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Christmas Storm VII


Cold Rain

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The 850 low position and its cyclonic forcing is aimed right at the foothills region of NC tonight, staring in about 5 hours from now, and growing strong, reaching its peak forcing around 10 to 12 hours from now, but continuing all the way through 18 hours to some degree, with stationary banding and mesoscale forcing for the 85 and 40 corridors . This is when excellent dynamics are in play and the tilting comma head from the deepening coastal, so I won't be surprised to see some 1"+ hourly snow rates tonight around GSP CLT HKY and AVL regions.

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The 850 low position and its cyclonic forcing is aimed right at the foothills region of NC tonight, staring in about 5 hours from now, and growing strong, reaching its peak forcing around 10 to 12 hours from now, but continuing all the way through 18 hours to some degree, with stationary banding and mesoscale forcing for the 85 and 40 corridors . This is when excellent dynamics are in play and the tilting comma head from the deepening coastal, so I won't be surprised to see some 1"+ hourly snow rates tonight around GSP CLT HKY and AVL regions.

So central NC is screwed, then?

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Great. WNC gets thumped, nothing in central. Then the low gets cranking, but it's warmed up too much here so we fight with rain and non-accumulating snow. The low zips off, while consolidating precip closer to it, so eastern NC up into VA get hammered. Looks like a traditional central NC shaft-job.

your best snow is not going to be there until late this evening into early morning hours tomorrow. don't let one run of the models get u down.

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From a friend in Marietta, a rain snow mix started about 11 AM and then truned to mostly snow with nice sized flakes soon afterward. His car temp. dropped from 38 to 36. As he traveled south to near 75 and 285, it turned to more of a rain/snow mix. He saw no sticking even where it was mostly snow. However, I'm quite confident that much of the ATL area will get at least 2" based on the dropping 850's and nice precip. rates.

According to the AJC, the largest official 12/25 snow on record at ATL is 0.3" set way back in 1882:

"While the metro area did receive a brief smattering of flurries in 1993, none of it stuck. Nearly a third of an inch was measured 128 years ago, a record that's stood ever since."

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just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then.:snowman:

Robert I hope your mom is doing a lot better this morning. She's in my thoughts and prayers. I was curious about something. Based on the RUC modeling are you thinking the dynamics that are in play, will also affect the central portions of the Carolinas in the same way?

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It is peppering down now RObert. From nothing to all sn in about 5 mins, once the returns started.

Bout to head to Rutherfordton for dinner, So I will be on the blackberry.

Coming down nice with it laying at 36 imby

just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then.:snowman:

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your best snow is not going to be there until late this evening into early morning hours tomorrow. don't let one run of the models get u down.

Well, it's just amazing to me how we'll be too far west for the coastal and too far east for the deformation band. It's just hard for me to fathom how these things end up happening. Every damn time. Like I said to Sean on Facebook: winter storms always come up with new and creative ways to screw Chapel Hill.

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Great. WNC gets thumped, nothing in central. Then the low gets cranking, but it's warmed up too much here so we fight with rain and non-accumulating snow. The low zips off, while consolidating precip closer to it, so eastern NC up into VA get hammered. Looks like a traditional central NC shaft-job.

Sure it does... except you are 100% wrong. These temps mean nothing right now and will crash once precip gets in. GSO is seeing light snow start with a temp near 39 and this is the front end before things cool. Take it easy bro!

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The 850 low position and its cyclonic forcing is aimed right at the foothills region of NC tonight, staring in about 5 hours from now, and growing strong, reaching its peak forcing around 10 to 12 hours from now, but continuing all the way through 18 hours to some degree, with stationary banding and mesoscale forcing for the 85 and 40 corridors . This is when excellent dynamics are in play and the tilting comma head from the deepening coastal, so I won't be surprised to see some 1"+ hourly snow rates tonight around GSP CLT HKY and AVL regions.

