Isopycnic Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Snippet from RAH latest update... THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER STORMTOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND SIX INCHES OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THENORTHWESTERN...NORTHERN... AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN... AROUND A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO CHAPEL HILL TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. Congrats Weirderman! The proverbial Kiss of Death. lol OnT... The wv imagery is looking great right now. Looks like someone in the SE will win from this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hope so Robert. Killing me this morning waiting as points in my county are picking up snow. Once we get going, i'll be we get going hard. I was thinking the start time would be 7 to 9 am here, from last night when I went to bed, but got up and saw it kept getting delayed. Once our big flake come down, I'm sure we'll make it to around 33 or so and maybe 32 , the time of day and no real good damming source may keep us from reaching 32 for a while I don't know, but tonight is when the UVV really kicks in with better dynamics coming directly over top. Models still show the surface low in a good spot after 7 pm and through the night off GA, which should do us good, and also the inverted trough on the lee side of the Apps extending through us to the low itself offshore. Normally that keeps a deformation snow band somewhre right around here, with gradually decreasing snow bands through the night and early am. We'll see. Of course nobody wants to get dryslotted, and hopefully that stays away. Going to check out the latest RUC. Nothing but brown ground My thoughts exactly Mark. Have you had any accums yet? Radar been showing you on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 My thoughts exactly Mark. Have you had any accums yet? Radar been showing you on the line. All rain here...getting overly concerned at the moment! 10 miles NW is all snow...back up to 37° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GSP just upped our totals to 6-10 inches. Wow, didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just starting to snow NW of GSO. This could be the Christmas miracle I mentioned yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 here also to 3 to 7 inches possible! Guess it is coming then. GSP just upped our totals to 6-10 inches. Wow, didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Nobody is seeing this storm coming. Thank goodness the Panthers don't have a home game tomorrow, or it would be Patriots-Panthers 2002 (with 80% Patriots fans in a 1/3 full stadium) all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 GSP just upped our totals to 6-10 inches. Wow, didn't see that coming. here also to 3 to 7 inches possible! Guess it is coming then. For me it's 3-5...are you guys going by the 7 day forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am loving the latest discussion from RAH .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1115 AM SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL NC... FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTERSTORM -- WITH WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW -- OVER ALL OF CENTRAL NC (LOWEST AROUND 3 INCHES OR EVEN A LITTLE LESS NEAR THE SC BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN) LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND SIX INCHES OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN...NORTHERN... AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN... AROUND A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO CHAPEL HILL TO ROANOKE RAPIDS. TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW ATTENDING A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHERNSTREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT INVOF NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE ENE TODAY... AND THEN NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST... AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND FURTHER BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW IS ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG THE GULF COAST EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC... ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. WHILE THE HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ULTIMATELY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AROUND THREE INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOLDSBORO AREA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS (FOUR TO SIX INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BACK TOWARD RALEIGH AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR BEFORE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS OUT OF THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO AROUND FREEZING OR SO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. -MWS/BADGETT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup. 7 day YFor me it's 3-5...are you guys going by the 7 day forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Robert -- check out last frame of radar -- looks like major precip fillin is about to commence .... My thoughts exactly Mark. Have you had any accums yet? Radar been showing you on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I hear ffc MAY finally about to upgrade to Winter Storm Warning for parts of N GA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yup. 7 day Yea from there it has me 2-4 with maybe an inch tomorrow. I would have to think we should be closer in the 4-8 range....but usually GSP is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We just dropped from 35.9 to 35.4 here in Fallston in the last 20 mins. without any snow coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I'm very curious to hear from any of the mets about the phasing of the storm. It appears from what I can see on the radar and maps, that the cold air is catching up but what about the timing of all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Based on the latest trends and the ruc, does it still look like it's possible for the low to explode more so than the global models are expecting, similar to what the Euro was showing the other day, or is that completely off the table? Looks like for the Raleigh area, we won't get any precip really until late this evening. The Triad area is definitely going to start seeing some snow very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!! Wow, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Blowing up but still having a little bit of an issue getting to the ground. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes Robert -- check out last frame of radar -- looks like major precip fillin is about to commence .... HOLY CRAP!!! .THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!! Wow, just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!! Wow, just wow. wow destroys wnc just obliterated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earlwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Question for you guys who had snow start already, did it take a bit of time for it to stick? Also are yalls falkes huge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgar2121 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 took a little while, but once it started....it took off. also, the flakes are not too big, mainly smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the ruc shows quite a bit of development over eastern TN b/n now and 2 PM.something to watch as the northern branch starts phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Robert -- check out last frame of radar -- looks like major precip fillin is about to commence .... just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 kudos to foothills again! in one of these threads some pages back he said he would upgrade the amounts in ne ga gsp just updated their wsw...and this was a shock! he has been all over this storm * * * GAZ010-017-NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003- 252300- /O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-101226T1700Z/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...ASHEVILLE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE 1159 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY... A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA NOT BORDERING TENNESSEE...THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * TIMING...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE. HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET... FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!! Wow, just wow. Great. WNC gets thumped, nothing in central. Then the low gets cranking, but it's warmed up too much here so we fight with rain and non-accumulating snow. The low zips off, while consolidating precip closer to it, so eastern NC up into VA get hammered. Looks like a traditional central NC shaft-job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's what I was wondering, if the phasing had started, it appeared to me to be a little further back but catching up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does everyone agree with the current guidance down in Charlotte that indicates the current boundary will stay NW of Charlotte up around Lake Norman until the storm gets going off the coast? Had some nervous calls from friends with work down in Charlotte doubting the event. Best advice I could offer is that the boundary NW of Charlotte seems to want to hold until this evening and will have to wait to see how the second half unfolds tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then. Awesome write up Robert!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 the ruc shows quite a bit of development over eastern TN b/n now and 2 PM.something to watch as the northern branch starts phasing. I thought this would backbuild and then fill in to southeast KY and southwest VA with the approach of the energy in western KY. Is that the piece of energy the RUC is keying on to start increasing precip rates in east TN? Nothing but light snows (really light) so far up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 That's what I was wondering, if the phasing had started, it appeared to me to be a little further back but catching up quickly. I guess the "pva" coming over atlanta is a good thing for snow? not sure what pva is...sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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