April 8, 2024 Eclipse

[KChuck]

18 hours ago, bdgwx said:

Speaking of the cloud thinning effect...here is a very recent study both from an observational and modeling perspective regarding the topic. [Trees et al. 2024]

Here is the HRRR simulation from the 2017 eclipse. Notice the shortwave driven clouds build just before onset of the eclipse and then wane rapidly as totality approaches. Then after totality passes shortwave driven clouds explode aggressively as the surface warming is reinstated. The bootheel of Missouri is an example of this. I was down there in 2017 and can corroborate the fact that there was a significant reduction in clouds in the 30 minutes leading up to totality.

 

I can vouch to the effect. Wife and I went to Greenville, SC where my daughter lives for our first total eclipse. I remember telling my wife that it wouldn't be too bad with the scattered clouds, that we should get a peak at totality. Went to the car for something about fifteen minutes before totality and on the way back to our site I looked up to see not a cloud in the sky. It was like God took his hand and swiped the sky clean. I watched the video that Bob Jones made of the event the other night and was still moved to tears thinking about the event.

https://www.bju.edu/eclipse/

[so_whats_happening]

On 3/27/2024 at 9:55 PM, KChuck said:

I've been following the weather closer the last week. I've got a reservation in Medina, NY area from the 6th leaving back for home on the 10th. Going to overnight in Lancaster, Pa on the way up from North Carolina. Waiting a day to start out for home after the eclipse. Learned my lesson in 2017 when traffic from Greenville, SC was downright atrocious. It took us around 12 hours to make a 3½ hour trip due to a jack-knifed semi. My wife's nerves were shot, mine not much better. Tried to find a hotel to escape the Interstate and overnight in but they were all booked. Wound up going all of the way home. Medina does not appear likely to be in a congested area as far as I can tell as it appears to be relatively rural. I'll feel somewhat comfortable doing a short chase if necessary. Don't want to get in crowds as wife has an autoimmune disease. If it looks like a front will come thru a few days before and wash out the eclipse I can cancel and get my reservation deposit back. Our reservation is about dead center in the track, so we won't have to travel anywhere if the weather cooperates. I'm using the following link to keep up with forecasts from one link.

https://eclipsophile.com/eclipse-day-weather/

Have fun in Lancaster!

On 3/29/2024 at 1:03 PM, eyewall said:

yeah I am supposed to go to Texas for it. I am definitely nervous.

Yea Im actually getting a little nervous about TX right now.  ULL ejecting out of the SW with return flow setting up a day or two before. It would be cool to experience the cumulus towers beforehand and they all but disappear with the eclipse to come back as the sun starts to shine again. Ill be in Austin area during the time and can move around as we get closer to get a better idea of how things will fall out.

[Ridingtime]

I am flying in from Jerusalem, Israel to TX to see this (where I am from originally) so to say that I am invested in this is an understatement. Latest GEFS run is giving me some hope:

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, Ridingtime said:

I am flying in from Jerusalem, Israel to TX to see this (where I am from originally) so to say that I am invested in this is an understatement. Latest GEFS run is giving me some hope:

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following...

"Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday.

While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

[Ridingtime]

17 minutes ago, KChuck said:

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following...

"Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday.

While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

Oh crap, you’re right

Gah, I totally read it wrong. Ok *deep breath*…. it’s still 8 days out, hopefully this is enough time for things to change 

[KChuck]

37 minutes ago, Ridingtime said:

Oh crap, you’re right

Gah, I totally read it wrong. Ok *deep breath*…. it’s still 8 days out, hopefully this is enough time for things to change 

Yep. The thing that I've been worried about since I made my eclipse reservations back last November was a big weather system event. Often when a block breaks down something like this happens. But hey... it's the weather. In two days it will change, right?

[baltosquid]

Use the downward solar radiation plot for the GEFS/GFS - it's available on Tomer's site! Tomer Burg uses that to address the GFS and its ensembles having a huge cloud bias. Just compare the GFS and CMC 24 hours out on pivotal on the cloud map, or the GEFS vs GEPS... GFS/GEFS is crazy. Now, for Texas right now that's little comfort as it does not improve the picture much. But much of the path fares better.

[bdgwx]

1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

Use the downward solar radiation plot for the GEFS/GFS - it's available on Tomer's site! Tomer Burg uses that to address the GFS and its ensembles having a huge cloud bias. Just compare the GFS and CMC 24 hours out on pivotal on the cloud map, or the GEFS vs GEPS... GFS/GEFS is crazy. Now, for Texas right now that's little comfort as it does not improve the picture much. But much of the path fares better.

