Shack Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Gorgeous morning sunrise. 46deg and breezy. I am at 4,500 feet atop Curtiss Mountain. That's just outside Highlands and a little northeast of Scaly. My daughter is marrying a truly good man today at the Rockwood Lodge, perched gloriously atop this little knob. Family from Macon, Georgia is here, as well as the grooms's folks from St. Louis. I am truly, full to the brim, today. Joy, favor, humbled. Macon has been our home but we have always felt a strong connection with these hills since my daughter was born and we first ventured up here to see her play in the snow one stormy January. Today offers a weather nerd's happy feelings of tracking a little front coming through this afternoon mixed with the reality that it may mean a soggy ceremony. Yes, we are doing this outdoors, today. But I am at peace, and my daughter, who shares my weather love, has just smiled and reminded me that she's always liked a good rainy afternoon, too. These pages have long been a fun place for me to read and occasionally post. I appreciate those of you who have long carried the board's conversations. Say a prayer for my daugher, Roxy, and her fiance', Ben today. And, for their mama's and daddy's. Shack 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 3 hours ago, Shack said: Gorgeous morning sunrise. 46deg and breezy. I am at 4,500 feet atop Curtiss Mountain. That's just outside Highlands and a little northeast of Scaly. My daughter is marrying a truly good man today at the Rockwood Lodge, perched gloriously atop this little knob. Family from Macon, Georgia is here, as well as the grooms's folks from St. Louis. I am truly, full to the brim, today. Joy, favor, humbled. Macon has been our home but we have always felt a strong connection with these hills since my daughter was born and we first ventured up here to see her play in the snow one stormy January. Today offers a weather nerd's happy feelings of tracking a little front coming through this afternoon mixed with the reality that it may mean a soggy ceremony. Yes, we are doing this outdoors, today. But I am at peace, and my daughter, who shares my weather love, has just smiled and reminded me that she's always liked a good rainy afternoon, too. These pages have long been a fun place for me to read and occasionally post. I appreciate those of you who have long carried the board's conversations. Say a prayer for my daugher, Roxy, and her fiance', Ben today. And, for their mama's and daddy's. Shack Congratulations on the amazing celebration! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Had a wonderful cold low of 41 degrees. Was hoping to hit the 30s one last time but just not quite there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Nice rainy night. Picked up .54 so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 21 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Nice rainy night. Picked up .54 so far. Looks like a rainy day as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Going to be a wet day. I'd say most will get an inch put of this except the desert of Asheville. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 A lot of good moderate rain falling this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 Lots of storms firing. Going to be an active afternoon in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 5 Share Posted June 5 .30 today. 2.34 since sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 6 Share Posted June 6 That severe cluster of storms may need to be watched overnight for us especially the southern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Looks like some could see some storms tonight. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Looks like some pretty decent storms going to blow through. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Looks like these storms might be going severe. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Severe Thunderstorm warning. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southern Madison County in western North Carolina... Northern Haywood County in western North Carolina... Buncombe County in western North Carolina... * Until 700 PM EDT. * At 604 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 7 miles east of Newport to 9 miles east of Gatlinburg, moving southeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 It's coming Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: It's coming Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Just checking this out. Looks rough! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 9 Share Posted June 9 7 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said: Just checking this out. Looks rough! Yeah this line really blew up as it got into eastern Tennessee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 Yesterday was picture perfect with a high of 70 and this mornings low of 47 degrees. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Picked up 3.81” from some late night storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 36 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Picked up 3.81” from some late night storms. Those storms hardly moved last night. Crazy how they just trained over and over for hours. That's why that's considered temperate rain forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 23 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Those storms hardly moved last night. Crazy how they just trained over and over for hours. That's why that's considered temperate rain forest. Parts of McDowell got 2-3 inches too. Not MBY. Only .08. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 2 hours ago, wncsnow said: Parts of McDowell got 2-3 inches too. Not MBY. Only .08. Oh yeah I got blanked myself. Hoping today I get some rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Storms starting to pop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0448 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 454 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Areas affected...TN Valley east through the Blue Ridge into Upstate SC Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 162053Z - 170230Z Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms with rain rates nearing 2"/hr at times will expand in coverage through the afternoon. This could result in locally more than 3" of rainfall and isolated instances of flash flooding. Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon depicts a rapid expansion of showers and thunderstorms from central TN eastward through northern GA and into Upstate SC. These storms are developing around the periphery of an intensifying mid-level ridge, and in the vicinity of a stationary front/warm front analyzed by WPC to be waving around the southern Appalachians. Thermodynamics across the region are impressive with PWs measured by GPS of 1.5 to 1.7 inches, around the 90th percentile for the date, overlapping extreme instability analyzed by the SPC RAP to be 3000-4000 J/kg. Into these thermodynamics, weak ascent created via modest upper diffluence, a weak impulse lifting northward, and some upslope flow/isentropic ascent on the 10-15 kts low-level flow is helping to create the ongoing convection. It is likely the environment will remain favorable for additional development through loss of heating several hours from now. The CAMs are generally under-producing the current coverage of convection, so confidence in the exact evolution is modest. However, the robust thermodynamics and weak southerly flow are progged to persist into the evening, and the ingredients suggest that this will support additional convective development until convective overturning or nocturnal stabilization occurs. Thunderstorms will likely remain scattered and pulse in the presence of weak shear, with outflow boundaries and storm mergers contributing to additional development, and these storms have a 40-60% chance (10-20%) for 1+"/hr (2+"/hr) rain rates according to the HREF neighborhood probabilities. These intense rates will also be very slow moving as noted by propagation vectors that are collapsed to just around 5 kts in the presence of weak flow, and it is likely that terrain influences may also cause periods of nearly-stationary cells. Limiting the flash flood risk is that storm lifespans should be modest due the pulse nature, but where storms can repeat or lock in place, even briefly, isolated amounts of 3" or more are possible (20-40% chance) according to the HREF. This area has been generally dry as noted by 7-day AHPS anomalies that are less than 50% resulting in 0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT that is only 30-50%. However, there are some wetter soils across TN and in the vicinity of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Although the risk for rapid runoff and flash flooding may be a bit higher in the more saturated soils, or across any urban areas and sensitive terrain features, the slow movement of these intense rates could produce isolated instances of flash flooding anywhere across the region through the evening. Weiss ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX... OHX...PAH...RNK... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 Another day of scattered thunderstorms developing across the Mountains. Picked up 3/4 of an inch yesterday afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 39 minutes ago, Maggie Valley Steve said: Another day of scattered thunderstorms developing across the Mountains. Picked up 3/4 of an inch yesterday afternoon. Nice. We got a trace over my area. Very hit and miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maggie Valley Steve Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 The models are coming around to the idea that another deep trough sets up over the Great Lakes into the Tennessee River Valley next week. Looking like a decent cold front and rain/storm chances increase during the weekend into next week! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 A beautiful evening Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted June 22 Share Posted June 22 Hopefully we get some rain, I'm only at 0.58" for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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