-	1973-07-31	95	0
-	1967-07-31	95	0
-	1946-07-31	95	0

 

[MJO812]

[bluewave]

Nice improvements today on the 12z Euro. While there will still be a near record polar vortex near James Bay next week, the cold goes more to the east rather than the south. So the lowest NYC may get next week is the 40s rather than the 30s which were shown yesterday. But we’ll continue to watch further runs since these forecasts involving a PV nearby in Canada can jump around a lot from run to run. This is more something we see in the winter rather than in late April.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[snowman19]

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
 

 

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
 

 

 

 

 

same ol thing since early last winter-the cold is delayed or muted as it gets closer...

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

same ol thing since early last winter-the cold is delayed or muted as it gets closer...

Yup. 24 hour mild down then it’s back to above normal 

[jm1220]

29 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Models are backing off on the cold! Let’s keep this trend going! It’s a beautiful, wonderful thing!!
 

 

 

 

 

Let’s get it to a place where we have ridging east of us. If we have a deep trough of any kind over the Maritimes or W ATL, we maintain the threat of back door fronts. But the sharp cold shot looks less likely. 

[uofmiami]

I'd wait until Monday before feeling confident the moderation of the cold shot is going to happen.

[nycwinter]

another glorious mid april today... nice to wear the winter coat a second day in a row..

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Nice improvements today on the 12z Euro. While there will still be a near record polar vortex near James Bay next week, the cold goes more to the east rather than the south. So the lowest NYC may get next week is the 40s rather than the 30s which were shown yesterday. But we’ll continue to watch further runs since these forecasts involving a PV nearby in Canada can jump around a lot from run to run. This is more something we see in the winter rather than in late April.

 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

Lee Goldberg still has lows of 37 for Thursday morning and is talking about frost advisories.  I guess on the bright side, regardless of whether it's cold or not, it'll be sunny.

[LibertyBell]

38 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

another glorious mid april today... nice to wear the winter coat a second day in a row..

It's going to be sunny all next week, which is perfect.

It doesn't need to rain again until May.

[LibertyBell]

49 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Let’s get it to a place where we have ridging east of us. If we have a deep trough of any kind over the Maritimes or W ATL, we maintain the threat of back door fronts. But the sharp cold shot looks less likely. 

as long as it's sunny it won't really matter if it's cold for a few hours during the early morning hours.