Stayed up for the Euro all week looks like all those late nights were just training to watch the snow bike.gif

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Sure it does... except you are 100% wrong. These temps mean nothing right now and will crash once precip gets in. GSO is seeing light snow start with a temp near 39 and this is the front end before things cool. Take it easy bro!

We are also fighting to get the precip here at all. I feel like most of it will be west and then when it does get here, it scoots on out before setting up shop in VA and further north.

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Well, it's just amazing to me how we'll be too far west for the coastal and too far east for the deformation band. It's just hard for me to fathom how these things end up happening. Every damn time. Like I said to Sean on Facebook: winter storms always come up with new and creative ways to screw Chapel Hill.

I actually think you guys are going to get drilled once the low starts cranking tonight. It will probably hang around out there through lunch time tomorrow. Just go chill and get some eggnog.

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Sure it does... except you are 100% wrong. These temps mean nothing right now and will crash once precip gets in. GSO is seeing light snow start with a temp near 39 and this is the front end before things cool. Take it easy bro!

Widre switched into troll mode as soon as the storm became obvious it would be good. That's how you know it's actually gonna be good.

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Haha check the AFD from gsp:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE/THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTERWEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA.HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTERTHE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BYMESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES.

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dawsonwx - get ready :snowman:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1214 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM

EST SUNDAY...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND

MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TWO TO FOUR INCHES

OF SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH

UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. UP

TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS COLUMBUS...MACON AND

SANDERSVILLE.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>024-260115-

/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0005.101225T1714Z-101226T1800Z/

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...

ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE

1214 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1

PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS

AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH WHILE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER

SOUTH. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN FAR NORTH

GEORGIA AS OF MIDDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS

SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST

FALLING OVER NORTH GEORGIA.

DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A ROME

TO GAINESVILLE LINE...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE STATE AS

WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

SNOW PACKED AND ICY ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT

WELL AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROP WELL

BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S AND WILL NOT

WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS...

ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. BE SURE TO

CHECK ON RELATIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

$$

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just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then.:snowman:

Would you be talking about n.foothills also or just southern nc ? wouldn't I be to far nw of the 850 low ? I don't know how far nw of the 850 low get's the good snow rates 100 miles ?

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.THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!!

RUC_255_2010122516_F03_CREF_SURFACE.png

Wow, just wow.

Yeah the ruc strongly suggest a big thumping for north ga. Despite temps near 40/low 40s now, as 850mb temps drop..as well as down to 925 to 950mb, the heavy nature of the precip combined with dynamical and evaporational cooling should drop the temps back into the 30s fairly quickly. Then has the snow continues to fall, surface temps will further cool into the low 30s imo. Then the question is how long does the snow last, and with some banding features starting to show up in the models, some areas could be looking at an extending period of moderate to heavy snow. Latest ruc sits this heavy band up from the atlanta/athens areas into western nc. Indeed, the latest ruc just through hour 12 is showing 0.50 amounts from atlanta to athens northward and it's still snowing at that time per the ruc. Snow is already falling in the northern burbs of atlanta via the last reports from places like like dallas and around kennesaw. So there is a quick changeover it appears after a brief period of rain and maybe sleet.

Actious to get it here, something should start falling here within the hour.

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Well, it's just amazing to me how we'll be too far west for the coastal and too far east for the deformation band. It's just hard for me to fathom how these things end up happening. Every damn time. Like I said to Sean on Facebook: winter storms always come up with new and creative ways to screw Chapel Hill.

geography I suppose?

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Sure it does... except you are 100% wrong. These temps mean nothing right now and will crash once precip gets in. GSO is seeing light snow start with a temp near 39 and this is the front end before things cool. Take it easy bro!

Yep, I thought we may see some rain to kick things off with such warm temperatures, but no rain! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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The 850 low position and its cyclonic forcing is aimed right at the foothills region of NC tonight, staring in about 5 hours from now, and growing strong, reaching its peak forcing around 10 to 12 hours from now, but continuing all the way through 18 hours to some degree, with stationary banding and mesoscale forcing for the 85 and 40 corridors . This is when excellent dynamics are in play and the tilting comma head from the deepening coastal, so I won't be surprised to see some 1"+ hourly snow rates tonight around GSP CLT HKY and AVL regions.

