Ji Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 lets go! PSU said March 58 would be a rainstorm in todays climate....and---he appears to be right 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Shouldn’t this be pinned? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Shouldn’t this be pinned? it really should. I have been calling for a storm in this time frame now since November haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Ji said: it really should. I have been calling for a storm in this time frame now since November haha Drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Look at this beautiful rainstorm we get destroyed by heavy CCB rain! Stormy will be very happy 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 There could be some instability in meso banding. We could even see localized thunder rain! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 I’m excited for the possibility of urban street flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 But in seriousness @Ji the low is 985 off OC and it’s 41 in DC at the height of the storm. It’s not even close! It would need to be a ridiculously anomalous event to overcome the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But in seriousness @Ji the low is 985 off OC and it’s 41 in DC at the height of the storm. It’s not even close! It would need to be a ridiculously anomalous event to overcome the temps Could be quite the paste job for places further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 4 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Could be quite the paste job for places further west. Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet sure! PSU---remember the old Euro--from like 2 weeks ago. Wouldnt that imply a colder solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet sure! For those who want to see snow in marginal events with low pressure hugging the coast- especially in Spring- they know what to do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There could be some instability in meso banding. We could even see localized thunder rain! its not really a perfect track. Its like more like a march 1993 track right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 1 minute ago, CAPE said: That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan. haha--those lowland people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Even for my area it’s 35 during the height. It’s definitely snow but I doubt much accumulation at those temps. Places at or above 2000 feet Probably west of Hancock ends up with a 1' + if it played out like the Euro AI shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 5 minutes ago, Ji said: haha--those lowland people Those people includes you. Or did you move? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 I see Euro AI on Tropical Tidbits comes in like the Icon. Always missing the critical frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 Those people includes you. Or did you move?Im 15 minutes drive to mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 8 Author Share Posted March 8 Probably west of Hancock ends up with a 1' + if it played out like the Euro AI shows Pd2003 was initially modeled as rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Pd2003 was initially modeled as rain PD? this would be closer to Easter. We always get KUs near Easter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 Even if it’s a rainstorm it’s still a pretty interesting test for this model. It’s been showing a large system at this range for few runs now . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Even if it’s a rainstorm it’s still a pretty interesting test for this model. It’s been showing a large system at this range for few runs now . It’s very likely too late for a lowland snow, but I’m interested in the AIFS test case, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, CAPE said: That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan. 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: It’s very likely too late for a lowland snow, but I’m interested in the AIFS test case, too. Yea, verily, let it be so. I think @nj2va might be one of the few to agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 8 Share Posted March 8 2 hours ago, Ji said: PSU---remember the old Euro--from like 2 weeks ago. Wouldnt that imply a colder solution? Boundary is pretty scorched on the op too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 2 hours ago, Ji said: its not really a perfect track. Its like more like a march 1993 track right? No it’s a perfect track for a 95 snowstorm if it wasn’t late March. I posted the mslp animation. Go through the KU book. You’ll find plenty similar tracks. Problem is it’s March in a warmer climate. 2 hours ago, CAPE said: That low is inland actually. Pretty low chance for frozen with that track in the lowlands. Not in late March. Head to Canaan. You’re east of the bay. Your ideal track is east of 95 and frankly you want a track that would fringe me. That track is inside for you. But if this was winter with a normal colder airmass that is a perfect track for a big snow along 95. Maybe it mixes with sleet as is common along 95. But as you said it’s not mid winter it’s late March. Thing is 95 doesn’t want a further east track. That wouldn’t help. There is no low level cold anywhere. We want a tighly tucked bomb. We just need it to be even more amplified. 975 maybe! 970? Yea that’s crazy but that’s what it would take to overcome the time of year and low level crap air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 4 hours ago, Ji said: it really should. I have been calling for a storm in this time frame now since November haha Early prediction for next winter- moderate to heavy snow event in the first 10 days of January for the lowlands. Easy. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 9 Author Share Posted March 9 18z aifs is def snow. May not stick but it’s snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 18z aifs is def snow. May not stick but it’s snow lol850s very cold… surface 1-2 degrees Celsius over freezing. Concur with the analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 9 Share Posted March 9 14 minutes ago, Ji said: 18z aifs is def snow. May not stick but it’s snow lol Remember what I said. Give me 2 conserving runs where more than one major global shows snow and I’ll pay more attention. I will accept the AIFS in that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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