April 2024

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.21" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 3.25"

[GaWx]

 Today’s NAO is -2.00, which is the most negative of any day Feb 15th through April 7th for the years 1950-present. The old record for that period was -1.84. Also, there have been record daily -NAOs the last five days:
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

 

[BucksCO_PA]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Similar numbers up this way-just crazy...we had a drought 2 summers ago-long forgotten at this point.

For the Delaware River Basin we haven't had a true drought since 2002. By true drought I mean from a hydrological standpoint. The last drought warning / emergency ended in NOV 2002. The highest weekly drought severity indexes for the NE back to 12/2000 were during the 2002 drought peaking on 3/12/2002 with an index of 228. For a frame of reference the fall 2016 dry period peaked at 161, fall 2020 at 131 & the summer 2023 dry period topped off at 107.

Since 2002 dry periods have been rare & when they happen they don't have a long shelf life.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

For the Delaware River Basin we haven't had a true drought since 2002. By true drought I mean from a hydrological standpoint. The last drought warning / emergency ended in NOV 2002. The highest weekly drought severity indexes for the NE back to 12/2000 were during the 2002 drought peaking on 3/12/2002 with an index of 228. For a frame of reference the fall 2016 dry period peaked at 161, fall 2020 at 131 & the summer 2023 dry period topped off at 107.

Since 2002 dry periods have been rare & when they happen they don't have a long shelf life.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

yeah the drought I'm refering to in summer 2022 was more of a "flash drought"  bone dry for about 3 months before the wet pattern returned-it was very dry though-lawns was toast and even some leaves on trees died...we had something like a half inch of rain in July which combined with the strong sun really dried things out

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

For the Delaware River Basin we haven't had a true drought since 2002. By true drought I mean from a hydrological standpoint. The last drought warning / emergency ended in NOV 2002. The highest weekly drought severity indexes for the NE back to 12/2000 were during the 2002 drought peaking on 3/12/2002 with an index of 228. For a frame of reference the fall 2016 dry period peaked at 161, fall 2020 at 131 & the summer 2023 dry period topped off at 107.

Since 2002 dry periods have been rare & when they happen they don't have a long shelf life.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

It’s hard to believe that the last true drought emergency we had in the metro area was over 22 years ago (2002). The drought/wet cycles don’t normally run this long 

[IrishRob17]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah the drought I'm refering to in summer 2022 was more of a "flash drought"  bone dry for about 3 months before the wet pattern returned-it was very dry though-lawns was toast and even some leaves on trees died...we had something like a half inch of rain in July which combined with the strong sun really dried things out

I remember it, I recorded 5.34" for June, July, August which honestly is more than I would've thought with how dry everything was in July and August 2022.  Lately we get 5" every couple of weeks.

[JetsPens87]

3 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Welcome to Middlesex county!! Looking forward to your obs during swfe next winter 

Thanks! I'll certainly have the station setup by then.

I've bounced around this whole darn state. Born and a few years in Hillsborough. Moved and grew up in Raritan Township (was there for 96). Then to East Amwell (where I spent most of my childhood and teen years and where my heart will always be). Then to Flemington. Then once I met my now wife we moved up to Phillipsburg (the arctic). Then to Howell for a few years when we started our family. Now we've settled in Monroe and the thought of any more moving makes me ill hah! All those moves and haven't gotten out of NJ.

Not entirely upset though, it's an amazing state.

[donsutherland1]

A snowstorm is raging in parts of northern New England. Snowfall amounts include:

Bangor: 8.1" (old record: 6.0", 2007)
Burlington: 8.8" (old record: 2.7", 2004)
Concord: 6.7"
Portland: 6.4" (tied record set in 1915)
Worcester: 5.5"

Following the damaging storm that brought sustained winds as high as 49 mph to the New York City area, sunshine returned and the temperature rose into the 50s.

The next few days will feature readings in the 50s. After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week of the month.

New York City's Central Park remains on track to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -12.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.161 today.

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s NAO is -2.00, which is the most negative of any day Feb 15th through April 7th for the years 1950-present. The old record for that period was -1.84. Also, there have been record daily -NAOs the last five days:
 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.gefs.z500.120days.csv

 

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record  with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase. 

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A snowstorm is raging in parts of northern New England. Snowfall amounts include:

Bangor: 8.1" (old record: 6.0", 2007)
Burlington: 8.8" (old record: 2.7", 2004)
Concord: 6.7"
Portland: 6.4" (tied record set in 1915)
Worcester: 5.5"

Following the damaging storm that brought sustained winds as high as 49 mph to the New York City area, sunshine returned and the temperature rose into the 50s.

