Christmas Storm VII

[strongwxnc]

Been thinking that since last night Burger. This has Over performance written all over it.

QC, do you an qpf for KQFD?

Looking at radar hard not to believe this storm might over perform.

[DaculaWeather]

Huntsville Update Winter Storm Warning

[FoothillsNC]

36 deg. and waiting on the returns to reach here. The ruc has it in a couple hours.

[strongwxnc]

GSP moved everything south a touch

36 deg. and waiting on the returns to reach here. The ruc has it in a couple hours.

[xwx]

33 here

nws showing 3-5 "

Here on the west side of danville i would say 3

xwx

[ncjoaquin]

GSP moved everything south a touch

Wow. 8.2. I believe it and then some.

[burrel2]

34/28 here. I think the clouds moved in at just the right time this morning. I love the look of the ATL radar! I think snow will be flying here within the hour.

[tarheelwx]

Been thinking that since last night Burger. This has Over performance written all over it.

QC, do you an qpf for KQFD?

Would agree but concerned about temps. We don't typically see high ratios with temps around 30. If we can get down to 25 or lower, I can see it. I also suspect we won't get optimum acculation due to temps (some melting). Still an excellent storm and I think the general 4-8" is a decent call.

Merry Christmas to all.

TW

[DaculaWeather]

Merry Christmas!

Is anyone reporting any snow falling in the SE?

Right here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/5899-observations-christmas-day-storm-and-beyond/page__st__120

[earlwx]

Merry christmas.... A nice 36 in dawsonville with cloudy skies. Can't wait to get out there and enjoy the snow!

[tnweathernut]

36 deg. and waiting on the returns to reach here. The ruc has it in a couple hours.

Robert,

Good luck to you and thank you for all your help with discussions and forecasts. Last night you were talking about snow expanding into much of east TN. Still thinks this development occurs later this morning, filling in on the backside toward southeast Ky and southwest VA, before pivoting later this evening? Or do you think the pivot sets up in western NC instead? This is fascinating to watch unfold.

[Amos83]

Been thinking that since last night Burger. This has Over performance written all over it.

QC, do you an qpf for KQFD?

Burger, I think you are all sitting pretty sweet. I'm jealous as hell for you guys but excited at the same time. Leave a little snow for me to play in when I get back!

Merry Christmas everyone!

[Lookout]

Merry christmas.... A nice 36 in dawsonville with cloudy skies. Can't wait to get out there and enjoy the snow!

Folks please use the observations thread for...well observations. Don't put them here.

[eyewall]

I posted what will likely be my final call map in the call map thread.

[Tullioz]

33 here

nws showing 3-5 "

Here on the west side of danville i would say 3

xwx

I would expect more than 3". I would think 5"-6" looks like a safe bet at this point.

[DaculaWeather]

New FFC Updated AFD

[strongwxnc]

Current 925 level

[ams30721us]

those are my reports to FFC from the NW GA area. Hopefully We can get a warning soon with the deformation band on top of us atleast the next 4-6 hours and rates of about an 1" an hour...

[DaculaWeather]

I'm a little concerned that some areas are going to get the precip but not the cold air. BMX radar is lit up now

http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_2.php

[BIG FROSTY]

FWIW--- JB says 5 inches for most of NC 10 inch starts near Richmond Va. then North from there.

[HKY_WX]

storm map update

http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-charlotte/snowstorm-update-fo-southeast

[Cheeznado]

If we can avoid rain here this is a good sign from the 14Z RUC:

[LovingGulfLows]

I was looking at the RUC, and if it cold enough, very fun times ahead for the ATL area. We are in constant band of mod. - heavy snow.

[BullCityWx]

Yes virginia, there is such a thing as santa claus:

101225/1900Z   7  02005KT  35.8F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.008|| 0.01     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    52|  0| 48
101225/2000Z   8  04004KT  33.6F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.035|| 0.04     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    63|  0| 37
101225/2100Z   9  06004KT  34.3F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.016|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    40|  0| 60
101225/2200Z  10  07004KT  34.5F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.004|| 0.06     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    40|  0| 60
101225/2300Z  11  08004KT  33.6F  RASN     0:1| 0.0|| 0.0    0.028|| 0.09     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    72|  0| 28
101226/0000Z  12  VRB01KT  32.9F  SNOW     9:1| 0.5|| 0.5    0.063|| 0.15     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    84|  0| 16
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101226/0100Z  13  VRB02KT  32.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.7|| 1.2    0.063|| 0.22     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    89|  0| 11
101226/0200Z  14  04004KT  32.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 1.6    0.035|| 0.25     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    90|  0| 10
101226/0300Z  15  04005KT  32.7F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 2.0    0.043|| 0.30     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    89|  0| 11
101226/0400Z  16  04005KT  32.5F  SNOW    12:1| 0.5|| 2.6    0.047|| 0.34     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    91|  0|  9
101226/0500Z  17  04006KT  32.5F  SNOW    10:1| 0.4|| 3.0    0.039|| 0.38     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00    91|  0|  9
101226/0600Z  18  03008KT  32.4F  SNOW    11:1| 0.3|| 3.3    0.028|| 0.41     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101226/0700Z  19  02009KT  32.4F  SNOW    13:1| 0.3|| 3.5    0.020|| 0.43     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0800Z  20  02010KT  32.2F  SNOW    12:1| 0.2|| 3.7    0.016|| 0.44     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/0900Z  21  02011KT  32.0F  SNOW    11:1| 0.2|| 3.9    0.016|| 0.46     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1000Z  22  02011KT  31.6F  SNOW    12:1| 0.2|| 4.1    0.016|| 0.48     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1100Z  23  01012KT  31.5F  SNOW    10:1| 0.2|| 4.3    0.020|| 0.50     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1200Z  24  01012KT  31.5F  SNOW    14:1| 0.2|| 4.4    0.012|| 0.51     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
101226/1300Z  25  01012KT  31.5F  SNOW    15:1| 0.2|| 4.7    0.016|| 0.52     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1400Z  26  02012KT  31.6F  SNOW    15:1| 0.2|| 4.9    0.016|| 0.54     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1500Z  27  02012KT  31.6F  SNOW    17:1| 0.2|| 5.1    0.012|| 0.55     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1600Z  28  02012KT  31.3F  SNOW    20:1| 0.2|| 5.3    0.008|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0
101226/1700Z  29  01011KT  31.5F  SNOW    23:1| 0.1|| 5.4    0.004|| 0.56     0.00|| 0.00    0.00|| 0.00   100|  0|  0