I was not able to find the downward solar radiation plot. Can you post a link or an brief description of how to get it?

[baltosquid]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I was not able to find the downward solar radiation plot. Can you post a link or an brief description of how to get it?

2024 Eclipse Forecasts (ou.edu)

If you go to "Ensemble Forecasts" here, GEFS and EPS have the Downward Shortwave (solar was my mistake) Radiation plots. The GEFS has it because its cloud plot is extremely overdone, and the EPS has it because it does not have a dedicated cloud product otherwise.

Tomer Burg goes into how and why he did it here in this thread:
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1774231279523021285?s=20

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, Ridingtime said:

I am flying in from Jerusalem, Israel to TX to see this (where I am from originally) so to say that I am invested in this is an understatement. Latest GEFS run is giving me some hope:

TWC is showing both GFS and Euro cloud forecasts, I didn't even know the Euro had a cloud forecast, I certainly can't find it on pivotalweather.

 

[bdgwx]

9 hours ago, baltosquid said:

2024 Eclipse Forecasts (ou.edu)

If you go to "Ensemble Forecasts" here, GEFS and EPS have the Downward Shortwave (solar was my mistake) Radiation plots. The GEFS has it because its cloud plot is extremely overdone, and the EPS has it because it does not have a dedicated cloud product otherwise.

Tomer Burg goes into how and why he did it here in this thread:
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1774231279523021285?s=20

Oh yeah duh. How'd I miss that. That's a better way to do it. I've been using that technique too with the NBM. If you go here you'll get the text output from the NBM which includes both the SKY and SOL parameters. For the NBE product SOL is the mean solar irradiance over a 12 hour period. For example, KCGI (Cape Girardeau, MO) has 39% coverage with 460 W/m2 while KIND (Indianapolis, IN) has 38% coverage with only 260 W/m2. Since both are roughly at the same latitude (close enough) that means that even though have nearly identical cloud coverage the optical depths are higher at KIND. At this latitude we expect about an average of about 600 W/m2 in completely clear skies from 12Z to 0Z on April 8th. 

BTW...I believe this technique works on April 8th because the global models are not simulating the eclipse. The actual solar irradiance on April 8th will be much lower even under clear skies (obviously). The only model I'm aware of that simulates eclipses is the HRRR (and I presume its successor RRFS). The only place I know of to get modeled solar irradiance data is the ESRL site. Unfortunately its FV3 equivalent has not been pulling the "downward shortwave flux" product for the GFS in awhile.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, KChuck said:

Um, if I'm reading this correctly, hope is fleeting for the whole US eclipse corridor with the exception of upper tier New York. The darker the color the better chance for clouds. Both the Canadian and American 10 day models, which I've been following for almost the past week, flipped and are now showing better than 50% cloud cover for the area that I'm focused on... western New York. Buffalo NWS stretched out their 7 day disco with the following...

"Mainly dry weather will return late Friday night and remain in place through the upcoming weekend as a stout omega blocking pattern looks to set up across the Lower 48, with deep troughing lingering off the East Coast and western CONUS and a stout ridge over the Midwest and Great Lakes. This will also bring about a strong warming trend to the forecast area into next week, with seasonable temps Saturday warming to above normal by Sunday.

While beyond our normal 7-day forecast...The highly anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. FAR too early to give any semblance of an accurate sky cover forecast at this point, though cloud cover on Monday will likely hinge on how quickly the aforementioned omega blocking pattern begins to break down early next week."

This is from Pivotal Weather.  They say that the Canadian Emsemble is the most accurate for cloud cover forecasting, so that can be selected from this page.  NWS blend of models seems to favor the Canadian too, as the GFS Ensemble has a forecast for more cloud cover than the blend does.

 

I selected New York for my state, but any state or the entire CONUS can be selected on this page.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=gefsens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny

 

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=gefsens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, baltosquid said:

2024 Eclipse Forecasts (ou.edu)

If you go to "Ensemble Forecasts" here, GEFS and EPS have the Downward Shortwave (solar was my mistake) Radiation plots. The GEFS has it because its cloud plot is extremely overdone, and the EPS has it because it does not have a dedicated cloud product otherwise.

Tomer Burg goes into how and why he did it here in this thread:
https://x.com/burgwx/status/1774231279523021285?s=20

Pivotal also mentions that the Canadian is the most accurate for cloud cover predictions, but I find it --REALLY-- hard to believe that cloud cover up here will only be 5-10%.  That almost never happens in April.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/eclipse2024/?m=cmceens&p=cloudcover_tle_4-mean&r=us_state_ny

 

The Canadian ensemble (CMCE) runs twice daily, with new maps typically available by 4:00 AM and PM EDT (1:00 PDT). Its forecasts for cloud cover are the most nuanced and realistic available on this page.

