40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, 512high said: Ray, maybe a page or so back, didn't you mention December looks good, "January" looks ugly, Feb-Mar look great after reloading? Unless new data your seeing vs a few weeks ago? I never said Feb and March look great. I said maybe blocking tries in March. The NAO should average Positive in January, but there could be some carry over from December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles I'm just getting a rise out of you. I don't see a -NAO in the seasonal mean or an east based event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 On 8/26/2024 at 8:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The only ugly month I see on the CANSIPS is January....reloads for Feb and March after a nice December. But even January doesn't lose the Poleward SAleutian ridging, so while shitty in the mean, I bet that is still a nice week mixed in there. Ray this is what I was looking at back Aug. 26th, ,,,,today you say a toaster bath for February, on the 26th of August you mentioned reloads for Feb and March, when you use the term "reload"I assume favorable. That's what I 'am trying to articulate if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7 Author Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, 512high said: Ray this is what I was looking at back Aug. 26th, ,,,,today you say a toaster bath for February, on the 26th of August you mentioned reloads for Feb and March, when you use the term "reload"I assume favorable. That's what I 'am trying to articulate if you will. I was describing that model output...nothing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8 Author Share Posted September 8 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The new NMME is out FWIW: This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip. How does the historic +NAO that we’ve seen this summer factor into your winter thoughts, if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: How does the historic +NAO that we’ve seen this summer factor into your winter thoughts, if at all? I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. I'll have to do an updated analysis this week.. I think it's coming in around 0.65-0.70 for DJFM Nice write up on here by the way. It was a good read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:13 PM It's coming 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 07:16 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 07:16 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's coming Plowing the human feces off the road? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Wednesday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:14 PM Down here, the acorns aren't all that plentiful, but damn they are big! A clear sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:28 PM On 9/8/2024 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. We are +0.50 right now for DJFM (with 0.54 sd, 50% chance DJFM NAO comes in -0.04 to +1.04). A little less positive than I expected. In May we had a negative reading, so the warm pool later in the year has only been a part of the total measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 01:52 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 01:52 AM 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We are +0.50 right now for DJFM (with 0.54 sd, 50% chance DJFM NAO comes in -0.04 to +1.04). A little less positive than I expected. In May we had a negative reading, so the warm pool later in the year has only been a part of the total measurement. Still in line with my thoughts....excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM On 9/6/2024 at 3:22 PM, snowman19 said: Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles Pretty much sums up all the X weatherman in the age range of 25-35 who just graduated college or grad school and think they know it all. All are smug and condescending and block happy if you question them, even in a respectful way. Webb blocked me for asking him to describe what went wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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