Christmas Storm VII

[DopplerWx]

I guess the snow we have had so far here is just a warm up. Sounds like the good stuff should be coming in overnight when the low bombs off the coast. RAH still calling for 3 to 6 with some areas getting 6 to 8.

I think you're sitting pretty Brick. The latest ruc pops a def band from me through central NC @12hrs. This is only the beginning for you I think.

[sctvman]

Channel 24 in Charleston goes conservative. They say the most anyone will see is two to three inches well inland (Manning, Greeleyville and other areas). The 1-2" line was down to US 17 in western Charleston County.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Already is, look at the Thicknesses crashing on the back side...

http://w1.spc.woc.no...r=17&parm=thck#

Models have likely underdone QPF in SC and NC based on current radar and trends, at-least for areas in the Coastal Plain, 1004mb crossing FL now, exiting around Brunswick Ga, and radar is responding accordingly, this is a Big Storm! Atlantic is also starting to get very active with the ILM and MHX radar showing very strong storms offshore.

Thats beautiful man. How close to the se coast do you think the slp can stay? I suspect there will be a good deal of moisture flung inland for at least parts of GA, SC and NC.

[fig]

Started seeing some light rain here in Wilmington...I can't help but wonder just how long it'll take for temps to get below freezing (sitting at 42 now ) because it seems like everyone's calling for an inch here...if I could eek out 2" I'd be happy as a pig in....

[NEGa]

Hey Mark, got my 1" White Christmas!

I have to say it was a success now!

congrats!! is it still snowing? getting some passing flurries now but the accumulating snow seems over (and the one in tn doesnt look to make it to here, but thats ok )

winds have picked up a little and the street is sort of slippery now with snow/ice.

[VeronicaCorningstone]

Already is, look at the Thicknesses crashing on the back side...

http://w1.spc.woc.no...r=17&parm=thck#

Models have likely underdone QPF in SC and NC based on current radar and trends, at-least for areas in the Coastal Plain, 1004mb crossing FL now, exiting around Brunswick Ga, and radar is responding accordingly, this is a Big Storm! Atlantic is also starting to get very active with the ILM and MHX radar showing very strong storms offshore.

Encouraging news I couldn't help but get mildly discouraged a while ago hearing about those to the west of us getting snow, though I know the bulk of ours would come from the coastal. Looking forward to the obs in the next 12 hours from the eastern Carolinas.

[Shawn]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ktnf1 just zoom out the little Google map on the page and you will see all the different reading sites. This is going to be more accurate than the SPC meso page right now. Here's hoping this thing goes sub 1000 off the CHS coast like the Euro depicted a few days ago!

[WidreMann]

Brendan, et al. any thoughts on the apparent snow hole in central SC? Is that just b/c the radar is down or is it a legitimate concern? I'm worried because after this band moves through, we might get a dry slot for a bit, cutting down, as usual, on totals.

[eyewall]

White Christmas fail here and RAH cut us back to 1-2 total when it finally changes.

[wakeforest22890]

Brendan, et al. any thoughts on the apparent snow hole in central SC? Is that just b/c the radar is down or is it a legitimate concern? I'm worried because after this band moves through, we might get a dry slot for a bit, cutting down, as usual, on totals.

Yeah I bet it completely misses your house but drills the rest of the state. Chill out man.

[Jet Stream Rider]

Surface level pressure change to see the likely path of the low. What is the nature of the pressure going up just on hte inland side of the low? Is that due primarily to an increase in dynamics with the deepening low?

Nm - that must have been a data error as it has changed now. Thought that looked a bit odd!

[Shawn]

Yeah I bet it completely misses your house but drills the rest of the state. Chill out man.

The radar site is down.. but... the RUC is proving badly wrong right now. Very badly wrong.

EDIT: Already flurries mixing in in CAE slowly.

[CaryWx]

Starting to have my doubts about accumulations here in the Triangle.

[NEGa]

just checked the ruc, looks like there may be a couple of hours lull, then the precip comes back into ne and east ga from the east as the storm heads away

[packbacker]

White Christmas fail here and RAH cut us back to 1-2 total when it finally changes.

Yikes, I have been dropped to 2-5.

[wakeforest22890]

Was the RUC the sluggish one on precipitation or the one with a lot of precipitation? I can't keep them straight anymore. What can we expect to see moving forward in the Foothills and Central Piedmont out towards Raleigh? Raleigh still looks pretty good.

[ncskywarn]

Starting to have my doubts about accumulations here in the Triangle.

Yeah me also and NWS Raleigh just cut down on the snow totals also

[tazaroo]

eyewall I know boundary layer temps have been bad in SP and my way also, Ramseur, do you not see any good trends with the low being deeper than forecast and the latest Ruc keeping precip around until11 am or so.

Would not the low, if it is deepening faster, slow some and through more moisture further west in the Carolina than the current models have been showing, Nam, Gfs?

Just trying to look for anything positive since this is a little bit of a bust at least so far but our way but the event isn't over yet.