That's wild. So, the 4 plus inches I have with more this afternoon are just a preliminary. Temps have stayed steady below 32 here since the precip started, so I think anybody worried about temps will quickly have that alleviated.

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Widre switched into troll mode as soon as the storm became obvious it would be good. That's how you know it's actually gonna be good.

hahaha....golden, my friend.:thumbsup: I'm in central NC so I'm relaxing...it's better to be here than the coastal plain at least...THEY will be dealing with temp problems.

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Just sent this to NWS forecasters via NWSchat in RAH and GSP.

Hi everyone...in the mid-atlantic/southeast...this upcoming storm is statistically very similar to this storm in January of 2000. http://www.eas.slu.e...HH=-99&map=COSN In that event...heavy snow knocked out power to over 250,000 residents in North Carolina. Most of those occurred in central NC (Sandhills area) where the heaviest snow fell. Have a nice holiday!

I would like to see a better -u wind to the north of the 850-mb low in the NAM and GFS forecasts...like in the analog...so these amounts are probably high because of that and the slower track of the analog to the northeast. Nonetheless...a very similar event.

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WWUS42 KFFC 251714

WSWFFC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1214 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 1 AM

EST SUNDAY...

.A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND

MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TWO TO FOUR INCHES

OF SNOW WILL FALL THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA WITH

UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS. UP

TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS LIKELY AS FAR SOUTH AS COLUMBUS...MACON AND

SANDERSVILLE.

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>024-260115-

/O.UPG.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KFFC.WS.W.0005.101225T1714Z-101226T1800Z/

DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-

CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-

CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CALHOUN...DAHLONEGA...CLEVELAND...

ROME...CARTERSVILLE...GAINESVILLE

1214 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1

PM EST SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS

AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH WHILE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER

SOUTH. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN FAR NORTH

GEORGIA AS OF MIDDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS

SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE HEAVIEST

FALLING OVER NORTH GEORGIA.

DUE TO THE LONGER DURATION OF SNOW ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF A ROME

TO GAINESVILLE LINE...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH PART OF THE STATE AS

WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW.

SNOW PACKED AND ICY ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT

WELL AFTER THE SNOW TAPERS OFF TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES DROP WELL

BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THE MID 20S AND WILL NOT

WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS...

ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ALL DAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...

AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. BE SURE TO

CHECK ON RELATIVES DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

$$

GAZ056-058>062-066>076-078>084-089>095-260115-

/O.EXA.KFFC.WW.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-101226T1800Z/

SPALDING-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-MERIWETHER-PIKE-

UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-WASHINGTON-GLASCOCK-JEFFERSON-

HARRIS-TALBOT-TAYLOR-CRAWFORD-BIBB-TWIGGS-WILKINSON-MUSCOGEE-

CHATTAHOOCHEE-MARION-SCHLEY-MACON-PEACH-HOUSTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRIFFIN...MILLEDGEVILLE...MACON...

COLUMBUS...WARNER ROBINS

1214 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF MIDDLE GEORGIA NORTH OF A

LUMPKIN TO WARNER ROBINS TO JEFFERSON LINE WHICH IS IN EFFECT

UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY.

THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS

AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH WHILE COLD AIR PUSHES FURTHER

SOUTH. UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN FAR NORTH

GEORGIA AS OF MIDDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS

SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE.

RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WILL WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW THIS

EVENING. UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

...ESPECIALLY ON GRASSY AND EXPOSED SURFACES. TEMPERATURES WILL

FALL TODAY AND APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK AS THE SNOW FALLS SO

SOME SLUSH AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING ON ROADWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED.

ICY ROADS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH

SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND 28 TO 30 BY SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BY LATE SUNDAY

MORNING WITH A HIGH NEAR 40 EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW

COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITI

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