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Christmas Storm VII

Cold Rain

By Cold Rain,
in Southeastern States

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crossthread

crossthread

Posted
Posted

Check out this RECENTLY ADDED DISCO!

Short term /Sunday through Sunday night/...

as of 3 AM Sunday...rapidly deepening low pressure will pass

over a hundred miles east of the coastal waters Sunday morning on

its way up to the New England coastline in a couple days. (MY EDIT is ithe Low trying to "stall?) The low

will meet the definition of a meteorological 'bomb' as it will be

deepening at a rate of greater than 1 millibar per hour for a

period of 24 hours from this evening through Sunday evening.

Strong north winds Sunday morning will back to the northwest with

speeds 25-30 knots expected. Rain Sunday morning will change to

snow...perhaps even out beyond 20 miles from shore! :wub: Drying...but

continued very cold winds will continue Monday into Monday night.

JUST UP! Elizabetmtown reporting: 33 °F Light Snow3:00 AM ESTthats like 50 miles from Me... :hug:

AND:::

Ilm watches/warnings/advisories...

SC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for scz046.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for scz017-

023-024-032-033-034-039.

NC...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ncz087-096-

097-099>101.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

Looks like the precip is just about to end here in Lexington before this thing goes nuts. Blah. Bed time.

The Euro did verify very far out with it's bomb scenario though and at 2:50 AM. the buoy sitting just outside KCHS recorded 998.3mb and if you ask me, I'm sure it got to 997 at least.

EDIT: EDISTO - 41 NM Southeast of Charleston, SC was the buoy site!

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DLI4SCwx

DLI4SCwx

Posted
Posted

Looks like the precip is just about to end here in Lexington before this thing goes nuts. Blah. Bed time.

The Euro did verify very far out with it's bomb scenario though and at 2:50 AM. the buoy sitting just outside KCHS recorded 998.3mb and if you ask me, I'm sure it got to 997 at least.

According to someone on here, they said if it bombs like it is right now. It should cause it to pivot and cause the precip. to expand back to the North and West of the SLP. So, you actually may not be done. Also, the RUC looks pretty good for I-85 east.

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

According to someone on here, they said if it bombs like it is right now. It should cause it to pivot and cause the precip. to expand back to the North and West of the SLP. So, you actually may not be done. Also, the RUC looks pretty good for I-85 east.

I mean, it's freaking coming down so hard here right now.. but I use GRLEVEL3 radar and I see what you're talking about... but I'm just really iffy. I see the pivot taking place and it looks to basically send it away from Lexington and basically keep us dry. So even if it went more Northwest it's still moving up the coast and in theory seems like it would kind of skip over me. I guess we could get some back building going on.

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DLI4SCwx

DLI4SCwx

Posted
Posted

I mean, it's freaking coming down so hard here right now.. but I use GRLEVEL3 radar and I see what you're talking about... but I'm just really iffy. I see the pivot taking place and it looks to basically send it away from Lexington and basically keep us dry. So even if it went more Northwest it's still moving up the coast and in theory seems like it would kind of skip over me. I guess we could get some back building going on.

Superjames1992 just said that there is backbuilding commencing as we speak in NW SC and in the NC foothills. So maybe that's good for us. IDK

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if my GRLEVEL3 either a) is right and is just way more detailed... or B) had a glitch.. i mean.. this thing just lit up precip like all over the place for two frames... it literally looked like a bomb exploding over here in the "KCLX" radar site. The national maps don't look like that though.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I'm wondering if my GRLEVEL3 either a) is right and is just way more detailed... or B) had a glitch.. i mean.. this thing just lit up precip like all over the place for two frames... it literally looked like a bomb exploding over here in the "KCLX" radar site. The national maps don't look like that though.

National composite radars are hit-and-miss, so I think your radar is correct. This thing is bombing, so crazy things are happening. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Per the RUC simulated projected radar returns and confirmed by the gfs and Euro qpf, I'm optimistic about seeing snow falling here in Savannah, a rare treat, later today, especially around 10am-2pm. Qpf's are from 0.08" on the 6z gfs to 0.12" on the 0z Euro. The qpf may be overdone, but the overall model data in combo with the very encouraging current radar returns over NE GA/NW SC moving SEward just in advance of the strong and unseasonably cold 500 mb low tell me that a rare snowfall with WNW winds is quite possible starting late morning here and in surrounding areas. I'm even hoping a little will stick, but not counting on that. Actually, I haven't witnessed snow to fall in Savannah since 1986 as best as I can recall since I wasn't here during the 12/1989, 3/1993, 2/1996, and 2/2010 snows and I didn't see any snow fall during the couple of very minor flurry events of the last few years.

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eyewall

eyewall

Posted
Posted

It seems in the end with the exception of underestimating last night in the foothills / Western Piedmont I am happy to say my forecast was pretty good. I am going to study this case some when it is all done and learn from it for sure. Also I learned that I still have an inner weenie and that can get in the way of the scientist all too often.

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Isopycnic

Isopycnic

Posted
Posted

It seems in the end with the exception of underestimating last night in the foothills / Western Piedmont I am happy to say my forecast was pretty good. I am going to study this case some when it is all done and learn from it for sure. Also I learned that I still have an inner weenie and that can get in the way of the scientist all too often.

Weirdman bumped your inner weenie.

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CoolBreeze

CoolBreeze

Posted
Posted

Well, Cold Rain really did do a great job keeping these threads going through out this fantastic snow event !!! I suspect that far more people are happy with the results that we ever expected. So many times one area of the region gets snow at the expense of another, but this time most everyone got snow-satisfaction !!! A job well done Cold Rain !!! Snowman.gifSnowman.gifSnowman.gif

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Wow

Wow

Posted
Posted

****ing piece of **** storm, really. And why the hell can't we ever get solid precip shields in winter storms anymore? It's always weak bands that fall apart or move away. We get snow in 20-45 minute bursts, maybe an hour or two if we are lucky. Meanwhile, Hickory snows all day and racks up 8" with marginal temps. It's really amazing, isn't it?

You got over 20" in 2000 while hky got zero. I haven't seen a foot in 22 years and I only vaguely remember it. Take you tantrums elsewhere.

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