 

The American ensemble (NCEP GEFS) runs four times daily, with new maps available every 6 hours. Its forecasts for cloud cover can tend to overestimate coverage where the sky will only be partly cloudy, while its precipitation forecasts are realistic and useful.

 

 

[KChuck]

Updated Buffalo NWS disco for eclipse day...

 

"While beyond our normal 7-day forecast... The highly anticipated 2024  Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model  and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday  with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes  and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud  cover with any confidence or reliability."

[nrgjeff]

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below)

Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.)

Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd
Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter
Gotta read up to get pumped up!

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, KChuck said:

Updated Buffalo NWS disco for eclipse day...

 

"While beyond our normal 7-day forecast... The highly anticipated 2024  Solar Eclipse will occur Monday, April 8th in the afternoon. Model  and ensemble guidance continue to suggest dry weather for Monday  with high pressure surface and aloft over the eastern Great Lakes  and Ohio Valley, however it is FAR too early to forecast cloud  cover with any confidence or reliability."

In this case deeper blue means more clear skies? So this is the complete opposite of the other chart, where deeper blue meant cloudy skies lol.

So basically, the further east you go the clearer the skies get?

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below)

Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.)

Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd
Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter
Gotta read up to get pumped up!

Thanks Jeff, I just found it so interesting that the eclipse path looks so similar to the path the May 10, 1994 eclipse took, down to the same percentage of solar coverage here in NYC.

[wiivile]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

 

 

As we get closer to April 8, is there any way to tell by cloud cover maps where clouds will be high (less threatening) vs low (more threatening)?

[Ridingtime]

2 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

On clouds @Winter Wizard is correct the Globals over-estimate cloud cover. Using something like downward solar flux might offer a better approximation than straight cloud forecast - the latter shows any little/thin clouds. Solar flux captures our odds a little better, with understanding we need nearly clear. Cloud cover is unwelcome, but certain types are not the end of the world (esp if you have seen a clear TSE or will have another chance). As @bdgwx wrote some clouds tend to dissipate - especially convective / fair wx Cu.

Unfortunately, the benefit does not apply to mid-high clouds as well. Cooling at the surface kills Cu but not mid-high clouds. While I would always try for clear skies, a thin veil of cirrus is not a total loss. I read that one can see the sharp moon shadow approach on those clouds. Clear is the eerie/majestic darkening curtain. Thin high clouds will show a sharp edge like a cheap B movie shows flying saucers take over. I've never seen it; I don't intend to see it; but, it sounds modestly interesting. Clear skies are absolutely my target. (can't find online source again)

Low clouds is indeed the severe catastrophe of eclipse chasing. One of two bad things happens. Thin low clouds just scatter the light (from the white tops) and mute/destroy the shadow under the moon. Thick overcast is already dark, also scatters light, and only shows a subtle dimming at totality. Absolutely avoid low clouds. (source 1 below)

Eclipses come in series called a Saros. @LibertyBell asked about return time. A saros repeats every 18 years, but it's a third of the way around the Earch. In 54 years it returns approximately to the same place, but a little farther west. This 2024 eclipse is the same saros that brought the East Coast an eclipse in 1970. Our 2017 was from a different saros. The good news is several of these saros/series is going. Earth gets an eclipse every few years somewhere. (Source 2 below)

Finally @Ridingtime welcome back to the States for this! Do you have a car, chase partners, or otherwise ability to move? Ohio Valley to Northeast US might not bust, but it's still a week out. This is the 06Z GFS, the most optimistic of the 3 today. Valid time is past Totality, but the 18Z presentation is messy due to lower sun-angle. (I guess the chart integrates previous 3 hours. Because 18Z sun angle is higher than 21Z, but they present more W/m2 at 21Z and a cleaner chart.)

Source/Book 1: Total Solar Eclipses of the Sun by Mabele Loomis Todd
Source/Book 2: The Sun's Heartbeat by Bob Berman, Eclipse chapter
Gotta read up to get pumped up!

Thanks Jeff! So it will just be me and my 12 year old daughter - will be renting a car from DFW and should be mostly mobile around TX. We arrive the Thurs before, stay the weekend in Dallas, was then planning on stopping through Waco where I was born to revisit my oldest roots, and then head down to Austin Sun night to stay by my Aunt. In the morning, the hope is that we then all can head a bit west together toward a location more ideal within the path of totality. But now...