[NCWeSU]

Best dynamics don't move into the triangle until well after midnight. It's been this way all day. I wasn't expecting much of anything yet.

[DopplerWx]

eyewall I know boundary layer temps have been bad in SP and my way also, Ramseur, do you not see any good trends with the low being deeper than forecast and the latest Ruc keeping precip around until11 am or so.

Would not the low, if it is deepening faster, slow some and through more moisture further west in the Carolina than the current models have been showing, Nam, Gfs?

Just trying to look for anything positive since this is a little bit of a bust at least so far but our way but the event isn't over yet.

The low isnt even off the coast yet and your calling it a bust? Come on man! Be patient!

[eyewall]

eyewall I know boundary layer temps have been bad in SP and my way also, Ramseur, do you not see any good trends with the low being deeper than forecast and the latest Ruc keeping precip around until11 am or so.

Would not the low, if it is deepening faster, slow some and through more moisture further west in the Carolina than the current models have been showing, Nam, Gfs?

Just trying to look for anything positive since this is a little bit of a bust at least so far but our way but the event isn't over yet.

Our hope now basically lies with the deformation zone in the early morning hours. Accums uncertain at this point. I am wondering why RAH scaled back but no updated disco.

[WidreMann]

The radar site is down.. but... the RUC is proving badly wrong right now. Very badly wrong.

EDIT: Already flurries mixing in in CAE slowly.

What's the RUC doing wrong? It didn't show precip in east-central NC until after midnight.

[Shawn]

What's the RUC doing wrong? It didn't show precip in east-central NC until after midnight.

The pressure of this thing is stronger to begin with. The super heavy bands for the upsate/nc weren't totally right.. i do not trust the ruc now especially for precip totals.

[Lookout]

congrats!! is it still snowing? getting some passing flurries now but the accumulating snow seems over (and the one in tn doesnt look to make it to here, but thats ok )

winds have picked up a little and the street is sort of slippery now with snow/ice.

Actually, I wouldn't say the accumulating snow is over for you just yet. Nam/gfs, and ruc have all indicated a little back building toward morning and scattered to widespread snow showers/light snow for a good part of the day tomorrow for northeast ga and into the south carolina. Not sure how much will actually fall but with such cold mid level temps and plenty of humidity even above 700mb, as well as the big upper low moving through, it stands to reason that some additional light accumulations at the least is possible. It really wouldn't take much "liquid" to make for some light accumulations due to how cold it will be. And it can't be ruled out that some areas couldn't pick up a little more.

I agree with the others, the radar is impressive with our storm. If only this thing had bombed about 12 hours earlier. Of course I have asked that a lot of times when the carolinas have gotten creamed by these coastal storms.

I know if i was in eastern nc, I would be excited as hell looking at that radar and all those returns coming at me.

[WidreMann]

The pressure of this thing is stronger to begin with. The super heavy bands for the upsate/nc weren't totally right.. i do not trust the ruc now especially for precip totals.

I don't think you are ever supposed to trust the RUC for precip totals. I think it's only good for SLP trends and other short term stuff. Its precip is almost always off.

[Brick Tamland]

Sounds like some folks in the Triangle are worried. I don't think the good precip is coming in until overnight and tomorrow morning.

[Shawn]

I don't think you are ever supposed to trust the RUC for precip totals. I think it's only good for SLP trends and other short term stuff. Its precip is almost always off.

I think... going outisde.. seeing small flurries mix in already... in Lexington, SC... we are going to be okay man. I know for a fact this thing's pressure is lower than initialized by the new GFS just now and the RUC.

[packbacker]

Sounds like some folks in the Triangle are worried. I don't think the good precip is coming in until overnight and tomorrow morning.

But, RAH just dropped the snow totals for the area from 3-6 to 2-5, not much, but they must see something to trigger this.

[magpiemaniac]

But, RAH just dropped the snow totals for the area from 3-6 to 2-5, not much, but they must see something to trigger this.

RAH is always the last one at the party and the first one to leave.

[NEGa]

Actually, I wouldn't say the accumulating snow is over for you just yet. Nam/gfs, and ruc have all indicated a little back building toward morning and scattered to widespread snow showers/light snow for a good part of the day tomorrow for northeast ga and into the south carolina. Not sure how much will actually fall but with such cold mid level temps and plenty of humidity even above 700mb, as well as the big upper low moving through, it stands to reason that some additional light accumulations at the least is possible. It really wouldn't take much "liquid" to make for some light accumulations due to how cold it will be. And it can't be ruled out that some areas couldn't pick up a little more.

I agree with the others, the radar is impressive with our storm. If only this thing had bombed about 12 hours earlier. Of course I have asked that a lot of times when the carolinas have gotten creamed by these coastal storms.

I know if i was in eastern nc, I would be excited as hell looking at that radar and all those returns coming at me.

i noticed that when i finally checked the models just to see what was going on. i wasnt expecting to see it but i certainly wont complain