[Lookout]

One thing I'm going to be watching out for is an area of additional snow that hangs back with what looks like a surface trough extending back from the main low into sc and far eastern ga later on tonight/tomorrow morning. Nam/gfs and hires have indicated this possibility for several runs. This feature has happened before in situations like this and it's benefited my local and the upstate on a number of occassions. With 850mb temps plummeting tonight, ratios should increase with time. Although the nam/gfs show only on the order of 0.10 to 0.15 with this feature, that could actually end up being 2 to 3 more inches. I'm hoping this might make up for any mixing and warm temps today before the precip starts here.

In the other thread I made mention of doubting the nam's mid to upper 40s today and it remaining in the mid to upper 30s from north to south. However, temps have indeed warmed to 39 so low 40s do in fact look likely...despite thick cloud cover and virga. A little surprising and dissappointing considering we actually have a thick cloud cover.

Hopefully it won't really be an issue since precip rates should be rather decent right from the start which probably means it starts as a rain, sleet or snow mix over the southern half of north Ga and the upstate...despite the warmer temps. One of the reasons why is since 850s/mid levels are so cold, the actual temperature of the snowflake will be pretty cold which should allow a longer survivor rate to the surface. The lower the actual temp of the snowflake falling into the warmer surface air, the better the odds of it reaching the ground.

Dewpoints aren't terribly low, which is obviously not ideal, but dynamical processes along with what little evaporational cooling takes place should put it over the top. Those of us to the south of the main snow axis now hope anyway.

[ams30721us]

Can someone explain FFC's logic to me....I call in report the viewers reports and basic totals of our in NW GA of 2-3 inches everywhere...with what looks to be atleast 4 more hours of 1"/hr rates coming and they say totals on track and they are only forecasting 1-3 here!!!????

[ncgolfguy]

36 deg. and waiting on the returns to reach here. The ruc has it in a couple hours.

35.8 at Fallston we have had some snow on and off. I think my thermometer is a little on the high side though. Did you know this was your 1000th post!

[Pilotwx]

Started snowing here about 30 min ago.

Good luck to all!

[BullCityWx]

KAKH   NAM MOS GUIDANCE   12/25/2010  1200 UTC
DT /DEC  25/DEC  26                /DEC  27                /DEC  28
HR   18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12
N/X                    31          38          24          39    22
TMP  35 36 34 34 34 34 33 34 35 35 32 31 30 29 27 30 36 38 30 27 25
DPT  28 30 31 29 28 28 28 29 28 26 25 20 17 17 17 17 16 15 17 14 16
CLD  OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK CL SC SC SC FW CL CL CL
WDR  06 05 00 04 02 03 03 03 36 33 36 35 33 32 33 33 31 32 33 33 27
WSP  04 03 00 05 06 10 09 10 09 06 08 07 06 06 04 11 12 10 04 02 01
P06        89    91    88    69     3     3     0     0     0  0  0
P12                    95          69           4           0     0
Q06         2     2     1     1     0     0     0     0     0  0  0
Q12                     3           1           0           0     0
T06      2/ 1  2/ 3  1/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 0  0/ 3  0/ 1  0/11  0/ 2
T12            2/ 3        1/ 0        2/ 0        0/ 3     1/11
SNW                     4                       1                 0
CIG   6  4  3  3  3  3  2  2  3  6  6  7  7  8  8  8  8  8  8  8  8
VIS   7  5  4  4  5  7  7  4  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7  7
OBV   N BR BR BR BR  N  N BR  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N

so the NAM is forecasting anywhere from 5-8" on the MOS

[tazaroo]

I know its nowcast time but unfortunately the new GFS went a little east and seemed slightly weeker. Still good but hope this is not a last minute trend. Moisture was a little less also for many.