I don't know what to do. I have a brother in law who owns a lake house in the Adirondack mountains by Tupper Lake up in north NY, which is currently in a location that seems most ideal for sun and in the path of totality. Should I reroute everything and go up there? Should I miss out on seeing my home town, visiting family that I am closer to - all to head north for a solar eclipse? Or maybe there will be SOME part of TX somewhere along the totality line that will have sun and I'll somehow just chase that? Gah, the whole thing is maddening right now - and the only comfort I can take is that we are still a ways out and things can change. What would any of you say regarding the chances for the chances for changes at this point? Help a flustered guy out here lol

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

In this case deeper blue means more clear skies? So this is the complete opposite of the other chart, where deeper blue meant cloudy skies lol.

So basically, the further east you go the clearer the skies get?

Yes. In this model visual you want more blue. I'm set up for the Medina NY area. My take is that I'm looking at high cirrus. As you said, graphics are implying that you get better odds the further east that you go in New York. I've got my fingers crossed. I'm relying at this point on the Buffalo NWS for me. I'm willing to scurry to catch a better view, but with a forecast of 2.5 million people in the western New York area I have to wonder how many of those will have the same idea. I'm not willing to get into the middle of an Interstate parking lot again after my experiences post 2017 eclipse.

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, wiivile said:

As we get closer to April 8, is there any way to tell by cloud cover maps where clouds will be high (less threatening) vs low (more threatening)?

If you go to https://spotwx.com and enter your location you will be presented with a listing of model site links. Go down and click on the 10 day GFS link. This will present you with a forecast of high, mid and low level clouds. This is the model that is in play this far out from the eclipse. You can also view the 10 day Canadian GDPS. This is the current 10 day GFS for Medina, NY. I added another screen shot as I forgot to change units.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 minutes ago, KChuck said:

If you go to https://spotwx.com and enter your location you will be presented with a listing of model site links. Go down and click on the 10 day GFS link. This will present you with a forecast of high, mid and low level clouds. This is the model that is in play this far out from the eclipse. You can also view the 10 day Canadian GDPS. This is the current 10 day GFS for Medina, NY.

 

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

 

wow nice-- I just looked up Syracuse and this says 0% high 0% middle and 1% low clouds for Syracuse at 2 PM on Monday the 8th..... this seems just such an impossibly low number of clouds for early April for the northeast.

[wiivile]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

 

wow nice-- I just looked up Syracuse and this says 0% high 0% middle and 1% low clouds for Syracuse at 2 PM on Monday the 8th..... this seems just such an impossibly low number of clouds for early April for the northeast.

GFS (which apparently overestimates clouds) seems to think the entire track will have clouds except for northeast NY & VT... https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=cloudcover&rh=2024040112&fh=177

 

I doubt that will be the case, and of course it's far too early, but right now a week out the best forecasts among most models are northeast NY & VT.

[KChuck]

54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://spotwx.com/products/grib_index.php?model=gfs_pgrb2_0p25_f&lat=43.04795&lon=-76.14745&tz=America/New_York&label=Syracuse, New York

 

wow nice-- I just looked up Syracuse and this says 0% high 0% middle and 1% low clouds for Syracuse at 2 PM on Monday the 8th..... this seems just such an impossibly low number of clouds for early April for the northeast.

An earlier Buffalo NWS disco said that an omega block was keeping the area clear the prior weekend and that eclipse cloudiness would be dependent upon how fast that block breaks down.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, KChuck said:

An earlier Buffalo NWS disco said that an omega block was keeping the area clear the prior weekend and that eclipse cloudiness would be dependent upon how fast that block breaks down.

For those of us who will be going into IN/OH/PA/western NY (I, myself, will be visiting family in the Cleveland area for this)...hard to know what to root for.  That shortwave in the upper midwest seems to be problematic, from what I have been looking at of late?  Do we hope for that shortwave to either be weaker, or farther northwest (or both), such that the ridging through the Ohio Valley and east remains more intact?  It seems that wave is knocking down the ridging a bit more but I've only taken cursory glances at the models the past few days.

[etudiant]

I can only admire the faith of eclipse lovers who give credence to cloud forecasts a week out.

As is, there is still a weather pattern to digest this week. Once that is past, the models may have some credibility. Until then, not so much, at least imho.

[KChuck]

14 minutes ago, etudiant said:

I can only admire the faith of eclipse lovers who give credence to cloud forecasts a week out.

As is, there is still a weather pattern to digest this week. Once that is past, the models may have some credibility. Until then, not so much, at least imho.

Contingency plans must be laid out based on the best available prognosis ASAP. Also cancelations must be done early for the case of any washouts.

[KChuck]

Buffalo NWS 4:23pm disco...

"LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An omega blocking pattern will very gradually slide east across the  CONUS near end of this week and into early next week. Initially on  Friday, deep troughing in the form of a closed low will be located  over the Northeast to the eastern Great Lakes as well as west of the  Rocky Mountains, with a strong ridge of high pressure in the middle  over the central Plains. Unsettled weather will persist across the  forecast area though gradually wind down Friday through Saturday as  the eastern trough maintains a moist, cyclonic flow across the  region. 850H temps may initially be just cold enough around -8/-9C  for some lake enhancement Friday morning, though will likely warm a  few degrees through the day to effectively shut off this response.  This being said, will continue to nudge PoPs above NBM this period  as the continued influx of moisture and shortwave ripples aloft  should maintain at least some shower activity across the region.  Chances for precip will be highest across the higher terrain areas  east of Lake Erie and across the Finger Lakes where orographic lift  will be a factor. In regards to p-type, very marginal boundary layer  and sfc temps will support a mainly elevation-based mix of rain and  snow Friday through Saturday morning, though the strong early April  sun angle should limit the ability for any additional snowfall to  stick during the daytime hours.

The area should begin to dry out Saturday night as the closed low  over New England weakens and shifts out into the northwestern  Atlantic, and the ridge to the west builds east into the Great Lakes  region. As the attendant surface high moves over and eventually east  of the forecast area, clearer skies and warming temps will make  their way to the region by Sunday.

Now on the fringe of our routine forecast range, many eyes will be on Monday, when the path of totality for the highly  anticipated 2024 Solar Eclipse will cut through much of our  forecast area. Deterministic and ensemble model guidance are in  good agreement on the longwave pattern early next week, with the sensible weather across our area being dry and on the warmer  side, featuring high temperatures mainly in the 50s. At this  range however, uncertainty is very high in the amount of total  cloud cover and how it will be structured, especially across  western NY. Long-range guidance suggests increasing mid and/or  high clouds through the day, though whether or not these would  be dense enough to obscure any view of the eclipse cannot be  determined at this time. Stay tuned!"

[Spartman]

NWS IND
 

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Apr 1 2024

It is now about a week out from eclipse day and as stated in
previous iterations of this discussion, a few signals can be
deciphered from long range guidance.

As mentioned in the discussion above, a deepening/occluding low
pressure system is anticipated to develop over the eastern US. As
this low deepens, it should act to bottle up the upstream wave
pattern. This can be seen in guidance as a deepening trough over the
western US. It`s this trough that could be the determining factor as
to what kind of weather we see on Monday April 8th.

Taking a step back, global teleconnections show strongly negative
phases in both the NAO and AO. This means that the synoptic scale
will dictate our weather going forward, and with a very strong and
occluded low over the east coast...it is likely that the position
and longevity of this system will determine the evolution of the
west coast trough.

Latest ensemble guidance depicts both the eastern and western
troughs becoming highly amplified with an increasingly squeezed
ridge in between. A flow pattern similar to a classic omega block
looks to take shape by Friday. With strongly negative
teleconnections, a pattern featuring blocking is not a surprise.
Guidance begins to diverge over the weekend as models struggle to
depict how the aforementioned features interact within the bottled up
flow. Guidance typically struggles in blocking patterns, and can be
too fast with synoptic-scale features. This can be seen in recent
trends with today`s system that has been gradually shifting westward
with time.

It`s tough to downscale this pattern into a cloud cover forecast for
the 8th. The primary questions are how much does the occluded east
coast low affect the upstream pattern, and in what form the western
trough ejects eastward. As guidance comes into greater consensus,
the answers to these questions will likewise come into focus. Stay
tuned for further updates.

Might as well stick a fork in seeing the eclipse on Monday

[KChuck]

Anticipated map of fronts/pressures produced last night for 8am edt Monday morning. Write up from the WPC.

"Overview and Guidance/Predictability Assessment... 

Model guidance seems reasonably agreeable with the overall pattern through this forecast period as highlighted by formation and subsequent slow transition of a massive Omega style blocking pattern over the lower 48 and vicinity starting by later this week. The large scale features consist of an upper trough/closed low over the Northeast finally ejecting into the Atlantic early next week, another upper low tracking from the eastern Pacific into the West later this week pivoting into the north-central Plains early next week with ridging ahead of it, and additional energy digging into the West by next Sunday-Tuesday.  Forecast spread and uncertainty are generally below normal overall, but does increase into early next week with the ejection of system energies from the West to the Plains along with complex associated cyclo/fronto genesis transitions. Forecast spread is certainly within typical levels for the Days 6-7 period, but has implications for frontal positions (and cloud cover for the eclipse in the central to east- central U.S.)."