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Christmas Storm VII


Cold Rain

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No please do, you always have great information, Widre is just playing the role of the Grinch now, after being so positive about this until today.

Yeah.. Im jewish so today is just another day for me. Everyone needs to stop worrying about not seeing snow whent Its Christmas. Enjoy it! The snow is coming.

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Not arguing with you anymore. The next frames show 30+ DBZ over your house and everyone central and eastern NC. I dont even live there anymore... I have blizzard warnings and I still post in the SE thread. Maybe I shouldnt anymore.

Don't feed the troll man...I don't see why people keep complaining, they should know if they're in the triangle they should expect the majority of what they get overnight into Sunday...they are upset others are getting their 3"+ totals now and starting to line up on the cliff...hilarious, actually.:rolleyes:

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Not arguing with you anymore. The next frames show 30+ DBZ over your house and everyone central and eastern NC. I dont even live there anymore... I have blizzard warnings and I still post in the SE thread. Maybe I shouldnt anymore.

You should definitely NOT argue with Widre anymore, but you definitely SHOULD post in the SE forum.

Should we worry at all about the convection robbing the moisture transport? Or is this not one of the situations where that's a problem?

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Yeah.. Im jewish so today is just another day for me. Everyone needs to stop worrying about not seeing snow whent Its Christmas. Enjoy it! The snow is coming.

I'm an old man and have only seen it snow on xmas when I go somewhere else. Certainly hope that it will here, and cannot wait till the returns on radar turn into something here at the surface. Thanks

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Not arguing with you anymore. The next frames show 30+ DBZ over your house and everyone central and eastern NC. I dont even live there anymore... I have blizzard warnings and I still post in the SE thread. Maybe I shouldnt anymore.

Please Please! Ignore. Really enjoy reading your posts as we move along with this system. very informative and I've actually been learning some stuff today :weight_lift:

Thank you!

- To keep this post on topic, found another rain/snow line radar from WCNC.. not sure how accurate this is.. but it looks awfully similar to GREarth.

dma.gif

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An example of how we still don't get much snow? I don't know why there is all that precip in the foothills and mountains. Certainly not b/c of the track of the low.

the low track is not that bad for us. just offshore is pretty good here. how is it not gonna snow in the triangle with a strengthening 850 low just east of you later tonight? unless this storm defies the laws of science, you should be good.

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For the life of me, I don't know why you are permitted to hijack threads with all this nonsense. Are you a part owner of this site or something?

An example of how we still don't get much snow? I don't know why there is all that precip in the foothills and mountains. Certainly not b/c of the track of the low.

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Look what I did. I got everyone to come together and say how much they appreciate SBU posting here despite living up north. I bring joy and togetherness after all.

Widre, you sorry cuss you! I would miss if you were not here giving us your dark cloud opinion. Frankly, it keeps me grounded and I don't even live close to you! LOL!

....on another note, Widre is often as right as he is wrong. Seems like a good batting average, even IF he had a MET tag. ;)

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about 5 inches here as darkness descends on the foothills, temps is finally down to freezing and the RADAR is looking better :) I think we will end up with around 8, but if a good band sets up over McDowell then more

EDIT- oops meant to put this in the obs thread... my apologies

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Well I just got caught up on my reading. I've been celebrating Christmas with the family and haven't been paying to close of attention with what is going on. After catching up on my reading I see this is a normal SE snowstorm thread. Radar looks good, nice model agreement, and Widre doing his normal crying about how he's going to miss another one. The sad thing is he always ends up w/ more than others. Good to see things haven't changed for another year.

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So happy for all my fellow southeast friends seeing a rare Christmas snow. Sure wish I was in Raleigh tonight, but alas I am here on the Gulf! Enjoy it!

We miss you up here AL!!! Merry Christmas from your old stomping ground. MHX upping totals here, 3-6" with the morning package, and 5-9" with the afternoon update. :snowman: WSW in effect :popcorn:

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Raleigh is also upping totals for the Triad region based on the 1-3 inches that has already fallen. I'm just south of that area and have seen some wet flakes but absolutely no accumulation so far. It looks like a lull for about 2 more hours for me based on current radar loop.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

544 PM EST SAT DEC 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF OF

MEXICO TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... THEN

REACH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY. VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW

THE STORM. A WARM-UP WILL BEGIN THURSDAY LASTING WELL INTO NEXT

WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 545 PM SATURDAY...

WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL NC...

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE TRIAD. INCREASING SNOW TOTALS

TO 6 INCHES WITH SOME HIGH AMOUNTS. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE

WINTER STORM WARNING. UPDATING THE GRIDS AND OTHER FORECAST

PRODUCTS. THIS UPDATE IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW

ALREADY ON THE GROUND. MAY NEED TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS BEYOND THE

FORECAST 6 INCHES IN THE TRIAD LATER THIS EVENING. WILL ASSESS THIS OVER

THE COMING HOURS.

FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS... AS

CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM --

WITH WIDESPREAD THREE TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW -- OVER ALL OF CENTRAL

NC THROUGH SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HIGHER

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND SIX TO EIGHT INCHES... MAINLY ACROSS

PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...

AROUND A LINE FROM NEAR LEXINGTON AND ESPECIALLY POINTS EAST

NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TRIANGLE AND ROCKY MOUNT/ROANOKE RAPIDS.

THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING INTO SOUTHERN VA AND THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY A 100+ KT

WSW UPPER JET STREAK FROM THE MID SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY... AND AN

ATTENDING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE/TROUGH AXIS CENTERED

AROUND H85 PER 12Z ANALYSES. THE LATEST NWP GUIDANCE IS IN

REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT (FINALLY) WITH MASS AND PRECIPITATION

FIELDS. THEY SUGGEST THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GOM JUST

SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FL (DOWN TO AROUND 1008 MB AT 19Z) AND ATTENDING

A WELL-DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO

INTENSIFY AND TRACK ENE THIS EVENING AND THEN NE ALONG THE GULF

STREAM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF

NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY AND RESULTANT BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT.

WHILE WE DO EXPECT THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFICATION TO HOLD THE

SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND SAID LOW TRACK OVER THE GULF STREAM... WE

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN GOM AS IT

RACES ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. THIS CONVECTION COULD

CONCEIVABLY PULL THE SURFACE LOW ON A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AND CAUSE

LESS IMPACT OVER CENTRAL NC... BUT THIS AGAIN REMAINS A MUCH LESS

LIKELY... ALTERNATE SCENARIO TO OUR OTHERWISE RELATIVELY HIGH

CONFIDENCE FORECAST.

NWP MODEL AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGESTS THE AFOREMENTIONED

PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL ACCORDINGLY EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME

MORE MERIDIONAL IN RESPONSE TO BACKING OF THE FLOW ALOFT THROUGH

MIDNIGHT.. AFTER WHICH TIME THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION/COMMA HEAD

OVER AL AND GA WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY INTO EAST-CENTRAL NC...

ROUGHLY FROM RALEIGH EASTWARD. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS ARE

EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND THREE OR FOUR TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER

THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT TO AROUND A SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE

NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES -- WHICH HAVE CLIMBED

INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES TODAY-- WILL LIKELY

ULTIMATELY LIMIT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AROUND THREE OR FOUR

INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GOLDSBORO... FAYETTEVILLE... AND

WADESBORO AREAS... WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS (FOUR TO SIX INCHES AND

LOCALLY HIGHER) TO THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL TREND

FROM AROUND 10:1 EARLY THIS EVENING TO CLOSER TO 15:1 OVERNIGHT.

LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S NW TO AROUND FREEZING OR SO TOWARD THE

SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN.

SUNDAY: THE MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE NC

TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC COASTS... SO WE EXPECT THE WIDESPREAD... HIGHER

INTENSITY SNOW TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE

MIDDAY HOURS... LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN

INTO THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WE WILL HOLD A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE

OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY AREAWIDE... HOWEVER...

AS THE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PIVOTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH

TEMPERATURES WITH A PROJECTED FRESH SNOWPACK OVER THE REGION WILL

STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. BLUSTERY WITH A

GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE. -MWS-- End Changed Discussion --

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