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Christmas Storm VII

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

kudos to foothills again! in one of these threads some pages back he said he would upgrade the amounts in ne ga :thumbsup: gsp just updated their wsw...and this was a shock!

he has been all over this storm :rambo:

thanks. Think your'e looking good!

Robert I hope your mom is doing a lot better this morning. She's in my thoughts and prayers. I was curious about something. Based on the RUC modeling are you thinking the dynamics that are in play, will also affect the central portions of the Carolinas in the same way?

Its going to be hard to say.These things are evolving so rapidly. Theres excellent UVV rates in central SC for a while as well, so I think they will do fine after dark.

Well, it's just amazing to me how we'll be too far west for the coastal and too far east for the deformation band. It's just hard for me to fathom how these things end up happening. Every damn time. Like I said to Sean on Facebook: winter storms always come up with new and creative ways to screw Chapel Hill.

Seems like we go through this every Winter storm. Yet, in the end you always end up getting way more than you thought you would.

Stayed up for the Euro all week looks like all those late nights were just training to watch the snow bike.gif

Yep. I feel like I'm hungover. Headache, drowsy, etc. To me its probably funner for the chase, than the actual storm arriving. Weird. Hope I don't sleep through the snow.

Would you be talking about n.foothills also or just southern nc ? wouldn't I be to far nw of the 850 low ? I don't know how far nw of the 850 low get's the good snow rates 100 miles ?

probably for a while nw NC is in good rates but at some point the downslope will kick in there, can't say how early but it could easily shift upwards to your area, the 850 low is rather elongated but going by the cyclonic curvature winds at 850 the maximum lift is probably around Morganton to Hickory, as far as perfection goes. But thats splitting hairs I think.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Can someone please explain to me why the latest run of the RUC looks like it's pushing our little low off the coast and falling apart? I'm not sure I understand how to read a phase yet if that's what's happening... but to my eye definitely looks like the low is falling apart and we are relying on the northern stream? Or is there going to be a reform?

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Well, it's just amazing to me how we'll be too far west for the coastal and too far east for the deformation band. It's just hard for me to fathom how these things end up happening. Every damn time. Like I said to Sean on Facebook: winter storms always come up with new and creative ways to screw Chapel Hill.

Well we should get 3-4" of snow, not as much as people west or east of us but still pretty good (although I agree with you, this seemed to happen last year ;-) ) Hopefully Robert get's plastered he practically willed this storm.

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Robert

Robert

Posted
Posted

thanks. Think your'e looking good!

Its going to be hard to say.These things are evolving so rapidly. Theres excellent UVV rates in central SC for a while as well, so I think they will do fine after dark.

Seems like we go through this every Winter storm. Yet, in the end you always end up getting way more than you thought you would.

Yep. I feel like I'm hungover. Headache, drowsy, etc. To me its probably funner for the chase, than the actual storm arriving. Weird. Hope I don't sleep through the snow.

probably for a while nw NC is in good rates but at some point the downslope will kick in there, can't say how early but it could easily shift upwards to your area, the 850 low is rather elongated but going by the cyclonic curvature winds at 850 the maximum lift is probably around Morganton to Hickory, as far as perfection goes. But thats splitting hairs I think.

Robert, thanks for all the updates. Praying for your mother. You keep saying the upstate. I assume you are mainly referring to the I-85 corridor. Union did real well in the 2000 and 2003 storms. 2005 if I remember correctly. We got those deformation zones then. Last year they set up just to our NW. Guess they are progged to do that again. I still think we get a couple of inches. Was hoping for more. Is that how you see this developing here just south of GSP.

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NCWeSU

NCWeSU

Posted
Posted

The heavier precip for the triangle won't get here until late tonight (after midnight). If you click on this link and scroll down to the radar observations subheading and click on the radar loop, you should get a general idea of how the precip will propagate. Although obviously the precip won't be in that exact location, as slow moving or probably not as heavy since the surface low is not as strong... but just a general idea, imo of how the radar will look with this system.

That's where we'll get our 3-7 inches or so.

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

probably for a while nw NC is in good rates but at some point the downslope will kick in there, can't say how early but it could easily shift upwards to your area, the 850 low is rather elongated but going by the cyclonic curvature winds at 850 the maximum lift is probably around Morganton to Hickory, as far as perfection goes. But thats splitting hairs I think.

Robert, That is an absolute dirty word please try to refrain from useing it :lol: I really wasn't thinking about downslopeing with this storm. Thanks for the answers, Hope your mom is doing better, She's in our prayers. Merry Christmas :santa:

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
Posted

THe line stretching northwest of Raliegh will likely remain semi-stationary agonzing Triangle residents for the next 3-6 hours. However, the area of moderate precipitation over north-central Georgia should continue to move NE making a bee-line for upstate SC and east-central and eastern NC. This area should strengthen as the upper level energy continues dive in from the north enhancing UVV's and causing our surface low to rapidly strengthen. This will lead to an area of moderate to heavy snow over central and eastern NC I would think by 6-9pm.

