40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, 512high said: Ray, maybe a page or so back, didn't you mention December looks good, "January" looks ugly, Feb-Mar look great after reloading? Unless new data your seeing vs a few weeks ago? I never said Feb and March look great. I said maybe blocking tries in March. The NAO should average Positive in January, but there could be some carry over from December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 6 Author Share Posted September 6 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles I'm just getting a rise out of you. I don't see a -NAO in the seasonal mean or an east based event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 On 8/26/2024 at 8:03 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: The only ugly month I see on the CANSIPS is January....reloads for Feb and March after a nice December. But even January doesn't lose the Poleward SAleutian ridging, so while shitty in the mean, I bet that is still a nice week mixed in there. Ray this is what I was looking at back Aug. 26th, ,,,,today you say a toaster bath for February, on the 26th of August you mentioned reloads for Feb and March, when you use the term "reload"I assume favorable. That's what I 'am trying to articulate if you will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 7 Author Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, 512high said: Ray this is what I was looking at back Aug. 26th, ,,,,today you say a toaster bath for February, on the 26th of August you mentioned reloads for Feb and March, when you use the term "reload"I assume favorable. That's what I 'am trying to articulate if you will. I was describing that model output...nothing more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 8 Author Share Posted September 8 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: The new NMME is out FWIW: This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 8 Share Posted September 8 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks like 2007-2008....could work with that. +1F either slightly above average precip. How does the historic +NAO that we’ve seen this summer factor into your winter thoughts, if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9 Author Share Posted September 9 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: How does the historic +NAO that we’ve seen this summer factor into your winter thoughts, if at all? I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 9 Share Posted September 9 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. I'll have to do an updated analysis this week.. I think it's coming in around 0.65-0.70 for DJFM Nice write up on here by the way. It was a good read. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 It's coming 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's coming Plowing the human feces off the road? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 Down here, the acorns aren't all that plentiful, but damn they are big! A clear sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted September 11 Share Posted September 11 On 9/8/2024 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive. We are +0.50 right now for DJFM (with 0.54 sd, 50% chance DJFM NAO comes in -0.04 to +1.04). A little less positive than I expected. In May we had a negative reading, so the warm pool later in the year has only been a part of the total measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 12 Author Share Posted September 12 4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We are +0.50 right now for DJFM (with 0.54 sd, 50% chance DJFM NAO comes in -0.04 to +1.04). A little less positive than I expected. In May we had a negative reading, so the warm pool later in the year has only been a part of the total measurement. Still in line with my thoughts....excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted September 12 Share Posted September 12 On 9/6/2024 at 3:22 PM, snowman19 said: Webb completely blew last winter and the winter before. And he was arrogant, nasty and condescending as hell about it. All of the research papers he posted last winter didn’t help his monumental bust on February and March. He was so sure of it too. Absolutely confident in a huge Feb and Mar and was mocking everyone who doubted him like they were stupid. Back in 2022, he completely blew December. Guaranteed a historic I-95 KU, quoted study after study proving how right he was going to be. Then he went on to blow January when he was sure a +TNH pattern was going to set up. He never humbles Pretty much sums up all the X weatherman in the age range of 25-35 who just graduated college or grad school and think they know it all. All are smug and condescending and block happy if you question them, even in a respectful way. Webb blocked me for asking him to describe what went wrong. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 As Jackie Gleason used to say, "and away we go!" (OK, there are about 5 people on this board who have any clue about that) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 58 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: As Jackie Gleason used to say, "and away we go!" (OK, there are about 5 people on this board who have any clue about that) I was just going through my ipad pictures that have snow or winter tagged and I had better see some this year. I will travel to outer mongolia if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 17 Share Posted September 17 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: As Jackie Gleason used to say, "and away we go!" (OK, there are about 5 people on this board who have any clue about that) I have not started my annual and we begin thread. Maybe tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Author Share Posted September 18 FWIW, 1970, which is one of my polar analogs, looks like a pretty decent JJA H5 analog. Definitely would not be suprised to see a modified version of 12/70 play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 18 Share Posted September 18 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: FWIW, 1970, which is one of my polar analogs, looks like a pretty decent JJA H5 analog. Definitely would not be suprised to see a modified version of 12/70 play out. All time #2 winter here, 144.90", Even 75% of that winter would be well above normal, 50% would be normal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Author Share Posted September 18 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just starting to mess with analog composites....here is my first stab at JJA H5...JJA 2024 vs my early matching composite. Looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 18 Author Share Posted September 18 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: What is interesting is the composite rolled forward compared to the JFM CANSIPS 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: CFS....now I know I have it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am seeing some signs of a pretty significant +PNA/+NAO that may drive things in January, before the Aleutian ridge retrogrades and puts an end to the party for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 So you’re saying Feb is toast, here in September? Wow…that’s pretty bold. Kind of hope that prediction goes the way of this hurricane season… nothing personal though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So you’re saying Feb is toast, here in September? Wow…that’s pretty bold. Kind of hope that prediction goes the way of this hurricane season… nothing personal though. Well, first of all, I never make hurricane season predictions...only prominent individual storms (I know that part wasn't directed at me personally). Secondly, I didn't say Feb was toast...I said the PNA party ends. You get very defensive whenever you perceive anything as unfavorable for winter activities. It may be toast for portions of the east coast for sure...but its September, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 meanwhile ... i'm seeing a winter hemisphere characterized by something between a vestige and an out right rudimentary repeat of the last 6 or 7 of them so there it is. either a seasonal forecast write-up worthy of a dissertation submission, or that statement. to me, as long as either end up with that same principle, both score. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: meanwhile ... i'm seeing a winter hemisphere characterized by something between a vestige and an out right rudimentary repeat of the last 6 or 7 of them so there it is. either a seasonal forecast write-up worthy of a dissertation submission, or that statement. to me, as long as either end up with that same principle, both score. lol Yea, the devil is in the details....obviously its not going to be a 2015 orgie....but is it more like last year or 2020-2021, 2021-2022....or even 2022-2023 with a bit better luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 Another thing I have come to learn is that each time you think you have anything all figured out, your ass gets handed to you...and at somepoint the persistence forecasting crew will get a hot serving of tushy platter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 19 Share Posted September 19 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, first of all, I never make hurricane season predictions...only prominent individual storms (I know that part wasn't directed at me personally). Secondly, I didn't say Feb was toast...I said the PNA party ends. You get very defensive whenever you perceive anything as unfavorable for winter activities. It may be toast for portions of the east coast for sure...but its September, dude. Oh no, you misunderstood my point. Not getting defensive at all, and I apologize if it came across that way. Perhaps I misunderstood your part about the PNA party? I was not trying to be defensive one bit. And I wasn’t talking about your individual hurricane predictions either…I meant the pros official call which has gone down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 19 Author Share Posted September 19 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Oh no, you misunderstood my point. Not getting defensive at all, and I apologize if it came across that way. Perhaps I misunderstood your part about the PNA party? I was not trying to be defensive one bit. And I wasn’t talking about your individual hurricane predictions either…I meant the pros official call which has gone down in flames. I just meant "party" as in +PNA...probably should have worded that better. I just mean latitude will be probably be needed more in February than January. Obviously this is all just specualtion based on some preliminary stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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