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Central Pa. Spring 2024


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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

What? I don’t know what TL or DR means, but those monthly anomalies would result in one of the hottest summers on record surely.

I said it in reference to the forecaster who almost always taints toward being warm.  Look back to 2021 when both June and Aug were over 3AN at MDT.    5 of the top 8 warmest summers are over the last 10 years and are close to or warmer than MU's forecast.    For this year take a +1 in 2 months and a +4 in one and that is a +6, which is near (within a degree or two) or below all of the 5 summers referenced above.  It is not cool of course but norm for the new reality.   Once of these years we are going to have all 3 summer months break anomalies of 4 or more each month. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I said it in reference to the forecaster who almost always taints toward being warm.  Look back to 2021 when both June and Aug were over 3AN at MDT.    5 of the top 8 warmest summers are over the last 10 years and are warmer than MU's forecast.    For this year Take a +1 in 2 months and a +4 in one and that is a +6, which is near or below all of the 5 summers referenced above.  It is not cool of course but norm for the new reality. 

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Oh we’re you saying “too long, didn’t read” - I thought it was some sort of city or county abbreviation but couldn’t figure out what it could possibly be.:arrowhead:

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A quick scan suggests that since 2010, no summer has finished below 55th out of 135 on the warmest summers list.   If you take being in the bottom 50% as a "cool summer", they are literally history for now.   The last time we had a cool summer/bottom 50% of the totals in MDT history was in 2009 unless I missed one in scanning.  Every one of the next 14 summers has been above the 50% line.   The most telling stat of all, out of the top ten warmest summers at MDT, 6 have occurred since 2010.   In a sample size that equates to just barely over 10% of all summers in recorded MDT history, 60% have been top 10. 

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4 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

WGAL throws down the gauntlet and says you may need an umbrella for Sunday golf in Lanco. 

CTP strongly disagrees. Here is their current point & click forecast for Lancaster on Sunday.

Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
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6 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP strongly disagrees. Here is their current point & click forecast for Lancaster on Sunday.

Sunday
Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Meso wise it still looks a lot less rainy than a few days ago but still showers around.   Personally, I doubt it affects the golf that much and may be after dark Sunday. 

 

Waking up to 47 degrees on the first day of summer.    Time for you to play the opposites game and start the thread...strike back at @Voyager for sinking our winter :-).  If MU sees you start the thread, he will feel some stress with is forecast. 

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Across Chester County PA we finished May with an average temperature across the 27 NWS/MADIS stations of 63.9 degrees this was the 27th warmest May since records began in 1893. The warmest station was of course Phoenixville at 65.6 degrees and the coolest was at Warwick Township at 62.7 degrees. The highest temperature during the month was recorded at West Chester with the 88.7 degrees on the 26th. Our lowest temperature was the 40.1 degrees on the 11th. The greatest monthly rainfall was at West Chester with 3.57" of rain. Below is the long term May actual (blue) climate history since 1895 - compared with the altered adjusted (red) NCEI trend lines. The actual lines show no warming and actually some cooling over history....while the adjusted NCEI figures show some slight warming.

image.thumb.png.b5f75dcc80e079caf4afc7b016ac4c75.png

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5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

They pulled out the plows to deal with hail in Texas

image.png.fae289ac431355b529cc04aae3fd27e7.png

 

I need this to happen at MDT.

Maybe that would be 1.3” of frozen that would pad our seasonal total to get us to the 20” mark.

That last storm in February still stings where I got 7” of snow in Marysville, while MDT got less than 2” of snow. That death band of snow that hit just north of Harrisburg, robbed the turnpike & south of a better event.