Also, while it stink to see the boundary layer warm up, 43 here at my house, I just peaked at a TAMDAR sounding from an aircraft taking off from RDU around 11:15am. It is below freezing at 920mb and the surface warm layer is very shallow. As precip begins we may see a brief period of rain or rain mixed with snow but I would imagine within an hour it would be all snow with temps falling through the mid 30s into the low 30s. As of now I see no reason to make large scale changes to my forecast map, although I certianly could see greater than the 6 inhces I forecast for the NC foothills.

The intriguing part will be how close to teh coast the coastal forms and how strong it gets. If it is just a little further west and stronger areas from the Triangle east go from a 5-7 inch type event to more.

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RaleighWx

RaleighWx

Posted
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Another trend to follow is the blowup of precip in the Fl panhandle and southern AL. This is in association with the coastal low. The 12z GFS had strong UVVs not extending as far north into southern AL as it appears to be as of 18z. If we see the precip continue to blossom and extend north into say central,south-central Ga, that is a sign the models are underestimating the strength of the low and the expanse of the precip.

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

Another trend to follow is the blowup of precip in the Fl panhandle and southern AL. This is in association with the coastal low. The 12z GFS had strong UVVs not extending as far north into southern AL as it appears to be as of 18z. If we see the precip continue to blossom and extend north into say central,south-central Ga, that is a sign the models are underestimating the strength of the low and the expanse of the precip.

Just came in here to post about that. RUC has been trending stronger with the low in the GOM.

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JQPublic

JQPublic

Posted
Posted

Another trend to follow is the blowup of precip in the Fl panhandle and southern AL. This is in association with the coastal low. The 12z GFS had strong UVVs not extending as far north into southern AL as it appears to be as of 18z. If we see the precip continue to blossom and extend north into say central,south-central Ga, that is a sign the models are underestimating the strength of the low and the expanse of the precip.

Will that convection rob us of moisture further north or will it come up with the low?

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lilj4425

lilj4425

Posted
Posted

From Andy Wood talking about the GSP area:

if we get the 0.5 as suggested…. then that’s at least 5 and more for a lot of places around here…

just checked mid-level freezing layer temps and they are lower than I thought they would be at this stage of the game and will go lower and the storm pivots and takes a left hand turn toward the Savannah coastline later tonight (the center of the storm now is in the north-central gulf of mex)

we are looking at heavy wet flakes with 12:1 snow ratios to maybe 15:1 snow ratios later tonight once the air really starts cooling down in the mid-levels

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bta0812

bta0812

Posted
Posted

In in North Central NC along 85(Henderson area) we are sitting at around 38 degrees right now and I guess we will see some light rain early on today until it all gets pumping this way tonight. Anyone have any projections for the Henderson area? I'm a novice when it comes to the models for the most part. The TV stations around here are always conservative with estimates(no problem with that) but I was wondering if anyone had a "gut" feeling about it, and not some crazy theory of the perfect storm. A real probability for the area. Thanks guys.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

Posted
Posted

From Andy Wood talking about the GSP area:

if we get the 0.5 as suggested…. then that’s at least 5 and more for a lot of places around here…

just checked mid-level freezing layer temps and they are lower than I thought they would be at this stage of the game and will go lower and the storm pivots and takes a left hand turn toward the Savannah coastline later tonight (the center of the storm now is in the north-central gulf of mex)

we are looking at heavy wet flakes with 12:1 snow ratios to maybe 15:1 snow ratios later tonight once the air really starts cooling down in the mid-levels

you getting any snow yet? Not here yet. Yes I agree with him on the pivot axis tonight, we should get into that nicely and see the fluffy flakes.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

The only thing that could make this Christmas snowstorm better is ... well... some SNOW! :gun_bandana:

In the meantime - I would love a pro to look at this and discuss.

I'm looking at the 850 heights on the 16z RUC

First, 8 hours-- this is the first time a closed low appears -- it appears to be right over my head, maybe Rutherford County.

Then, Hour 9 -- maybe I'm hallucinating, but the 850 low appears to have retrograded to the SW and is now over extreme NW S.C.

There is no closed feature again for hours 10-13

Then, at hour 14, it pops up again to the SE over Aiken, S.C.

Then, if finally starts a slow move to the NE, which is the path I assumed it would be taking all along.

My questions are -- why does the 850 move SW, then SE; is it a significant model depiction and if so, what is its significance?

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

Some of you honestly have to remember. This storm is intensifying....not weakening, so there could easily be a build up of moisture in AL. and TN, especially since the RUC has been showing this consistently now. It isn't even close to over yet.

would love for a met to comment on this. It appears the back edge is racing east. Just wondering when it will come to a stop before pivoting???? any help with this? I did like the look of the RUC for east TN.

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