Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 A few echos are starting to show up over parts of DFW, albeit nothing impressive-looking for now. Some of CAMs are hinting the streamers coming NNE out of the Hill Country could blow up over the next few hours, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 1 hour ago, Powerball said: A few echos are starting to show up over parts of DFW, albeit nothing impressive-looking for now. Some of CAMs are hinting the streamers coming NNE out of the Hill Country could blow up over the next few hours, but we'll see. And it looks like systems are a go! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 555 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 TXC121-439-142330- /O.CON.KFWD.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-240314T2330Z/ Denton TX-Tarrant TX- 555 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN DENTON AND NORTH CENTRAL TARRANT COUNTIES... At 554 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Roanoke, or over Trophy Club, moving northeast at 20 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. This severe storm will be near... Flower Mound, Argyle, Double Oak, Northlake, Bartonville, and Corral City around 600 PM CDT. Denton and Copper Canyon around 605 PM CDT. Corinth around 615 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Westlake, Ponder, Dish, Lewisville Lake, Grapevine Lake, and Marshall Creek. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from windows. && LAT...LON 3287 9727 3295 9739 3327 9725 3307 9691 TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 213DEG 18KT 3303 9722 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted March 14 Share Posted March 14 We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Tornado in progress southwest of Little Rock in Hot Springs Village with reports of numerous homes damaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of south-central Texas and over parts of Mississippi/Alabama region. ...South-central TX... Confluent high-level flow over the middle of the CONUS will encourage surface anticyclone to settle south across the Plains today, though some weakening is expected across the southern Plains late in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak midlevel short-wave trough is approaching south TX early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance into the lower MS by 18z as associated 500mb speed max translates downstream into the central Gulf States. As a result, neutral-weak height rises are expected across south-central TX by afternoon. As this low-latitude short wave approaches higher-quality moisture, there is some concern that early-day elevated convection may develop. Several HREF members suggest isolated supercells initiate ahead of this feature. However, forecast soundings are quite capped so any activity should remain isolated. Of more concern is the strong surface heating anticipated across northeast Mexico into portions of south TX ahead of the synoptic front. Forecast soundings ahead of the boundary suggest convective temperatures will be breached as readings warm into the lower 80s. NAM sounding for DRT at 22z exhibits negligible CINH with SBCAPE on the order of 2500 J/kg with a temp/dew point of 83/62F. Strong surface-6km bulk shear and weak frontal convergence favor thunderstorm development and supercells appear possible. Large hail, some of it potentially bigger than 2 inches, is the primary risk with these storms. While convection should initiate due to strong heating, thunderstorms will likely linger well into the overnight hours as an increase in the LLJ is expected during the latter half of the period into this portion of TX. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/15/2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 That cell near Sonora TX might have a TDS, it's a bit hard to tell but it also had a nice hook echo before ingesting some showers from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Hail-driven ENH added to the D1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 Frisco tor confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Seeing new cells developing between San Antonio and Houston TX, and a struggling cell near the Mexican border close to Del Rio. But they seem to be mostly heating/surface boundary induced as 500mb heights have slightly risen in South TX (above 580dm) this morning behind the departing shortwave causing the MCC in Dallas/Fort Worth area right now. The cells closer to Houston are showing some intensification/organization. But not sure if I can agree with SPC’s decision to upgrade to Enhanced risk on today’s outlook. Though they have upgraded to Slight risk now on midday D2 update (as I had also suspected yesterday for Saturday with the sufficient DL shear that had already been forecast in GFS & Euro runs all this week). - Deep 500mb Low is also still a bit too far out west over the California/Arizona/northern Mexico border. And shear parameters on this morning’s 12Z CRP observed sounding is not really conducive for a sustained supercell or mature MCS risk. But moreover cell clustering or MCCs (as been seen over northern half of TX today). It’s looking more like Saturday timeframe would be better for a more pronounced severe hail/wind potential over southern half of TX when the Low gets closer with better dynamics and cooling aloft coming in. Will see how 0Z sounding looks this evening, for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0054.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0259.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 One of these storms may have maxed out with 2" hail west of Houston. Not sure if they can generate a tornado threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 1 hour ago, Chinook said: One of these storms may have maxed out with 2" hail west of Houston. Not sure if they can generate a tornado threat. Must’ve been very prolific severe hail coming down in that same supercell when I saw Base reflectivity color max out on imagery over 80 DBZ (may have neared 90 DBZ seeing that tiny, light yellow speckle in right side blue strip area of 80 DBZ range), a short time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 one significant wind report from the Houston area with, once again, a possibility of 1" to 3" hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted March 15 Author Share Posted March 15 23 hours ago, Sydney Claridge said: We have a tornado warning in the Frisco, TX area now. Somewhat broad rotation but it bears close watching; the hail is a huge threat regardless of any tornadic activity, though. This storm ended up dropping a brief EF-0 over the UNT Frisco parking lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 large high-precipitation, southwest of Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0263.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 15 Share Posted March 15 Lots of CG positive strikes in that healthy supercell south of Houston, but nothing actually powerful on lightning analysis (all less than 150 kiloamps). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0055.html Another 3.00” max hailer about to come off Mexican terrain into TX right next to Laredo, going east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 000 WUUS54 KHGX 160829 SVRHGX TXC039-157-160900- /O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0037.240316T0829Z-240316T0900Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX329 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 The National Weather Service in League City has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Southeastern Fort Bend County in southeastern Texas... Central Brazoria County in southeastern Texas... * Until 400 AM CDT. * At 328 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Brazos Bend State Park, or 12 miles north of West Columbia, moving east at 30 mph. THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND AND CENTRAL BRAZORIA COUNTIES. HAZARD...Baseball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be severely injured. Expect shattered windows, extensive damage to roofs, siding, and vehicles. * Locations impacted include... Angleton, Holiday Lakes, Bailey`s Prairie, Bonney, Brazos Bend State Park, Rosharon, and Damon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 2931 9577 2943 9570 2934 9530 2907 9549 TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 290DEG 26KT 2933 9566 THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...2.75 IN WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH $$ Cady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 16 Share Posted March 16 I haven't seen VIL used as a large hail proxy in a while, but latest HRRR would seem to be dropping big hail with a deviant right turner towards Kingsville, where I have partied with college students from the local branch of the ag college. 3 km NAM in general agreement of generally calm until what I assume is a shortwave crossed the Rio Grande into South Texas around midnight. It might have been the Texas thread, but I commented to @Stx_Thunder that while Deep South Texas doesn't have the North Texas/Big Country/Panhandle reputation, it can have the occasional 'gorilla hail', that would get more attention if the population density away from the border towns was higher. Tonight might be one of those events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I haven't seen VIL used as a large hail proxy in a while, but latest HRRR would seem to be dropping big hail with a deviant right turner towards Kingsville, where I have partied with college students from the local branch of the ag college. 3 km NAM in general agreement of generally calm until what I assume is a shortwave crossed the Rio Grande into South Texas around midnight. It might have been the Texas thread, but I commented to @Stx_Thunder that while Deep South Texas doesn't have the North Texas/Big Country/Panhandle reputation, it can have the occasional 'gorilla hail', that would get more attention if the population density away from the border towns was higher. Tonight might be one of those events. That HRRR supercell depiction near the coast is not likely as both 0Z CRP & BRO observed soundings this evening are showing a quite stable boundary layer with strong mixed layer CIN up to 300 j/kg and an already high-based LFC around 700mb (and being late at night on that HRRR depiction, but that model has also been overdoing storms lately). It’d take a very strong shortwave to overcome all that inhibition already in place along with the building nocturnal. Not to mention also, it’s (historically) rare to have large hail producing supercells further east very near the lower/mid TX coast. It’s always much more common further west and north away from the coast. Seeing new storms popping up out west ahead of that next shortwave in Mex, but even lightning activity on satellite out there is not looking impressive so far this evening and the discrete cells seem to be struggling some. That next incoming shortwave doesn’t look strong. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=mex&band=EXTENT3&length=24&dim=undefined There'll probably be (elevated) storms in the region again later tonight or on Sunday morning and maybe a few stronger ones toward San Antonio and Houston areas with the front still hung up around there. But the atmosphere down here in STX is evidently still worked over and a bit subsident from an obviously strong shortwave last night that produced a large, slow moving thunder complex around here that lasted for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Looks like a watch is coming soon for S TX https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0267.html Mesoscale Discussion 0267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0939 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 Areas affected...parts of south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 170239Z - 170445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected across parts of south Texas late this evening, some of which may produce hail and gusty winds. A watch may be issued. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing in northeast Mexico in advance of a subtle shortwave trough apparent in water vapor satellite imagery. Across south Texas, some nocturnal surface stabilization has occurred. However, an ACARS profile from San Antonio and regional RAP profiles indicate the presence of a deep moist layer, which should continue to support convection even in the presence of a surface stable layer. Given diffuse low-level forcing for ascent, storms are expected to remain cellular, though some clustering is apparent in short-term model guidance. In addition, with deep CAPE profiles and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates along with long, straight hodographs (effective bulk shear values of 50-60 kts), large hail is expected to be the primary threat. Additionally, some gusty winds are possible with any clustering that occurs, though this is mitigated by the relatively moist profile. Short-term model guidance indicates storms will continue eastward across south Texas through the night before moving off the coast early in the morning. ..Supinie/Goss.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 There it is URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of southern Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1035 PM until 600 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms west of the Rio Grande will spread eastward into southern portions of Texas over the next couple of hours. Large hail will be the primary threat with these storms, though a few locally severe/damaging wind gusts will also be possible -- particularly across the more southern portions of the WW. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Cotulla TX to 70 miles south southwest of Alice TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Not seeing a real reason on SPC needing to post the severe thunderstorm watch tonight around here in STX. The Corpus Christi NWS office didn’t even bother to mention the typical “some thunderstorms may be severe” in the ‘rest of tonight’ section of zone forecast updates around midnight (because SPC posted that watch). The evidence of substantial boundary layer convective inhibition on Brownsville & Corpus 0Z soundings tonight caused the supercell near Zapata, TX to almost literally go kaput after it moved away from the Mexican border/lower Rio Grande river a short time ago. Still could see a good thunder show tonight around here, but more of the storms are individually cellular (unlike last night’s decent complex). Maybe a better chance or coverage of small hail here over the lower/mid TX coast. But seeing a more southwesterly flow now in the 850mb - 700mb layer on CRP vwp radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 I was staying about 10 miles S of the supercell Thursday. I watched it developing when I was doing the tourist FTW Stockyards, and their cattle drive of 10 or 12 longhorns who were clearly sedated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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