Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Merry Christmas, everyone! I hope you all are doing well on the beautiful Christmas morning. Well, this is probably going to be the last thread I start for this storm. It's been fun, and there certainly has been an amazing turn of events throughout this thing. I hope this stuff is archived because there have been some fantastic discussions and analysis from some of the best mets and weather hobbyists out there. I've certainly enjoyed reading and following along. Merry Christmas to you all, and enjoy your snow. :snowman: :snowman: PS: I guess we can use this thread for model discussion and analysis and the obs thread for actual obs. But that's just my suggestion, so feel free to do whatever you want! RAH Disco: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... HAVE UPGRADED THE INITIAL WATCH TO A WARNING AND HAVE ISSUED A WARNING FOR THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE SWUNG ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM 24 HOURS AGO WITH MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SHIFTING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXPERIENCING MAJOR DEEPENING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TODAY...TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE AFFECTING CENTRAL NC THIS PERIOD. FIRST WILL BE A S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE 850-7800MB FLOW TO BACK ADVECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS BACKING OF THE FLOW MAY ALSO ADVECT POSITIVE VORTICITY FROM GULF COAST CONVECTION INTO OUR REGION LATER TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD CAUSE AREAS OF PRECIP TO BREAK OUT AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST PREDOMINATE P-TYPE MAINLY SNOW OVER THE NW PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENT THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT...WHILE PARTIAL THICKNESSES TREND TOWARD SNOW LATE IN THE DAY..WET BULB TEMPS DO NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL SUNSET. THIS SUGGEST PRECIP MAINLY SNOW/RAIN MIX OR ALL RAIN LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDING TOWARD MORE SNOW THAN RAIN LATE. EXPECT PRECIP TO EXPAND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MODELS HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE A LITTLE TARDY WITH EASTWARD EXPANSION OF PRECIP SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS IN OUR REGION. EXPECT TO SEE A RAIN-SNOW MIX REACH THE TRIANGLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY RAIN THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN. USED A SNOW RATIO OF EITHER 8:1 OR 10:1 IN THE NW PIEDMONT AT ONSET...TRENDING TO 12:1 BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS TODAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND INTENSITY. STILL FAVOR MAX TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE. IF MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACHIEVED IN THE SE COUNTIES TODAY...THIS COULD REDUCE EXPECTED SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT/SUNDAY DUE TO A RELATIVELY WARM GROUND (THOUGH LATEST LOOK AT 4 INCH SOIL TEMPS DEPICT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S...PLENTY COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO ACCUMULATE). TONIGHT...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WHICH APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY STRING PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LIFTS NE ACROSS GA-SC IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE APPROACH PF THIS STRENGTHENING S/W WILL INDUCE RAPID SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS STRENGTHEN SYSTEM IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN DEPICTED 24 HOURS AGO, THUS THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS INTO THE EASTERN PIEDMONT-COASTAL PLAIN. THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT...SHOULD SEE PRECIP FOCUS SHIFT FROM THE WESTERN COUNTIES INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS 850MB LOW TRACKS FROM UPSTATE SC TO THE ILM VICINITY (STRENGTHENING AS IT DOES SO). POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO SET-UP OVER THE SOME PART OF CENTRAL NC ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. WHERE THIS AXIS SETS UP WILL DEFINE REGION WHERE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE SNOW AMOUNTS(IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES) MAY OCCUR. THIS PROBABILITY SEEMS HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AT THIS TIME. USED H P C LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS AND A SNOW RATIO OF 12:1 TO ACHIEVE SNOW AMOUNTS LATER TONIGHT WITH A RATIO OF 10:1 IN THE SE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT/... EXPECT MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BE IN PROGRESS AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS DEEPENING OF SURFACE LOW OCCURS JUST OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING. CROSS SECTIONS OF MOISTURE AND LIFT SUGGEST BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP LIFTING OFF TO THE NE BY AFTERNOON. WHILE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WILL DETERMINE AXIS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW...EASTERN PERIPHERY COUNTIES FROM HALIFAX TO SAMPSON STANDS THE BEST SHOT. IF SURFACE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST THEN AXIS WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR. EXPECT TO SEE A SHARP SNOW/NO SNOW OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AMOUNTS