Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interesting to note the ruc continues the trend of other models to keep an axis of higher 700mb and snow all the way back to eastern ga, as far west as near atlanta through at least 12z tomorrow, in part due to a surface trough that extends northwest from the low into the upstate/ne ga. Ruc/nam are light with snow here but these little meso scale features can produce some surprises. And it wouldn't take much either with 850mb temps crashing. Interesting to note also the ruc drops the 500mb upper low as far south as north ga/alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does this mean that we should begin to see the precip shield expand? We should certainly see rates go up. NOtice the increased reflectivities in Georgia. It could be bright banding though, hard to tell. As we head into the evening we should a more consolidated, intense, organized looking area of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that happens a lot. I'm still very upbeat though. For those in panic mode about the radar over western Carolinas and ne GA region, this still is advertised now on RUC , much like the NAM had it yesterday where we're probably the last ones to lose our snow. The pinwheel of 700mb RH will rotate in this region through atleast 7 am tomorrow, so when you think the radar shows it comng to an end, it will just continue on and on. Happens a lot with coastals that develop in the northern Gulf and exit GA coast. The precip back east will go up the coast, but cyclonic spin usually remains in the lee of the Apps for a while longer as a weak cutoff at 7h meanders and fills. So we should get the double-whammy, first good heavy snow rates overnight, and then dwindling lighter snows through early morning. Could rack up some decent totals. Didn't see you post this but I just posted something about that too. Great minds think alike :thumpsup: I'm hopefull this will at least lead to another inch or two. It wouldn't take much, maybe 0.05 to 0.10 with such cold mid level temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 So do you still think the Triangle has a chance to see at least 2"? I'm seriously having doubts now about even that. The triangle still looks good for 3-7 inches to me. I'm not sure what you're looking at but I think the best dynamics come through after midnight with potentially heavy snow early Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interestingly, downstream from here, BMX says it is considering canceling all advisories for it's FA in the next package. Maybe premature with current redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You folks in western nc realize you're wishing to screw eastern nc by wishing this thing even further west, don't be greedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblzchance in CLT Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 that happens a lot. I'm still very upbeat though. For those in panic mode about the radar over western Carolinas and ne GA region, this still is advertised now on RUC , much like the NAM had it yesterday where we're probably the last ones to lose our snow. The pinwheel of 700mb RH will rotate in this region through atleast 7 am tomorrow, so when you think the radar shows it comng to an end, it will just continue on and on. Happens a lot with coastals that develop in the northern Gulf and exit GA coast. The precip back east will go up the coast, but cyclonic spin usually remains in the lee of the Apps for a while longer as a weak cutoff at 7h meanders and fills. So we should get the double-whammy, first good heavy snow rates overnight, and then dwindling lighter snows through early morning. Could rack up some decent totals. Sorry to hear about your Mom - best wishes and prayers to you and your family and thanks for all that you provide to this board. Concerning this spinning axis of good snow and the 850 low: When you say western Carolinas where would you think the eastern boundary of this enhancement would fall? TIA and Merry Christmas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You folks in western nc realize you're wishing to screw eastern nc by wishing this thing even further west, don't be greedy We were screwed anyway. Further east would just mean weaker coastal, warmer and less precip. There was no way we could win except for the Euro's old solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 looks like it might be redeveloping in alabama on the last few frames Was thinking the same thing, looks to be a bit of backfilling. Either way, I'm set, closing in on 6", so if it cut off right now I'm 100% happy. I just hope some of you guys east and south get your due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are the radar returns out of BMX looking like they are changing orientation to more of a NE component versus earlier in this loop? This could be a case of wishful thinking on my part so I am curious what y'all think. Thanks! http://radar.weather...id=bmx&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Interestingly, downstream from here, BMX says it is considering canceling all advisories for it's FA in the next package. Maybe premature with current redevelopment? yeah, I'm on the AL/GA border....and don't see that all the precip will be out of AL in an hour and a half....any of you mets want to comment on their thinking? NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 108 PM CST SAT DEC 25 2010 .UPDATE...AVIATION AND TODAYS DISCUSSION. && .DISCUSSION...SNOW HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TODAY. THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS BEEN SLOW TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE GULF LOW STILL NOT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PULL DOWN COLDER AIR MASS. COLD ADVECTION SHOULD INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ONCE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF PANAMA CITY. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF FORCING CURRENTLY PRODUCING DIFFERENT TYPES OF PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST IS PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE UPPPR LOW IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD AND THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THIS AREA BY 3 PM. THE UPPER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA IS WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL EAST AND NORTHEAST OF BIRMINGHAM. THE BACK OF THE RAIN/SNOW IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING I-65...AND EXPECT THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF ACROSS EAST ALABAMA BY 3 PM. IF CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE...IT IS LIKELY THAT ALL ADVISORIES MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Didn't see you post this but I just posted something about that too. Great minds think alike :thumpsup: I'm hopefull this will at least lead to another inch or two. It wouldn't take much, maybe 0.05 to 0.10 with such cold mid level temps. Yep, we see