The next few days will feature readings in the 50s. After a cool first week of April, it will likely turn noticeably warmer during the second week of the month.

New York City's Central Park remains on track to finish the 2023-2024 snow season with less than 10" of seasonal snowfall for a record second consecutive season. Records go back to 1869.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around March 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.27°C. The ongoing basinwide El Niño event is fading. Neutral conditions could develop later in the spring.

The SOI was -12.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.161 today.

 

Don, Lee Goldberg showed a list of wind reports and the highest were up around 70 mph-- 68 mph at a few locations!

and up to 4" of rain!

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Highly amplified pattern with 3 separate 500 mb heights records. In addition to the 500 mb height record  with the -NAO, record 500mb heights and surface high pressure were recorded west of Hawaii. Then the record low pressure for this time of year at 500 mb around Chicago. So it’s no wonder the pattern has been so wet. Looks like we reload again in about a week as the northern and southern streams attempt to phase. 

 

what happened to our warm April lol

[Allsnow]

@bluewave

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It’s hard to believe that the last true drought emergency we had in the metro area was over 22 years ago (2002). The drought/wet cycles don’t normally run this long 

that was a wonderful summer

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

yeah the drought I'm refering to in summer 2022 was more of a "flash drought"  bone dry for about 3 months before the wet pattern returned-it was very dry though-lawns was toast and even some leaves on trees died...we had something like a half inch of rain in July which combined with the strong sun really dried things out

that was one of my favorite summers of all time

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, BucksCO_PA said:

For the Delaware River Basin we haven't had a true drought since 2002. By true drought I mean from a hydrological standpoint. The last drought warning / emergency ended in NOV 2002. The highest weekly drought severity indexes for the NE back to 12/2000 were during the 2002 drought peaking on 3/12/2002 with an index of 228. For a frame of reference the fall 2016 dry period peaked at 161, fall 2020 at 131 & the summer 2023 dry period topped off at 107.

Since 2002 dry periods have been rare & when they happen they don't have a long shelf life.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx

wonderful memories of a great summer

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@bluewave

At least back in 2011 we knew we were f***ed once that huge Bering Sea vortex showed up a few days after Thanksgiving. It became a semi-permanent feature that winter and the +EPO floodgates were wide open from the end of November right through the beginning of April

[bluewave]

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what happened to our warm April lol

If you want to see a warmer forecast actually verify cooler than forecast these days just amp up the moisture, clouds, and onshore flow. That was the only reason that the heat was muted so much last summer. We generally need very moist patterns these days in order to avoid record heat. 

EPS April 8-15

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[SnoSki14]

All this rain with an extremely active hurricane season on the horizon...buckle up

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

that was a wonderful summer

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

[nycwinter]

look forward to another possible soaker late next week....

[nycwinter]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

unlikely with the ocean nearby

[LibertyBell]

42 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We would easily hit 110° if we ever got a repeat of a drought like the early 2000s in this much warmer climate. 

I don't take "droughts" in our part of the country very seriously, because we get way above normal rainfall every year.  And 70 percent of the planet is covered by water.

 

[JetsPens87]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

Not at all 

[JetsPens87]

26 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

unlikely with the ocean nearby

With a W or SW wind (the highest probability of major heat) how is the ocean to our E affecting that airmass?

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, JetsPens87 said:

With a W or SW wind (the highest probability of major heat) how is the ocean to our E affecting that airmass?

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

[Dan76]

SW wind is off the ocean for Staten island east.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

For NYC proper, they are close enough to the ocean for Seabreeze cooling effects.  When land heats up, it rises. The "missing" air at the surface has to be replaced.  If you are close enough to the ocean, cooler air along the surface will rush in.  Morristown NJ may be far enough west not to be affected by an afternoon sea breeze.

With a W/NW down sloping wind the coast is warmer than inland. Happens all the time…with a decent westerly the sea breeze isn’t a factor…in these setups JFK and LI go 100+.
 

i believe one of the barrier islands hit 108 on an offshore flow about 15 years ago. @bluewavecan confirm 

[Dan76]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

With a W/NW down sloping wind the coast is warmer than inland. Happens all the time…with a decent westerly the sea breeze isn’t a factor…in these setups JFK and LI go 100+.
 

i believe one of the barrier islands hit 108 on an offshore flow about 15 years ago. @bluewavecan confirm 

 

When was the last time you cracked 100.

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

 

When was the last time you cracked 100.

I want to say 2010 or so was when we had that blast of 100+ where Gilgo beach hit 108. Point remains, an offshore flow negates the impact of the ocean. 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.30" of rain for the day.

Final storm total 3.34"