WEST OF RALEIGH TO BE OVERDONE BY AN INCH OR TWO. BUT CONSIDERING THE MAJOR SHIFT IN THE MODELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...RATHER ERROR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND PAINT A WORST CASE SCENARIO. TEMPS OFFERED BY MOS GUIDANCE APPEAR TOO WARM BY A CATEGORY AT LEAST. SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT ANY LINGERING PRECIP IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN TO DIMINISH/END PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. DUE TO DEEP CYCLONE FLOW OVER THE REGION...SKIES MAY BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH EXPECT SOME CLEARING FROM THE SW LATE IN THE NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just want to say this has been a fun storm to model watch. Was talking to Robert just last night about how this might be the most watched. Merry Christmas and let's hope the Euro really verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am still nervous because I know how these things can go wrong but also excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am still nervous because I know how these things can go wrong but also excited. Put this in otherthread but since its about to shutdown I will repost here......also I too am cautiously optimistic about this its hard to believe what may happen is about to happen If the latest qpf maps are right maybe more like 6-8" at least, I am thinking this thing is gonna crush any temp issues most everywhere and the deform band that sets up over central and eastern NC is gonna be something we havent seen in awhile. When I read stuff like this my eyes tear up, I couldnt write a better setup for my area to get just destroyed than this someone from Goldsboro up to EC is gonna get 12"+ maybe more much more if this thing really goes nuts....... from ILM THE ATLANTIC SURFACE CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS POINTING TO EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT ONCE LOW PRESSURE REACHES THESE WATERS. THEREFORE...WHEN LOW PRESSURE... CURRENTLY JUST BEGINNING ITS TREK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVES OFF THE COAST OF FL/GA THIS EVE...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. ALSO...FGEN IN THE H8-7 LAYER IS ALSO POINTING TO MORE INTENSE BANDING OF SNOW ON THE W SIDE OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE 150 MILES E OF CAPE FEAR BY END OF PERIOD... DRAWING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS IT MOVES N AND UP THE COAST. MODEL PROFILES SHOWING NEAR SATURATION IN THE CRITICAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WITH THE COLUMN COOLING SHARPLY... LASTLY AT THE COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I am still nervous because I know how these things can go wrong but also excited. Yea I feel you, things can go to crap in a heart beat. Gotta see where that low goes once it hits FL, hopefully one of us won't be caught holding the bag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Went to bed last night under nothing, woke up under a WSW for 3-6+ out of RAH. I'm not sure though, looks like the banding in the west and then in the east from the coastal might leave me in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For Dawsonwx....Wintry Mix here in Dalton now..36 degrees...(Heavy Sleet/light snow mix) Precip just started about 30 mins ago. Heavy Snow reports to my north in Chattanooga area and West in Huntsville Area. Nice Banding developing just like Ruc indicated! What a Christmas Suprise on the way! Merry Christmas Everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For Dawsonwx....Wintry Mix here in Dalton now..36 degrees...(Heavy Sleet/light snow mix) Precip just started about 30 mins ago. Heavy Snow reports to my north in Chattanooga area and West in Huntsville Area. Nice Banding developing just like Ruc indicated! What a Christmas Suprise on the way! Merry Christmas Everyone! Same to you! By the way, looks like your call of 1-3" a couple days ago for much of N GA will be right on (or even too low!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For Dawsonwx....Wintry Mix here in Dalton now..36 degrees...(Heavy Sleet/light snow mix) Precip just started about 30 mins ago. Heavy Snow reports to my north in Chattanooga area and West in Huntsville Area. Nice Banding developing just like Ruc indicated! What a Christmas Suprise on the way! Merry Christmas Everyone! Meanwhile, 30 miles to your south still awaiting the first precip to fall. Nice, thick and lowering stratus. Dalton is obscured in the distance so it is close! Merry Christmas everyone! My kids only had to wait 18 and 15 years, respectively, for a white Christmas. Little suckers are pretty lucky, wouldn't you say? LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Same to you! By the way, looks like your call of 1-3" a couple days ago for much of N GA will be right on (or even too low!). I know! I really was starting to lose hope though! lol BTW ALL SNOW NOW and look at Radar! I am too Giddy right now! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just saw Mike Moss on WRAL in Raleigh, and his map has up to 6" for the Triangle and higher amounts possible just off to the east and northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone have a good link for a water vapor loop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I must say, couldn't have asked for better conditions for mby overnight. Clear skies overnight have chilled me down to 28 and clouds are rolling in just in time to mute Ole Sol's meager early winter heating. Suspect surface temps no worse than mid thirties prior to precip onset here. That'll work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Here's your North Georgia radar http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/ffc_284.