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Christmas Storm VII


Cold Rain

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Snippet from RAH latest update...

THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER STORMTOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND SIX INCHES OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THENORTHWESTERN...NORTHERN... AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND NORTHERNCOASTAL PLAIN... AROUND A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO CHAPEL HILL TO ROANOKE RAPIDS.

Congrats Weirderman! The proverbial Kiss of Death. lol

OnT... The wv imagery is looking great right now. Looks like someone in the SE will win from this system

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I hope so Robert. Killing me this morning waiting as points in my county are picking up snow.

Once we get going, i'll be we get going hard. I was thinking the start time would be 7 to 9 am here, from last night when I went to bed, but got up and saw it kept getting delayed. Once our big flake come down, I'm sure we'll make it to around 33 or so and maybe 32 , the time of day and no real good damming source may keep us from reaching 32 for a while I don't know, but tonight is when the UVV really kicks in with better dynamics coming directly over top. Models still show the surface low in a good spot after 7 pm and through the night off GA, which should do us good, and also the inverted trough on the lee side of the Apps extending through us to the low itself offshore. Normally that keeps a deformation snow band somewhre right around here, with gradually decreasing snow bands through the night and early am. We'll see. Of course nobody wants to get dryslotted, and hopefully that stays away. Going to check out the latest RUC.

Nothing but brown ground :)

My thoughts exactly Mark. Have you had any accums yet? Radar been showing you on the line.
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I am loving the latest discussion from RAH

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AS OF 1115 AM SATURDAY...

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL NC...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER

STORM -- WITH WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW -- OVER ALL OF

CENTRAL NC (LOWEST AROUND 3 INCHES OR EVEN A LITTLE LESS NEAR THE SC

BORDER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN) LATER TODAY

THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER STORM

TOTAL AMOUNTS TO AROUND SIX INCHES OR SO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

NORTHWESTERN...NORTHERN... AND NORTHEAST PIEDMONT... AND NORTHERN

COASTAL PLAIN... AROUND A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON TO CHAPEL HILL TO

ROANOKE RAPIDS.

TONIGHT: THE SURFACE LOW ATTENDING A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHERN

STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT INVOF NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE ENE TODAY...

AND THEN NE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST... AS NORTHERN STREAM

ENERGY AMPLIFIES AND FURTHER BACKS THE FLOW ALOFT. THE LOW IS

ACCORDINGLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN LATE TONIGHT INTO

SUNDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG THE

GULF COAST EXPANDS AND INTENSIFIES INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC... ROUGHLY

FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. WHILE THE HIGHEST LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS STILL

EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE COASTAL PLAIN... SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL

LIKELY ULTIMATELY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AROUND THREE

INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOLDSBORO AREA... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS

(FOUR TO SIX INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER) BACK TOWARD RALEIGH AND

POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER COUPLE OF INCHES WILL ALSO LIKELY

OCCUR BEFORE THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION AXIS PIVOTS OUT OF THE

WESTERN PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO AROUND

FREEZING OR SO TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. -MWS/BADGETT

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Based on the latest trends and the ruc, does it still look like it's possible for the low to explode more so than the global models are expecting, similar to what the Euro was showing the other day, or is that completely off the table?

Looks like for the Raleigh area, we won't get any precip really until late this evening. The Triad area is definitely going to start seeing some snow very soon.

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Robert -- check out last frame of radar -- looks like major precip fillin is about to commence ....

just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then.:snowman:

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kudos to foothills again! in one of these threads some pages back he said he would upgrade the amounts in ne ga :thumbsup: gsp just updated their wsw...and this was a shock!

he has been all over this storm :rambo:

* * *

GAZ010-017-NCZ053-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-

252300-

/O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0017.000000T0000Z-101226T1700Z/

RABUN-HABERSHAM-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-

TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-

MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-

OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...

SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...LAKE LURE

1159 AM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA NOT

BORDERING TENNESSEE...THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND

GEORGIA.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA

MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 12 INCHES.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED.

TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS AS SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE.

HEAVY SNOW MAY ALSO BRING DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOWS IN THE MID TO

UPPER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE SURE TO TAKE ALONG YOUR CELL

PHONE. WEAR A WARM COAT...GLOVES...AND BOOTS. KEEP A BLANKET...

FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN

EMERGENCY.

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.THE NEW RUC LOOKS AMAZING!!!!

RUC_255_2010122516_F03_CREF_SURFACE.png

Wow, just wow.

Great. WNC gets thumped, nothing in central. Then the low gets cranking, but it's warmed up too much here so we fight with rain and non-accumulating snow. The low zips off, while consolidating precip closer to it, so eastern NC up into VA get hammered. Looks like a traditional central NC shaft-job.

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Does everyone agree with the current guidance down in Charlotte that indicates the current boundary will stay NW of Charlotte up around Lake Norman until the storm gets going off the coast?

Had some nervous calls from friends with work down in Charlotte doubting the event. Best advice I could offer is that the boundary NW of Charlotte seems to want to hold until this evening and will have to wait to see how the second half unfolds tonight.

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just did, yep, and I'm getting sudden breezes..always a sign the virga is about to reach the ground here. Oh, just checked the latest RUC coming in, and boy oh boy, what we're in for. The radar can be a bit deceiving to our southwest, whats going to happen is as the surface low continues to head toward south of Mobile, just to its northwest is the dying upper low, which its PVA is going to get absorbed and fed straight across Eastern Alabama, right across Atlanta and up through here starting in about 7 hours. Well before then we'll be in good snow, but I'm really liking the very strong UVV's you can see on the RUC from eastern Alabama through here, and with cyclonic cuvature from the mid level system, in tandem with the negative tilting and the developing 850, everything I'm seeing points to a real heavy snow stretch for the Upstate, Ne GA and our area beginning around dark, and lasting a good long while, with no breaks, gaps or dryslots. Thats when you and I are dealing with probably 1" per hour rates I think. Just checked again the 850 low development and its a beaut for us. It begins that in 5 hours and has good south and easterly cyclonic curvature over us by 6 hours, then from 7 hours on through 12 hours or so the 850 low is fully formed and stays stationary near the Upstate. We should do very well, and that will enhance the rates, plus the comma head deformation snow is squarely on top of us then.:snowman:

Awesome write up Robert!!! :snowman:

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the ruc shows quite a bit of development over eastern TN b/n now and 2 PM.something to watch as the northern branch starts phasing.

I thought this would backbuild and then fill in to southeast KY and southwest VA with the approach of the energy in western KY. Is that the piece of energy the RUC is keying on to start increasing precip rates in east TN? Nothing but light snows (really light) so far up this way.

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