this a lot. It happened last year in the Feb. storm, but that was extremely fine, light snow throughout. Other than that, you probably have to go back a long way to get a storm track like this, maybe the 80's, but I remember it well, and was always fascinated by the continuation of snow just when i thought it was over. By the way , just started raining here 10 minutes ago and its still all rain. Normally, I'd love to see the rain, but not this time LOL. I'm sure it will be turning soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You folks in western nc realize you're wishing to screw eastern nc by wishing this thing even further west, don't be greedy Like I said above, I'm 100% satisfied with what I've got, now let it move on to you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncgolfguy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, we see this a lot. It happened last year in the Feb. storm, but that was extremely fine, light snow throughout. Other than that, you probably have to go back a long way to get a storm track like this, maybe the 80's, but I remember it well, and was always fascinated by the continuation of snow just when i thought it was over. By the rain , just started raining here 10 minutes ago and its still all rain. Normally, I'd love to see the rain, but not this time LOL. I'm sure it will be turning soon. The shelby airport is reporting a temp of 32.2 at 2pm, do you think that is accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 .02" of rain, that's it here. Yep, only .01 here. At least I'm not losing anything much to get cooling, lol. I've lost 2 degrees to 38 now. Hope my 997' helps in the end. Glad to see the snow expanding south west of B'ham...that'll swing thru here eventually. Nice job you are doing with all the weather toys! Thanks. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 We must be talking about two different ones then. I live just west of Greenville in the Powdersville/Easley area and there was a band that went no more than a few miles north of me. Oh interesting... then you must be doing better so far with this precipitation. We have a mix here but its still rather light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z RUC probably even more robust with the precip amts. SLP significantly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yep, we see this a lot. It happened last year in the Feb. storm, but that was extremely fine, light snow throughout. Other than that, you probably have to go back a long way to get a storm track like this, maybe the 80's, but I remember it well, and was always fascinated by the continuation of snow just when i thought it was over. By the way , just started raining here 10 minutes ago and its still all rain. Normally, I'd love to see the rain, but not this time LOL. I'm sure it will be turning soon. Its weird ive heard of accumulations in Boiling Spring, Fallston, and other areas. But none here yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I looked at bufkit data for the 17Z RUC, and if it is correct here are totals for the ATL-AHN areas. The model keeps FFC area mostly rain until around 5pm, before it changes over and snow lasting through the evening into the night. Total snow up to 3.8" with 10:1 ratio. For AHN it has snow beginning around 3pm lasting into the night time hours. Total snow 4-6" with 10:1 ratios, again if the 17Z RUC was correct. I only have the 15Z RUC for KATL which begins snow around 2-3pm and showing up to 4" of the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 18z RUC probably even more robust with the precip amts. SLP significantly stronger. Heavy snow coming down now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I looked at bufkit data for the 17Z RUC, and if it is correct here are totals for the ATL-AHN areas. The model keeps FFC area mostly rain until around 5pm, before it changes over and snow lasting through the evening into the night. Total snow up to 3.8" with 10:1 ratio. For AHN it has snow beginning around 3pm lasting into the night time hours. Total snow 4-6" with 10:1 ratios, again if the 17Z RUC was correct. I only have the 15Z RUC for KATL which begins snow around 2-3pm and showing up to 4" of the white stuff. But the snow will be exiting Alabama in a little over an hour according to BMX. They're probably going to drop all advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Are the radar returns out of BMX looking like they are changing orientation to more of a NE component versus earlier in this loop? This could be a case of wishful thinking on my part so I am curious what y'all think. Thanks! http://radar.weather...id=bmx&loop=yes That's from the storm system beginning to move northeast and pivoting. Flow of moisture from south/southwest instead of west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Widre settle down you have a better shot at cashing in then I do in Southern Pines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 WWA issued for the coast, including Charleston and Hilton Head. WSW upgraded to Winter Storm Warning for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 But the snow will be exiting Alabama in a little over an hour according to BMX. Look to the south/southwest for your precip. not your west. Notice the moderate/heavy band over the Atlanta area in the last frame or two moving north/northeast: http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Widre settle down you have a better shot at cashing in then I do in Southern Pines. Well, at least the snow will probably cover the ground this time. Can't say that about any of the other snow "storms" we've had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Look to the south/southwest for your precip. not your west. Notice the moderate/heavy band over the Atlanta area in the last frame or two moving north/northeast: http://radar.weather...s/full_loop.php I'm just worried that BMX says the precip will be out of AL in 1 hour, and Atlanta is only 60 miles from the AL border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Well, at least the snow will probably cover the ground this time. Can't say that about any of the other snow "storms" we've had this year. I know what you're trying to do. You're trying to get the forces of the universe to give you MORE snow because you sink into a bottomless pit of despair before the event starts. Therefore, the universe feels sorry for you and you get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Yea widre, you'll probably still see the grass poking up but seeing a light snow shower is enough right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I know what you're trying to do. You're trying to get the forces of the universe to give you MORE snow because you sink into a bottomless pit of despair before the event starts. Therefore, the universe feels sorry for you and you get more. LOL he does this every storm. And always walks away with better totals than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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