crossthread Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I'm no Met but if you look on the WV you can see the best lift going off shore. But, wait a minute look at the last few frames and you can see the Low getting ready to go off the coast near FL. GA east coast. Now take a look @ the flow now turning north northwest the last few frames also. I think they are changing their forecast a little too early. We will see? Also there is going to be a lull, or dry slot during this change from Gulf to Atlantic, remember it's source of moisture has been temp. interrupted by crossing land, and it is a delayed effect. http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html I noticed that also Pilotwx, with the Map provided, plus anoher I looked at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 This may or may not be the case but if that low over performs and is a little west it makes all the difference, however I GSP and RAH. It looks like the heavier returns in central SC may be pivoting enough to clip us on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I noticed that also Pilotwx, with the Map provided, plus anoher I looked at... Big question I have is will the low follow the plum east OTS or will it still ride up the coast and back fill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Here's a link that shows the frontogenesis (purple circles) that was discussed about in the mesoscale discussions. Looks like this will basically move almost parallel to the coast along the baroclinic zone and this is whenwe could get our heavy snow in the circled area. As that approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rwiwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wathching water vapor and radar returns. It appears the storm is starting to get its act together to the south and southwest of my area with increasingly impresssive returns starting to show down in the land of the sandlappers mid state. Ceilings have been dropping all night with only a sprinkle at times.So officially no white Christmas here but I will gladly accept a repeat of the December 26 2004 snow that gave us 6" here in Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakeforest22890 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Praying now that this stretches a little further west and hits Winston, not sure if it will or not. It's still snowing pretty constantly here though and we've got 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 5 inches in wake forrest ??? Nothing on the ground in Knightdale Praying now that this stretches a little further west and hits Winston, not sure if it will or not. It's still snowing pretty constantly here though and we've got 5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Praying now that this stretches a little further west and hits Winston, not sure if it will or not. It's still snowing pretty constantly here though and we've got 5"+ amazing that we got nearly half a foot out of the first portion of this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 5 inches in wake forrest ??? Nothing on the ground in Knightdale Winston-Salem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wakeforest22890 Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 amazing that we got nearly half a foot out of the first portion of this storm! Definitely is. It's going to be hard to ever top this Christmas weather-wise. If we get in on the second part that would just be too much! And yeah I'm in Winston-Salem. The Wake Forest part is the university not the city, can be confusing on here I see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Noticed Jacksonville at 1002.9mb and winds out of the south at midnight. Seems stronger and slower than modeled. I'm I reading that right? If so, sounds like good news for Central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For the Triad people - just watched News 14 Carolina. Monty was live (mentioned it was 12:01 AM) and he stated that there was still a "couple more inches of snow" coming to the Triad area. He seems to think the low coming up the coast will hug close enough to clip us. I guess that's in-line with what is being said here from other sources too. I'm happy with my 5" here, but I'll take more - especially if it means the people down east get a lot too !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Noticed Jacksonville at 1002.9mb and winds out of the south at midnight. Seems stronger and slower than modeled. I'm I reading that right? If so, sounds like good news for Central NC. If our low is indeed 1002mb it is deepening rapidly. Very good news for eastern nc and sc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Radar is blowing up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Down to 1004mb http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=18&parm=pmsl&underlay=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolBreeze Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 For the Triad of NC: I watched Monty again just now. He has snow moving back west by 4AM all the way to near I-77 !. He nows says an additional 2-4 inches by the time it decreases by mid-morning. I'm really surprised. Any mets care to analyze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Down to 1004mb http://www.spc.noaa....pmsl&underlay=1 It's below 1002.9 now per buoy out of brunswick ga i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 If our low is indeed 1002mb it is deepening rapidly. Very good news for eastern nc and sc Looks like it will make more of a lightening ride up the coast to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like it will make more of a lightening ride up the coast to me. What makes you think that? It's JUST exiting off the coast, the thing isn't flying off the coast to the north by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 It's about where it was predicted to be. Everything is setting up nicely right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Girl Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Merry Chirstmas to the best Crew ever!!!!! At about 7:30 tonight we went to see Christmas lights it was a drive through type thing and it was raining with big snow flakes and we got some pretty awesome pics of the lights and the snow falling. then it was just rain for the longest and I was like when is it ever gonna start to snow and I promise I went outside and said my prayers and then I asked to please let us all see snow and let the ground get white. And not even 5 min after that the rain had turned to All snow. And that was about 15 min ago. YAY!!!! Im gonna get some rest and wake up around 7 or so and watch the heavy snow. I cant wait to see it in the daylight. We hardly ever get daytime snows where it is heavy so Im really hoping when I get up it will be pouring like buckets.. Good Luck to you All and Thanks to the awesome SE Mets and the very knowledgable SE posters that have tracked this thing for us. I learn so much from you all and Im on this forum so much it really seems like Im close to everyone one here even though we dont even know each other I feel a close bond between all of us I feel like I have some great friends on this board!!! Merry Chirstmas to All and to All a Good Night!!!!!! Sniow Girl!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VeronicaCorningstone Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Looks like it will make more of a lightening ride up the coast to me. And your basis for this is....? Care to share your reasonings? Mets and other knowledgeable people on here haven't mentioned this in the past, and have actually said the opposite - that it would move more slowly as it strengthens, if I recall correctly. Seriously, I'd like to know, if your reason is based on sound meteorologic data and knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What makes you think that? It's JUST exiting off the coast, the thing isn't flying off the coast to the north by any means. Doubt I get 6-10 out of this thing in the Triangle, but I might if it slows down and hugs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 What makes you think that? It's JUST exiting off the coast, the thing isn't flying off the coast to the north by any means. Yeah if anything the best snows dont arrive in NC till 6-9am at least along and east of RAH/I-95 and man it looks like it is gonna snow its tail off. Going to be places east of I-95 with 10-15" unless something crazy like a dryslot from hell happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Dude. If this thing is 1002.9mb off GA as one poster said, then we are in business. If it bombs like it looks it very well may it will crawl up the coast while absolutely obliterating central/eastern sc.nc with HEAVY snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Actually, I don't think you'll see much dry slotting now as it is fully forming. However, you are correct..."east of I-95". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 I hope you guys down east get blasted. Even if I don't get another flake I couldn't be happier. If you would have told me snow from noon - midnight on Christmas.... I would have said yeah right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Dude. If this thing is 1002.9mb off GA as one poster said, then we are in business. If it bombs like it looks it very well may it will crawl up the coast while absolutely obliterating central/eastern sc.nc with HEAVY snow. Would the areas for this to happen look to be the areas in the pink circle on the graphic posted a few pages back? Got around an inch for the first band and would love to have some from the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncwxlvr Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Down to 1004mb http://www.spc.noaa....pmsl&underlay=1 If you turn on the surface obs on that site, you'll notice that Jacksonville is at 1002.9 with winds out of the south and Brunswick is at 1004.1 with winds out of the north. Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted December 26, 2010 Share Posted December 26, 2010 Wouldn't strengthening and deeper low pressure causee it to wind-up and move faster. Not a met, just using some sound logic here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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