JetsPens87 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: We have a strong inversion and cold temps, what am I missing The low level jet underneath the inversion. And...cold temps? Not sure where that comes into play honestly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: I sure has, way worse than the GFS. I still can’t believe some mets actually ran with it and its bogus projections for this week Never entertained it once 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter Unreal. Even here I had two 6 inches snowfalls in each of the last 2 horrid winters 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Those CMC runs that showed the fantasy snow over NY metro had the primary as far E as Cleveland. It's winding up over Green Bay. This was recognizable with the models keying in on a stronger WAR (as they had all season long). That primary had no route to come further E at that point...and that's not a recipe for snow around here in January let alone April. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Areas near the shore could see gusts near 60 mph since there is a 50KT flag just beneath the inversion. These winds are already happening. I recently recorded a gust to 42 mph at my station at Cherry Grove. A nearby station has recently recorded a gust to 50 mph. I have no doubt that there will be gusts over 60 mph along the barrier beaches and would not rule out gusts to near hurricane force with this event. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, JetsPens87 said: Those CMC runs that showed the fantasy snow over NY metro had the primary as far E as Cleveland. It's winding up over Green Bay. This was recognizable with the models keying in on a stronger WAR (as they had all season long). That primary had no route to come further E at that point...and that's not a recipe for snow around here in January let alone April. Yep. The CMC 10:1 ratio “snow” maps from Tropical Tidbits that were getting shared and hyped for the simple reason that they showed snow were laughable. They had zero support from any other global or mesoscale model from the word go but people ran with them anyway….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing Even in downtown Marquette. It's snowing there but not as heavy as forecasted . Areas to the north of their is still going got get blasted . Over here , this is a NNE snowstorm. Some model runs were way too cold for areas near the lakes and way interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 38 minutes ago, snowman19 said: As expected….massive fail incoming for the CMC suite with the snow fantasies it kept insisting on, run after run. Embarrassing Some people are holding on faith in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, MJO812 said: Some people on holding on faith in SNE. Haha…. many in that forum are in denial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Boston will be pushing 3 years on its last snowfall of 4 inches or more next winter Central Park also 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Unreal. Even here I had two 6 inches snowfalls in each of the last 2 horrid winters I had an 8 inch surprise snowstorm in February. 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. The CMC 10:1 ratio “snow” maps from Tropical Tidbits that were getting shared and hyped for the simple reason that they showed snow were laughable. They had zero support from any other global or mesoscale model from the word go but people ran with them anyway….. And yet some people are still using 10:1 for this upcoming event . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha…. many in that forum are in denial Snow depth maps are awful for them . 10 :1 is slightly better but this isn't 10:1 until you get to NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha…. many in that forum are in denial you would think some would learn-a ratter winter is a ratter winter...what can go wrong will. And where's the cold air? there's zero cold except way north and at elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: you would think some would learn-a ratter winter is a ratter winter...what can go wrong will. And where's the cold air? there's zero cold except way north and at elevation. They are depending on the coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Unreal. Even here I had two 6 inches snowfalls in each of the last 2 horrid winters Looking pretty likely Boston ends under 10” for the winter which is absolute basement level disaster. Even I had 15.5” this season. If you take the last 4 winters from 20-21 on it’s been about as good here on the LI N Shore as it’s been there-and of course the last 2 winters have been complete trash. 21-22 was better there but 20-21 better here. Looking quite dicey on the coastal flood threat tomorrow AM, major flood predicted in Freeport and moderate to major almost everywhere else on the S Shore bays. That plus maybe 2” more rain will means lots more flooding everywhere. Power might be out/trees down as well if these 60 mph gusts happen on saturated ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 goddamn that is a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow depth maps are awful for them . 10 :1 is slightly better but this isn't 10:1 until you get to NNE. It’s amazing how that area has been so screwed the past couple of winters. Many 10:1 model runs calling for 6”+ for the Boston area for this event and now it looks like mainly sleet / rain unless you’re near the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looking pretty likely Boston ends under 10” for the winter which is absolute basement level disaster. Even I had 15.5” this season. If you take the last 4 winters from 20-21 on it’s been about as good here on the LI N Shore as it’s been there-and of course the last 2 winters have been complete trash. 