Allsnow Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 3 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: It's time to stop lol Look how warm it is for sne…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stop what ? I said if the low was bombing further south and east. Even if it did its white rain. Just because it bombs further south and east doesn't automatically mean snow here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Look how warm it is for sne…. Yup. Nam has quite a strong mid and lower level warm push. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 Yup. Nam has quite a strong mid and lower level warm push.Good luck getting snow in April with those mid-level temps and thicknesses. People need to let it go. It’s been game over for the metro area since 2/17. Thank God this is coming: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 i went to a doctors appointment this morning and it was a joy for me to see everyone dressed like it was midwinter. everyone was wearing a winter coat and wearing a winter hat... 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 Stormy day for Jersey especially south tomorrow on the nam. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 59 minutes ago, bluewave said: While we already knew this, it’s good to see the figures. My guess this is related to the long range Euro inability to see the stronger MJO 4-7 influence. The lower skill shows the competing influences of these marine heatwaves made the stock El Niño forecast less likely compared to previous El Niños. That's probably why the weeklies were so bad-they just went to the climo el nino forecast after week 2 every single run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Stop what ? I said if the low was bombing further south and east. It would not matter-there's NO COLD AIR 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2024 Author Share Posted April 2, 2024 7 minutes ago, Big Jims Videos said: Stormy day for Jersey especially south tomorrow on the nam. Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Coastal sections could see an impressive wind event from the east as the models have a tighter gradient now. This is in top of the heavy rain potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 32 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Even if it did its white rain. Just because it bombs further south and east doesn't automatically mean snow here. We play this game every storm with him. He either doesn't learn or doesn't want to learn.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: It would not matter-there's NO COLD AIR The only sub freezing temps are the peaks of the Greens Whites and Daks. The NAM is also quite good at scouring out mid level warm pushes...its having some even in NNE sweating bullets looking at 700mb layer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, very strong winds just above the deck along the Jersey Shore. Quite a strong inversion though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 2 hours ago, bluewave said: As of now we are looking pretty good. https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=nbm&p=qpf_012h_tle_4-prob0005&r=conus Looks better here than in Central and Western NY looking at those maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 19 minutes ago, nycwinter said: i went to a doctors appointment this morning and it was a joy for me to see everyone dressed like it was midwinter. everyone was wearing a winter coat and wearing a winter hat... you sound like such a cheerful person Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 34 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Good luck getting snow in April with those mid-level temps and thicknesses. People need to let it go. It’s been game over for the metro area since 2/17. Thank God this is coming: isn't there another cut off coming the following weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: It would not matter-there's NO COLD AIR is it still apr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 55 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: It's time to stop lol Next thing you know he'll be saying this even in the middle of summer if we somehow get a coastal that takes a south and east track lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Next thing you know he'll be saying this even in the middle of summer if we somehow get a coastal that takes a south and east track lol I know my limits 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2024 Author Share Posted April 2, 2024 11 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Quite a strong inversion though... It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL I guess anything’s possible. It’s possible something sprang 1000 Loch Ness Monsters that will storm Battery Park tomorrow. That’s about as possible as seeing any snow from this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 A little surprised there’s no Flood Watch given the high water tables. Some models have 3”+ from this storm. Looks like another soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: A little surprised there’s no Flood Watch given the high water tables. Some models have 3”+ from this storm. Looks like another soaker. Rainfall rates not high enough for them to issue one I assume. I'm sure we'll see a flood advisory issued with all the runoff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s an unusual sounding for this area since we usually doesn’t see an inversion with such a strong easterly jet below the inversion level with this much MUCAPE. So what does this imply? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 Marquette Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 2, 2024 Author Share Posted April 2, 2024 32 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So what does this imply? That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 Moderate to heavy rain here currently and 42 degrees. Pretty nasty out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: That the potential is there for winds to beat expectations. Agreed. The Erly jet is sitting just below that inversion. With the ever increasing convective look we will have to pay attention to how much can we pulled down. I wasn't (and still not entirely) thrilled about the wind potential but like you said despite that inversion there is a jet sitting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted April 2, 2024 Share Posted April 2, 2024 Tomorrow looks like the worst weather day until next fall. Low 40s, wind and rain. Then we step up and out into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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