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In like a lamb--out like a Lion. March 1958 redux long range thread

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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paulythegun
paulythegun
osfan24
osfan24

LOL. Now we are.......two weeks away! And out to March 26!! If we just keep going long enough, we can get back to December!

Weather Will
Weather Will

WB 18Z GFS, still in the game....most of this will be snow tv east of the mountains with temps above freezing during the day on Tuesday.  8 days is enough time to get this low to intensify further and

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 6:24 PM, mdhokie said:

Yup! I'm headed up that way on the 24th. Hoping for some fresh snow!

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At this point I don’t even care about a powder day. But after a low snow season and the last few weeks of extreme heat there was a risk there wouldn’t be much of an April spring season. That’s being alleviated by a cold snowy second half of March. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 7:11 PM, WEATHER53 said:

If it has the characteristics of a Miller A, organized low pressure moving from GA to off mid Atlantic coast then that works.  Anything else hasn’t and won’t 

 

 

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Serious question. Do you think a STJ gulf storm with the associated heat that would come with it can work this late?  I was thinking our only chance would be a NS wave that amplified extremely far south due to the blocking. Like the 18z AI euro showed yesterday.  I know normally we want stj dominant waves but that’s in winter. This late would the boundary layer be able to get cold enough? 

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
  On 3/8/2024 at 8:38 PM, psuhoffman said:

Look at this beautiful rainstorm 

IMG_1810.thumb.gif.2f4c7782c5562702919226b309131394.gif

IMG_1809.thumb.png.a4dc8c40955a4379269d66b9f3dc9aec.png

we get destroyed by heavy CCB rain!  Stormy will be very happy 

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I think Ji would be happier with a 976 over Nagshead and a 1036 over Ogdensburg.    Me? I can be happy with either as long as we have rain or snow on the 19th, after all, my region has had a dry February and early March. We have been dry slotted again today.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 7:41 PM, stormy said:

I think Ji would be happier with a 976 over Nagshead and a 1036 over Ogdensburg.    Me? I can be happy with either as long as we have rain or snow on the 19th, after all, my region has had a dry February and early March. We have been dry slotted again today.

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Most of our big snows have an inverted trough feature to their west not a high.  That’s often what caused the extreme moisture transport needed to get big snow totals. A high being directly NW of the storm is actually pretty rare.  

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stormy

stormy

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 7:45 PM, psuhoffman said:

Most of our big snows have an inverted trough feature to their west not a high.  That’s often what caused the extreme moisture transport needed to get big snow totals. A high being directly NW of the storm is actually pretty rare.  

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I love this triviality on a drizzly Saturday afternoon!

Better luck next time.   There is no high to the west or NW.    

Nagshead is 75.62 longitude. D.C. is 77.03.   Ogdensburg is 75.48 longitude.  

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 7:35 PM, psuhoffman said:

Serious question. Do you think a STJ gulf storm with the associated heat that would come with it can work this late?  I was thinking our only chance would be a NS wave that amplified extremely far south due to the blocking. Like the 18z AI euro showed yesterday.  I know normally we want stj dominant waves but that’s in winter. This late would the boundary layer be able to get cold enough? 

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I think we need a modest low traveling from near Atlanta and ne toward East of  Norfolk .  Not worried about Gulf  effect on Stu because if it’s that juicy and if it gets involved with that we will be 40 and rain.  Can’t be a phase job or transfer either.  Will be really tough if it tries to onset between 10am to 5pm as we would need about -20 departure and that’s too tough.

But. After dark in March it can still snow big time the entire month when the low is right 

 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/9/2024 at 11:32 PM, WEATHER53 said:

I think we need a modest low traveling from near Atlanta and ne toward East of  Norfolk .  Not worried about Gulf  effect on Stu because if it’s that juicy and if it gets involved with that we will be 40 and rain.  Can’t be a phase job or transfer either.  Will be really tough if it tries to onset between 10am to 5pm as we would need about -20 departure and that’s too tough.

But. After dark in March it can still snow big time the entire month when the low is right 

 

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I actually went the other way. Absent an arctic airmass, which we just don’t have, I was thinking we need NS involvement. Without a phases bomb not sure how we cool the boundary layer enough.  I hope we get a test case for our theories. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 3/10/2024 at 1:39 AM, CAPE said:

Because advertised favorable h5 looks like this 10+ days out cannot be ignored, and almost always verify and deliver. We have the last 3 months as solid evidence. Give your lawn a close buzz in preparation.

1710957600-BePjFYTQ9tU.png

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That isn’t even that good a look. Implies the amplification happens too late and north. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/10/2024 at 2:23 AM, psuhoffman said:

I actually went the other way. Absent an arctic airmass, which we just don’t have, I was thinking we need NS involvement. Without a phases bomb not sure how we cool the boundary layer enough.  I hope we get a test case for our theories. 

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Depends on the exact outcome desired. A relatively small scale, well timed wave(at night) tracking underneath with some dynamics and cold/dry air in place can produce a moderate event in late March. It has happened here a few times. Its one of those deals where it snows hard with the temp falling to freezing overnight, and by mid afternoon the next day its 45 and pretty much gone.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
  On 3/10/2024 at 2:24 AM, psuhoffman said:

That isn’t even that good a look. Implies the amplification happens too late and north. 

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Most of the depicted looks we have seen this winter have been flawed in one way or another in the LR. Plenty of (probably) unwarranted excitement(me included) about the NAO domain in particular at range, as there were signs over a series of ens runs that it wasn't going to be a sustained legitimate block, but rather more of a transient, weaker feature induced by wave breaking. The guidance also largely duped us with the strength/position of the Aleutian low. That said, we fail plenty with so called 'ideal' patterns, and score in those that are flawed. As you know, weird things can happen as we get into early Spring, but snow in the lowlands has become more unlikely recently, esp in the cities.

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
  On 3/10/2024 at 3:12 AM, CAPE said:

Most of the depicted looks we have seen this winter have been flawed in one way or another in the LR. Plenty of (probably) unwarranted excitement(me included) about the NAO domain in particular at range, as there were signs over a series of ens runs that it wasn't going to be a sustained legitimate block, but rather more of a transient, weaker feature induced by wave breaking. The guidance also largely duped us with the strength/position of the Aleutian low. That said, we fail plenty with so called 'ideal' patterns, and score in those that are flawed. As you know, weird things can happen as we get into early Spring, but snow in the lowlands has become more unlikely recently, esp in the cities.

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Be real careful please  as you are stating that the models performed quite poorly. 

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WEATHER53

WEATHER53

Posted
Posted
  On 3/10/2024 at 5:11 AM, Deck Pic said:

Mid to late March has become "wintry" the last decade or so.  The below amounts were all measured by me at low elevation in a city.  It used to be pretty routine to stick a fork in winter after the first week of March.   

My point isn't that it will snow.  Just that getting snow in mid to late March actually happens.  We all lived it. 

3/12/22: 1.5"

3/21/18: 4.5"

3/13-14/17: 3.0"

3/25/14: 2.25"

3/16-17/14: 7.75"

3/25/13: 2.25"

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And the granddaddy of them all and number one event for me 

March 1993

Lived in Beltsville and got 13” even with rain and sleet mixing in, 40 moh  gusts constantly, 2pm  looked like 15 minutes before dark , record low barometer for me that nothing has been close to since 28.16”

I think DCA got 6.7” and up around Frederick close to 20

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