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A quick scan suggests that since 2010, no summer has finished below 55th out of 135 on the warmest summers list.   If you take being in the bottom 50% as a "cool summer", they are literally history for now.   The last time we had a cool summer/bottom 50% of the totals in MDT history was in 2009 unless I missed one in scanning.  Every one of the next 14 summers has been above the 50% line.   The most telling stat of all, out of the top ten warmest summers at MDT, 6 have occurred since 2010.   In a sample size that equates to just barely over 10% of all summers in recorded MDT history, 60% have been top 10. 
I would focus on max temps and ditch min and average. Nobody really judges summer but by max temps

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31 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I would focus on max temps and ditch min and average. Nobody really judges summer but by max temps

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

I can see your point on average, but Min has probably been more of the judged number on this board vs. max.   90/60 is better than 85/75. 

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Today should be the warmest day for the next week with temps reaching the mid 80's in most spots. Shower chances increase later tomorrow into Thursday morning. Sunny with slightly cooler than normal temps to close out the week.
Chester County records for today: High 101 degrees at Phoenixville (1925) / Low 39 degrees at Coatesville (1929) / Rain 1.91" at Devault (2003)
image.png.207cabef3514b33c408c18ff2715462f.png
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On 5/31/2024 at 8:18 PM, Bubbler86 said:

A quick scan suggests that since 2010, no summer has finished below 55th out of 135 on the warmest summers list.   If you take being in the bottom 50% as a "cool summer", they are literally history for now.   The last time we had a cool summer/bottom 50% of the totals in MDT history was in 2009 unless I missed one in scanning.  Every one of the next 14 summers has been above the 50% line.   The most telling stat of all, out of the top ten warmest summers at MDT, 6 have occurred since 2010.   In a sample size that equates to just barely over 10% of all summers in recorded MDT history, 60% have been top 10. 

At MDT since 1941 a total of 14 of the top 25 summers (June thru August) or 56% occurred before the year 2000 during our current warmer cycle. Of note 4 summers since Y2K finished in the top 25 of chilliest summers - 2009 / 2004/ 2003/ 2000

image.png.2e30fb50729fcfe106536a858e43bde2.png

 

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7 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

At MDT since 1941 a total of 14 of the top 25 summers (June thru August) or 56% occurred before the year 2000 during our current warmer cycle. Of note 4 summers since Y2K finished in the top 25 of chilliest summers - 2009 / 2004/ 2003/ 2000

image.png.2e30fb50729fcfe106536a858e43bde2.png

 

Hell of a way to spin a table that shows 5 of the 6 warmest summers have occurred in the past 14 years.

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20 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

At MDT since 1941 a total of 14 of the top 25 summers (June thru August) or 56% occurred before the year 2000. Of note 3 summers since Y2K finished in the top 25 of chilliest summers.

image.png.2e30fb50729fcfe106536a858e43bde2.png

 

Expanding the dates out to lessen the effects is good for a longer-term view of it but 6/10 or 8/13 (if you go down to spot 13) are both near 60%.  Out of a 135 summers, 60% of our top 10 has occurred in only 10% of our possible years (14/135).   This was in response to me saying MU's forecast was not too bad as we seemingly push breaking records for new hottest summer almost every year now.   

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41 minutes ago, TimB said:

Hell of a way to spin a table that shows 5 of the 6 warmest summers have occurred in the past 14 years.

Just the facts and not surprising at all during our current warm phase....but still several chilliest summers ever in the same 23 year period. Cyclical climate change FTW!!

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24 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Below shows that of course NCEI has warmed 20 of the last 23 summers at MDT....from the actual (blue)to the altered (red)average temp lines.

image.png.0ec7177d3211d0001bc5766ad75092a2.png

Interesting. Looks like they reduced the recent warming trend by generally warming the past more?

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7 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Interesting. Looks like they reduced the recent warming trend by generally warming the past more?

Confirmed. NCEI's adjustments have lowered the raw data trend of +10.4F/century so far in the 21st century down to +7.6F/century. Why are they trying to hide the warming trend? @ChescoWx

image.png.8550f832fb7cd13c45d0e0c30ceb6ee9.png

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