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Central Pa. Spring 2024


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By the looks of radar and meso's, we are not getting a lot more rain down this way until tomorrow AM.  
In AFD CTP highlights the great difficulty HIRES guidence as been having with the convective evolution of these rain bands. This tracks what I was reading on Twitter yesterday regarding the meso not having a clue with rainfall. So basically I think we are flying blind and have nothing to fall back on but now casting up to maybe 2-3 hours lead time. Screenshot_20240402-132714_Chrome.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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54 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

In AFD CTP highlights the great difficulty HIRES guidence as been having with the convective evolution of these rain bands. This tracks what I was reading on Twitter yesterday regarding the meso not having a clue with rainfall. So basically I think we are flying blind and have nothing to fall back on but now casting up to maybe 2-3 hours lead time. Screenshot_20240402-132714_Chrome.jpg

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

The radar is fairly clear back to Western Ohio and Kentucky...in a PA context.  The area in WV still headed mainly south of us as of now.     Not doubt there will be showers and blobs of rain that pass or form, but I am not seeing any concentrated several hour strat rains the rest of the day/during daylight.  That 2-3 MORE inches of rain headline does not seem overly likely here.   The main roads are dry down this way. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The radar is fairly clear back to Western Ohio and Kentucky...in a PA context.  The area in WV still headed mainly south of us as of now.     Not doubt there will be showers and blobs of rain that pass or form, but I am not seeing any concentrated several hour strat rains the rest of the day.  That 2-3 MORE inches of rain headline does not seem overly likely here.   The main roads are dry down this way. 

 

Unlike last summer, I  keep getting hit by those convective isolated showers. But radar is finally looking to dry out shortly.

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU still hyping snow and graupel on Thursday - "funny things happen under upper level lows..."

Some people may get more precip Thursday than they do today.   Those pop up showers mean business and could drop 1/2 to 1" if you catch several. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU still hyping snow and graupel on Thursday - "funny things happen under upper level lows..."

That is a fact. We've had a couple of graupel events here in parts of the metro Phoenix area from upper level lows this winter.

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12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Some people may get more precip Thursday than they do today.   Those pop up showers mean business and could drop 1/2 to 1" if you catch several. 

Thursday is definitely a wild card - CTP says less than a tenth of an inch. I tend to agree with your assessment. :)

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As we round out the first quarter of 2024, I thought it might be a good time for a review of temperatures. Through the first quarter of 2024, it's been quite toasty in central Pennsylvania.

Williamsport: Third warmest start to the year [of 130 years], behind 2012 & 2023.

image.png.4d8f6fab14760c03fa4d49047ced86ea.png

Harrisburg / Middletown: Sixth warmest start to the year [of 136 years], behind 2020, 2023, 1998, 2012 & 1990.

image.png.5b7097bfe4b34d1fe3f6d82e7348752d.png

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1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

As we round out the first quarter of 2024, I thought it might be a good time for a review of temperatures. Through the first quarter of 2024, it's been quite toasty in central Pennsylvania.

Williamsport: Third warmest start to the year [of 130 years], behind 2012 & 2023.

image.png.4d8f6fab14760c03fa4d49047ced86ea.png

Harrisburg / Middletown: Sixth warmest start to the year [of 136 years], behind 2020, 2023, 1998, 2012 & 1990.

image.png.5b7097bfe4b34d1fe3f6d82e7348752d.png

 

You probably shouldn't think so much. Just enjoy the BN temps today. :)

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Even the grass is mostly dry here now.  Has not rained outside a few drops and drizzle since early morning.  The HRRR minors out the precip in SW PA right now such that it is just light over the LSV....next decent rain for the LSV not until 2-3AM and not until after rush hour down here tomorrow.  Today played out quite a bit differently than I expected as of yesterday. 

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Approaching 2.0” for the day (1.98”) and 2.71” for the event. I’m legitimately concerned for flooding in the local tributaries around here given the new headwater guidance this evening and the amount of rain forecast to fall yet thru tomorrow. There were already some issues today and the Little Juniata had already edged above flood stage early this evening for a bit. 

image.thumb.png.5a2ab1d3407d268e7e88844784e3e748.png

 

The Frankstown Branch is highly likely to get to major, and the Little Juniata has a shot at major too, but certainly a moderate range crest looks increasingly likely. Both branches with that kind of response would likely mean issues on the main Juniata thru Huntingdon and Lewistown. 

Here’s the updated overall FFG for 6hrs in the MARFC coverage area. 

image.thumb.png.617dd746a7e5b0240ed2666378601444.png

 

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2.3” was the daily total at midnight. Already 0.67” since midnight. Flooding issues of the small stream and poor drainage variety are occurring again. Another significant wave of rain on the doorstep. 

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2-day total of 2.97” here. Gonna be an over-performer. Low of 43 and high of 48 yesterday. This is one of those events where even when the radar is empty it adds up. The drizzle has weight to it ha. #easterlies

Just got into Mount Joy and if we get more heavy rains there will be flooding problems. The Little Chiques is ready to burst its banks.
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39 this Am.  The rain conveniently started up again just after midnight but only .3 more  for a 5-day running total of 2.4".  Less than 2" for the work week.   No flooding over this way. 

Close Approx. (may be missing .01 or .02 either way) three-day work week running totals for Major NWS Spots.  This includes up until 7:30 this AM. 

 

AOO: 2.87

LNS: 2.52

MDT: 2.43

CXY: 2.16

HGR: 1.65

 

 

 

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