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Central Pa. Spring 2024


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Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...

AMENDED TO UPDATE FORECAST

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely from late Thursday afternoon into
Thursday night across parts of the central and southern Great
Plains. Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and strong tornadoes
will all be possible.

Guidance continues to suggest strong buoyancy will be in place ahead
of a negatively tilted shortwave trough ejecting across the southern
High Plains. General forecast expressed in the previous outlook
remains valid, but confidence in an area of greater severe-weather
potential has become more apparent with the most recent guidance.
Late afternoon development is anticipated across the TX Panhandle,
with these storms quickly becoming severe and capable of large to
very large hail up to 3" in diameter. Low-level moisture may be
later to arrive in west-central/southwest KS, delaying convective
initiation to a few hours later than farther south. Large to very
large hail is anticipated with initial development across
west-central/southwest KS as well.

In both of these areas, storms are expected to move
east-northeastward off the dryline, encountering strengthening
low-level southerly flow and environment that is increasingly
favorable for tornadoes. Low-level shear will continue to
strengthening into the early evening, and the overall environment
supports the potential for strong to intense tornadoes if a discrete
mode can be maintained.ca78e4154dc8df91d558ac6621f339a3.jpg

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49 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

I have to think them amending the forecast to scare the shit out of everyone combined with a 3 day enhanced risk is probably a big deal.

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Check it out this weekwnd for my parents near the TX/LA border. Signals for bad tornadoes there. 

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Next Monday, April 29, up here in Williamsport may be a record breaker as well. Right now Wunderground is calling for a high of 85. Historic high for the 29th is 86. 

I hate the yearly switch to when max highs are awful and you would give anything for some relief. We are not there yet but it is coming.

As for today, high was 70 and is now 68. I will close the open door soon. I have enjoyed the fresh air the higher temps have allowed me to bring into the house a few times recently. Many more open door and then open window days to come of course.

 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Officiating is horrible. I just love during every game when a player takes the ball to the cup, gets fouled, no whistle...until the ref sees if the ball goes through the net or not. Missed shot? Hey! Let's blow the whistle now. Basket good? Eat that whistle, baby...

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Turns out we have had a wildfire  statement up for a few hours. Seems strange after all the rain we had but of course it is what it is. 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-240000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...

A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity and windy
conditions this afternoon will create an elevated risk of wildfire
spread across much of Central Pennsylvania.

Minimum relative humidity values will range from 20 to 30 percent
accompanied by wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph from the south-
southwest.

 

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2 minutes ago, CoralRed said:

Turns out we have had a wildfire  statement up for a few hours. Seems strange after all the rain we had but of course it is what it is. 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-240000-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-
Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
315 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON...

A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity and windy
conditions this afternoon will create an elevated risk of wildfire
spread across much of Central Pennsylvania.

Minimum relative humidity values will range from 20 to 30 percent
accompanied by wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph from the south-
southwest.

 

It is very dry out especially with the wind and DP's.    If we miss out on rain tonight/tomorrow and Sat, the mowings will slow down real fast. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is very dry out especially with the wind and DP's.    If we miss out on rain tonight/tomorrow and Sat, the mowings will slow down real fast. 

1. I'll gladly take rain, especially at this time of the year (flower/plant/veggie season)

2. I'm ready for the grass to slow down. I'm working tonight but mow #8 needs to happen in the next day or two. 

3. #1 and #2 sort of contradict each other. LOL

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Check it out this weekwnd for my parents near the TX/LA border. Signals for bad tornadoes there. 
I'm buying it. I'm thinking they expect some long trackers on Thursday.

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45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1. I'll gladly take rain, especially at this time of the year (flower/plant/veggie season)

2. I'm ready for the grass to slow down. I'm working tonight but mow #8 needs to happen in the next day or two. 

3. #1 and #2 sort of contradict each other. LOL

It has only rained a little over 1" at MDT over the last 3 weeks.   Not D word but not wet either. 

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Near normal temps today before colder again through Saturday. We may see frost or freezes again by Friday morning. Big warm up on the way by Monday with temps possibly reaching the 80's for the first time in some areas.
Chester County records for today: High 91 degrees in West Chester (1960) / Low 26 degrees at Coatesville (1930) / Rain 2.40" in Coatesville (1968)
image.png.df12fa403dd3503ec6d3795d40ae53eb.png
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We will need 1 - 2 tropical systems this year I fear

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Or one Agnes, which I feel like we're probably due for.

I still am predicting a cat five landfall at Havre de Grace and y'all screwed.

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Or one Agnes, which I feel like we're probably due for.

I still am predicting a cat five landfall at Havre de Grace and y'all screwed.

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If that happens I'm attaching myself to two big parachutes that look like a butt cheek and going for a ride until the power lines get me.

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That was one of the most impressive strikes missed I’ve ever seen here in Harrisburg. It literally lifted at 81 and rained past 83. 
It poured in camp hill, plus a lightning strike down in shermanstown

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