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone have a good link for a water vapor loop? http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 I must say, couldn't have asked for better conditions for mby overnight. Clear skies overnight have chilled me down to 28 and clouds are rolling in just in time to mute Ole Sol's meager early winter heating. Suspect surface temps no worse than mid thirties prior to precip onset here. That'll work! What's your location, Wild? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Does anyone have a good link for a water vapor loop? I like this one for nowcast time. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 http://www.weather.u...t=l12®ion=us Thank you very much! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 What's your location, Wild? Loganville Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 25, 2010 Author Share Posted December 25, 2010 Loganville Ga. Good deal. Good luck to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 another WV loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Less than 15 minuntes already a good dusting here in Dalton with above frz. temps still. Radar looks amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 For Dawsonwx....Wintry Mix here in Dalton now..36 degrees...(Heavy Sleet/light snow mix) Precip just started about 30 mins ago. Heavy Snow reports to my north in Chattanooga area and West in Huntsville Area. Nice Banding developing just like Ruc indicated! What a Christmas Suprise on the way! Merry Christmas Everyone! Awesome! Should be here soon. Gotta love the look of the radar back to mississippi....boom. nice northern movement to the precip. Gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just wanted to get this in here & a mod. can remove if need be. I know we have a long way to go but, Major props to Foothills on this. If I rember correctly he called this by saying watch out for the euro tonight. It then started it's run. He is on a hell of a roll this Winter! Thoughts & Prayers for his Mom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted this question to SBUWX23 in the other thread. Since it has reached it's limits I thought I would move it over here. Yea if the 6z gfs is correct the west trend can stop. If this takes a negative tilt to early is it possible this could be slightly inland causing mixing issues in the RDU area? What are your thoughts? Or is this just my inner weenie coming out? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 I posted this question to SBUWX23 in the other thread. Since it has reached it's limits I thought I would move it over here. Yea if the 6z gfs is correct the west trend can stop. If this takes a negative tilt to early is it possible this could be slightly inland causing mixing issues in the RDU area? What are your thoughts? Or is this just my inner weenie coming out? LOL You wont have mixing issues in the Triangle unless the surface low moves over FAY or RWI. Sorry but I just dont see it happening when an exploding low is pulling in cold air with heavy banding and strong forcing even if its just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 You wont have mixing issues in the Triangle unless the surface low moves over FAY or RWI. Sorry but I just dont see it happening when an exploding low is pulling in cold air with heavy banding and strong forcing even if its just inland. Thanks, I appreciate the response. Hope you have a good trip home on the 27th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Thanks, I appreciate the response. Hope you have a good trip home on the 27th! At this rate it will be the 28th as its going to be pretty bad up here too Sunday evening into Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 Just wanted to get this in here & a mod. can remove if need be. I know we have a long way to go but, Major props to Foothills on this. If I rember correctly he called this by saying watch out for the euro tonight. It then started it's run. He is on a hell of a roll this Winter! Thoughts & Prayers for his Mom. I agree and I second. Today is a day to give great thanks for everything we've been blessed with. It's easy to get caught up in the merriment of Christmas and forget what's really important. Some people aren't as fortunate as most of us are, Robert's mom being one of them. Robert, my thoughts go out to you and your mom on this Christmas day, and to everyone here, you're a great bunch of people and I'm very grateful to have found this place. Merry Christmas and God bless everyone. Now, back to the weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted December 25, 2010 Share Posted December 25, 2010 The sounding for my area on the 6z GFS shows a pretty good spike in temps right as the heaviest precip hits. The nam shows a steady drop in temps and keeps us all snow at the same time period. Is this because the GFS tracks the 850 low too close and nam doesn't or is there some other weird factor being seen by the gfs and not the nam? It obviously has me concerned but just don't know which model has it right. RUC sounding doesn't go out far enough for my area since i'm east at PGV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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