21-22 was better there but 20-21 better here. Looking quite dicey on the coastal flood threat tomorrow AM, major flood predicted in Freeport and moderate to major almost everywhere else on the S Shore bays. That plus maybe 2” more rain will means lots more flooding everywhere. Power might be out/trees down as well if these 60 mph gusts happen on saturated ground. I have had 25” for this season so it’s a C+ for me. Been a tough season for a lot of places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 7 minutes ago, Tatamy said: It’s amazing how that area has been so screwed the past couple of winters. Many 10:1 model runs calling for 6”+ for the Boston area for this event and now it looks like mainly sleet unless you’re near the NH border. The southeast ridge keeps screwing areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The southeast ridge keeps screwing areas. If it’s getting to the point now where SE ridges will regularly link up with the -NAO which negates the benefit of blocking episodes, we’re in big trouble and probably SNE too. Not sure if there have been historical periods where this happened. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If it’s getting to the point now where SE ridges will regularly link up with the -NAO which negates the benefit of blocking episodes, we’re in big trouble and probably SNE too. Not sure if there have been historical periods where this happened. Agreed. You either need to be near a lake or extreme NNE to get good winters now. Boston,bdl and orh will continue to see mild/snowless winters 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Agreed. You either need to be near a lake or extreme NNE to get good winters now. Boston,bdl and orh will continue to see mild/snowless winters If that's truly the case many ski places will go under....I'm talking Poconos SE NY CT MA not VT NH ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: If that's truly the case many ski places will go under....I'm talking Poconos SE NY CT MA not VT NH ME West is best… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 3 Author Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Tatamy said: These winds are already happening. I recently recorded a gust to 42 mph at my station at Cherry Grove. A nearby station has recently recorded a gust to 50 mph. I have no doubt that there will be gusts over 60 mph along the barrier beaches and would not rule out gusts to near hurricane force with this event. Jones Beach already gusting close to 50 mph ahead of the strongest winds expected later today into the evening. Jones Beach E37G48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Two day event total here is 1.86". Periods of rain ongoing. Cold and windy as well. Temperature was 37 at 7:30 a.m. and is only 39 currently. Ground is sodden again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 KDIX just popped on. Hopefully it stays! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 3 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: KDIX just popped on. Hopefully it stays! i think it’s broken all i see is yellow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: you would think some would learn-a ratter winter is a ratter winter...what can go wrong will. And where's the cold air? there's zero cold except way north and at elevation. The only one (besides people who aren’t mets) who was hyping an I-95 corridor snowstorm for this week was JB. He was also suggesting that April, 1982 was a good match. Not surprising coming from him though. He’s been completely off the rails since November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, snowman19 said: The only one (besides people who aren’t mets) who was hyping an I-95 corridor snowstorm for this week was JB. He was also suggesting that April, 1982 was a good match. Not surprising coming from him though. He’s been completely off the rails since November I think he's been off the rails longer than that, but that's for an entirely different thread IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, uofmiami said: I think he's been off the rails longer than that, but that's for an entirely different thread IMO. It took basic pattern recognition to realize that this was never a storm in terms of snow for us, and would be dicey in SNE but a fairly small shift would’ve kept it interesting along I-90. There’s as usual no preexisting cold to speak of, it’s another storm packed with moisture and the SE ridge is trying to make it cut as much as it can. Even if there’s a NAO block, we’re in trouble with the mega SE ridge. And oh by the way, it’s April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 3 Share Posted April 3 Just now, jm1220 said: It took basic pattern recognition to realize that this was never a storm in terms of snow for us, and would be dicey in SNE but a fairly small shift would’ve kept it interesting along I-90. There’s as usual no preexisting cold to speak of, it’s another storm packed with moisture and the SE ridge is trying to make it cut as much as it can. Even if there’s a NAO block, we’re in trouble with the mega SE ridge. And oh by the way, it’s April. The winds will be the most interesting element of this one. I would add rain but we've had a dozen 2 inch rain events since last summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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