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Central Pa. Spring 2024


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Some great weather over the next few days although with the winds today might be a bit tough on some allergy sufferers. Looks like shower chances return by Wednesday and could last through the rest of the week! Our wet year continues!
Chester County Records for today: High 91 degrees Phoenixville (1941) / Low 21 degrees West Chester (1940) / Rain 2.28" Coatesville (1970) / Snow 2.5" Coatesville (1923)
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1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:


 

 


Right. Tornado may drop on somebody today, but great weather coming, this.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

Threat for any damaging or tornadic stronger storms will be  near to north of I-80. The modeled line clearly weakens as it moves SE between I-80 and I-78. South of I-78 here in Chester County the storms or what's left of them will be showers at most.

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2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

How have the Euro extended weeklies been lately? Here's through May. 20240414_100724.jpg

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They performed absolutely horrifically this Winter at even 2 weeks out.

Most Winters they were somewhat reliable or at least got the general theme of the pattern right out to week 3 or 4, but they were completely wrong this year.

They have always been pretty unreliable at week 5 or 6 from what I’ve seen over the years.

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They performed absolutely horrifically this Winter at even 2 weeks out.
Most Winters they were somewhat reliable or at least got the general theme of the pattern right out to week 3 or 4, but they were completely wrong this year.
They have always been pretty unreliable at week 5 or 6 from what I’ve seen over the years.
We shall see. That's a pretty strong signal for plains severe along with NE/PA severe coming over the top

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2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Threat for any damaging or tornadic stronger storms will be  near to north of I-80. The modeled line clearly weakens as it moves SE between I-80 and I-78. South of I-78 here in Chester County the storms or what's left of them will be showers at most.

Our thread includes people who live in that area...

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From the forecaster's disco

This cold front will bring an Enhanced (3/5) Risk of severe weather across central PA this evening. Hi-res model guidance continues to suggest convection to develop along this cold front and continue tracking across central PA later this afternoon and throughout the evening hours. Initial thoughts are that a broken line of storms will begin to impact the northern tier closer to the 19-20Z (3pm-4pm) timeframe with marginally severe conditions at the onset with damaging winds being the main hazard across this area. As this cold front approaches the Interstate 80 corridor, it will move into an area with increased instability, becoming more favorable for severe thunderstorms in the 21-22Z (5p-6p) timeframe. Around this timeframe, clusters of broken storms may organize into a narrow squall line with some potential for discrete modes near the surface trough. In an environment with favorable shear parameters and steep lapse rates at the low- and mid- levels, a couple of tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled out as this complex begins moving further to the south this evening, especially along and west of the I-99 corridor. Further to the east, slightly less shear will limit this potential but there is a non-zero chance of a small, weak tornado.


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From the forecaster's disco

This cold front will bring an Enhanced (3/5) Risk of severe weather across central PA this evening. Hi-res model guidance continues to suggest convection to develop along this cold front and continue tracking across central PA later this afternoon and throughout the evening hours. Initial thoughts are that a broken line of storms will begin to impact the northern tier closer to the 19-20Z (3pm-4pm) timeframe with marginally severe conditions at the onset with damaging winds being the main hazard across this area. As this cold front approaches the Interstate 80 corridor, it will move into an area with increased instability, becoming more favorable for severe thunderstorms in the 21-22Z (5p-6p) timeframe. Around this timeframe, clusters of broken storms may organize into a narrow squall line with some potential for discrete modes near the surface trough. In an environment with favorable shear parameters and steep lapse rates at the low- and mid- levels, a couple of tornadoes and hail cannot be ruled out as this complex begins moving further to the south this evening, especially along and west of the I-99 corridor. Further to the east, slightly less shear will limit this potential but there is a non-zero chance of a small, weak tornado.


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Dew points seem a bit low vs other enhanced days

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Our thread includes people who live in that area...

Of course but not for the counties in the southern areas of the thread area...my thoughts were clearly all about Chester County PA as I very clearly always state!  I am not commenting for those folks further to the West or North of Chesco...and never do. The area covered by this thread is too large and variable to make a blanket statement which I don't.

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5:15p: Wind has picked up in Williamsport. Now W 28 G50. High was supposed to be 75 but went to 84. Dropped to 82 in last 15 minutes NWS noted air is drier than expected which may limit storms later. It has been a long time since we had big storms here and I have to admit I am not in the mood tonight for a lot of thunder and lightening. Enough Middle Eastern booms on the TV, for one thing. I saw on Twitter that Jordan took out about the same number of things we did. Good thing they came through.

Anyway, I just checked and storms that had been on border are now about ready to drop into second row of counties which includes  Lycoming. So whatever is coming will be here soon. Storm Warning just issued.

 

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